We should not be like Stockton California and we get the government we deserve

Jeff Hartline

If you do not subscribe to The Tennesseean you missed two good opinion pieces in last Sunday's newspaper from local conservative luminaries.

 Jeff Harline writes, Nashville is stuck with the government it deserves. He identifies four categories of voters from the engaged to the most apathetic and says that in the recent referendum on the transit proposal and mayoral race apathy was on full display, "when voters overwhelmingly defeated the tax increase, but voted for the major candidate who pushed the tax increase."  I share Jeff's opinion. I am constantly amassed how little people seem to care about local issues and how little they pay attention.


Unfortunately, The Tennesseean did not save this article online (which I find hard to believe) or they have such a  poor search engine (which they do) that I can't find it. Harline is a former Republican candidate for the District 5 congressional seat, is a political activist and publishes the online Tennessee Spotlight.

Carol Swain

Carol Swain, recent candidate for mayor, former Vanderbilt professor, author, activist and TV commentator writes, Why Nashville should not be like Stockton, California.  She writes, "Stockton, California and Nashville are mid-sized cities run by liberal Democrats. Local leaders in each city have championed high-dollar projects that ultimately work against the public interest. As a result of this extravagant spending, both cities have found themselves in fragile financial positions. Music City would be wise not to follow in the footsteps of Stockton, which declared bankruptcy in 2012." 

I share her concern that we are headed down that path.

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Why I am totally disgusted with the Tennessee Republican Party.

I am pretty much disgusted with the Tennessee Republican Party.  I became disgusted several years ago when Mark Winslow worked as a paid campaign manager to elect to office Mellissa Blackburn who was running for Davidson County Judge Division II has a Democrat. She had four Democrat opponents and a Republican opponent named Marian Fodyce. Winslow served on the State Executive Committee of the Republican Party.  By virtue of his position on the State Party, he served on the Executive Committee of the County Party.  As such, he was in a position to know Republican strategy, have access to polling data, and a vote in determining how much funding to provide the Republican candidate. (For more on the Winslow story see  here, and hear.)

I would think anyone could see that, that situation is an obvious conflict. It also clearly violates Party bylaws. The Party could have removed him; but it did not.  The Party could have kept him from seeking reelection to the SEC; it did not. In disgust, for a couple years, I did not contribute to the Party or attend the Statement's Dinner.  As time passed however, despite my  disgust for the Party's failure to act to remove Winslow, I was ready to swallow hard and just accept it and reason that helping advance the Party and elect Republicans was more important than my resentment at this one failing. Then, however, the situation with Taylor Ferrell emerged. My disgust is renewed and stronger than before. While I am going to continue to support candidates and causes I believe in, I am withholding my support for the TRP until I feel there is some integrity returned to the Party.

Taylor Ferrell is a paid contractor with the TRP who is working to coordinate travel and other logistics for those delegates attending the Republican National Convention.  She is also married to Walker Ferrell who is the TRP Political Director.  Taylor Ferrell is also sole proprietor of Southland Advantage and Southland Advantage has clients who are running in the primary against incumbent Republican office holders. Twenty-seven Republican office holders signed a letter calling for Walter Ferrell's resignation due to this conflict. To see who signed the letter and for more on this follow this link.

I support those calling for Walker Ferrell's resignation and the termination of the contract with Taylor Ferrell.  Those defending Taylor Ferrell say she is not an employee of the Party but is a contractor doing work for the Party and is not violating Party bylaws by having clients seeking to defeat incumbent Republicans. That to me appears to be a distinction without a difference.  She is a "paid staff member" weather she gets a W-2 or a 1099 at the end of the year. Those defending Walker Ferrell claim it is his wife with clients, not he. That may also be true but husbands and wives share information and income.  That is an obvious violation of the spirit of the bylaws if not the letter of the bylaws. (For more on this see this link and this link.)

One of those leading the effort to get Taylor and Walker Ferrell fired and who escalated the conflict by calling for the immediate termination of Ryan Haynes as Chairman and  Brent Leatherwood as Executive Director is Jeff Hartline.  Jeff Harline has been a long time conservative activist and run in the Republican primary in 2010 for the Fifth Congressional District seat.  He is a a current member of the County Executive Committee of Wilson County.  Hartline also heads a consulting firm working to elect  conservative candidates in contested primaries. Is that not a violation of Party Rules? To read more about Jeff Harline's roll in this, follow this link

So, here we have two factions, both with conflicts of interest and both violating Party bylaws.  Winslow is part of the effort to get rid of Ferrell also.  This is a case of 'the pot calling the kettle black.'  No one has clean hands.  I am totally disgusted.  Those rallying around Ferrell are often considered "establishment" Republicans, whatever that means, and those like Harline and Winslow are considered "conservative," "hard line," or "tea party Republicans," whatever those terms mean. When Donald Trump who has very liberal views on various issues is favored by people who consider themselves more conservative than the establishment and "the establishment" ended up supporting Ted Cruz, I am not sure these labels tell us much. Anyway, I really don't care which faction one is aligned with, if one is using their Party position to earn money as a campaign consultant or is violating the rules or the intent of the rules, they should resign in shame or be removed. I say, a pox on both your houses. If any one I have mentioned, or anyone else feels I got the facts wrong please feel free to leave a comment or sent me a more lengthy essay and I will publish it. I want to be fair to everyone. If I should not be disgusted, tell me why.

From reading the bylaws, it appears to me that members of the State Executive Committee and staff of the Party and County Executive Committee members are not permitted to support a Democrat against a Republican or to support one Republican over another in a primary.  Now if this only means you can't use your title while doing so, then that needs to be clarified. I do not think that is what it means.  Below are excepts from the TRP bylaws with relevant portions highlighted. For a complete copy of the bylaws follow this link.  

 

For more on this conflict, here are some copies of Facebook exchanges:

Update:  Since posted the above, I have heard from Jeff Hartline who told me he has not violating any bylaws by engaging in his political activity, that County Executive Committee members are not included in the prohibition on endorsing in a primary. I have also spoken to a member of the SEC who said that what Taylor Ferrell is doing is not prohibited, saying "staff" included employees and not people who were self-employed that the Party contracted with to provide services. This SEC member also said Jeff Harline was not guilty of violating any bylaws.

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Campaign Consultant Accuses State GOP of Conflict of Interest

Says State GOP Chairman Haynes Should Apologize Publicly to Elected Republicans

Press Release, NASHVILLE, TN -  Today, Jeff Hartline, Campaign Consultant to Tennessee conservative candidates is calling for State Republican Party Chairman, Ryan Haynes, to publicly apologize to several elected Republicans for his ignoring obvious conflicts of interest between State GOP Political Director Walker Ferrell’s wife and Federal and State House seat challengers.

The obvious conflict of interest was made public back in April when a letter signed by more than two dozen Tennessee House members, and addressed to Chairman Haynes, objected to the inappropriate relationship between Taylor Ferrell and the State Party.  Ms. Ferrell, wife of Political Director Walker Ferrell, had received a contract from the State GOP and was officing part time in the GOP’s 21^st Avenue offices, while at the same time working with Republican challengers running against Incumbent Republicans.

Hartline said, “This situation is part and parcel of the problems that have existed in the State GOP for years.  These officials appear to be tone-deaf to the people that have given them a supermajority in the State House and State Senate.  While their ‘real’ job is to help Republicans beat Democrats across the state, the races they have managed against Democrats for the past two cycles have been absolute disasters. Their record is so bad it almost looks like they are losing on purpose. Keep in mind these are the same folks that tell candidates who are challenging Democrats that the State GOP will not ‘help’ them if the candidate considers employing an ‘Outside’ Consultant.”

Despite calls for the firing of the Political Director, Haynes has refused to even acknowledge anything wrong has been done.  Apparently, this is just “business as usual”.

“As far back as February, Ms. Ferrell was the RSVP contact for a fundraiser for one of these challengers,” said Hartline.  “I guess I was not aware that the State Party had decided to involve itself in primaries and take a leading role in defeating solid conservative Incumbents.  The fact that Ms. Ferrell was on the State Party payroll, officing in their headquarters, and living with their political Director while at the same time consulting with challengers to Incumbent Republican legislators did not seem to be a conflict of interest at all to Chairman Haynes.”

He concluded, “If he knew this was occurring, Haynes should himself resign.  If his ethics will not allow him to do that, he should at least issue a formal public apology to the Republican Incumbents he has used the State Party to attack in this manner. 

“Additionally, these challengers should also issue public apologies to their Incumbent opponents for their collusion in this matter since there was no way that they could not have known this was a blatant conflict of interest.”

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Tennessee Freedom Coalition listed by U. S. Army as a hate group

The Tennessee Freedom Coalition is a conservative organization headquartered here in Nashville. Recently, a Fort Campbell Army colonel advised his subordinates to be on the lookout for soldiers who might be members of “domestic hate groups.” "When we see behaviors that are inconsistent with Army Values," he wrote, " – don’t just walk by – do the right thing and address the concern before it becomes a problem."  On his list of "domestic hate groups" was the Tennessee Freedom Coalition. (link)

Who is TFC?  On their website they respond to the question, "who are we?" like this:

The Tennessee Freedom Coalition is a 501(c)4 non-profit organization designed to educate Tennesseans on policy matters relating to equitable tax structures, education reform, vibrant economic paradigms, immigration issues, limited government, health care, Islamic radicalization, job creation, and our proper constitutional relationship to the federal government.

There Chairman and Executive Director is Andrew Miller.  Andy Miller is well known to local conservative political activist. He is a wealthy individual and a major Republican  fundraiser and well-connected in Republican circles. Second in command and also holding the title of "Executive Director" is Lou Ann Zelenik. Zelenik has ran in a Republican primary twice against Diane Black in very continuous, hotly contested races. She was also a leader in opposition to the establishment of the Muslim Mosque in Murfreesboro.

Another well know members of Board of TFC is Jeff Hartline who  ran in the 5th District Republican Primary for the U.S. Congress in 2010 and who led Kerry Roberts’ successful 18th District Senate campaign. Another name you may recognize is that of Glen Hughes who was, until recently, Chairman of the Tennessee Republican Assembly, a group that thinks they are the only real Republicans and all other Republicans are RINOs.

The list of advocacy issue that TFC focuses on is below: 

• Educate citizens on the realities of Sharia and stop the growth of Radical Islam
• Promote Positive education reform
• Promote a fairer and flatter tax structure for America
• Promote cultural cohesion by opposing Illegal Immigration
• Promote market-based healthcare reform
• Promote job creation In Tennessee by reducing government interference
• Promote a return to the Constitutional principles which made America the land of individual liberty
• Promote citizens rights to keep and bear arms
• Promote the Sanctity of Life for the unborn 

I agree with TFC on many issue. The issue that TFC has focused on most however, as far as I can tell, is the anti-Sharia movement. They sponsored  Geert Wilders'  appearance at the Cornerstone Church in Nashville last year. Wilders is controversial Netherlands politician know for his campaign against the "Islamisation" of the Netherlands. He attempted to ban the Quran in the Netherlands and he was, for a while, banned from entry into the United Kingdom because he was considered "a threat to society."

In addition to making the Army's list as a hate group, TFC is also on the list of the Southern Poverty Law Center as a hate group.

Is TFC a "hate group?" Are they a danger to society? Not in my opinion.  I take issue with their anti-Islam zealotry and think it borders on spreading irrational fear.  In my view, TFC and others in the anti-Sharia movement tend to paint all Muslims with the same brush.  I recognize a broad spectrum of Islamic thought. There is diversity among Muslims. I believe that most Muslims can assimilate into American society and be good Americans and I do not believe all Muslims are fundamentalist Jihadist.  Neither do I thing that we are in any danger of waking up one day soon living under Sharia law.

On the other hand, I recognize that there are terrorist sympathizers among some in the Muslim community. We should be concerned about the establishment of schools that teach a radical brand of Islam. I hope the FBI is keeping tabs on potential terrorist and I support restricting the immigration of undesirables. However, I believe Muslims have as much right to build a Mosque as do Mormons to build a temple. I am not comfortable with the tone of the anti-Muslim message of TFC.  That however does not make them a "hate group"  I know some of these people. Jeff Hartline is a good guy.  I would vote for him for US Congress and would prefer Jeff Hartline representing me in Congress over Jim Cooper. While I think TFC is off-base on some things, they are not a "hate group."

Another "hate group" on the Army's list and the list of the Southern Poverty Law Center is the Family Research Council. Apparently FRC made the list because they believe they homosexuality is a sin. View there website. This is a group of good Christians who take their faith seriously.

The Southern Poverty Law Center is a private group and can name anyone they want as a hate group. I can start my own list of "hate groups" and I can list the Southern Poverty Law Center if I should want to do so. Unfortunately, much of the mainstream press gives credence to the SPLC list and if a group makes that list they are considered a hate group by many.  I, however, take making the SPLC list with a grain of salt.  Along with neo-Nazis the SPLC include many who are simply politically incorrect by mainstream liberal standards.

Being on an Army list is a different matter than being on the SPLC list. I think it is dangerous when the Army can create a list of "hate groups" and have on that list groups like the FRC and TFC along side violence-prone groups like the Ku Klux Klan. The army's list may become a standard that is use by others to label as subversives those who belong to or attend functions of groups like the FRC or TFC. A list like this can be used to stifle descent. Will churches that teach homosexuality is a sin be added to the list?  Will those that have views outside of politically correct mainstream liberalism live in fear of being added to the list?  Will conservative activist monitor what they say in order to avoid being added to the list?  A government list of "hate groups" is dangerous. A greater threat to our liberty than TFC or FRC is for the Army to arbitrarily, without any standards for doing so, and without due process, to create a list of domestic hate groups.

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Bill Hobbs: Hall Pass

by Bill Hobbs, reposted with permission from Bill Hobbs Facebook page

The nomination of David Hall as the Republican candidate in Tennessee's 5th congressional district is the result of multiple failures - on the part of the news media, which utterly failed to do its job, and by the Tennessee Republican Party, which appears to have already conceded the November election to incumbent Democrat Jim Cooper.

With Hall - a nominee unable to raise money and already mired in an FEC probe into a $200,000 campaign transaction with a corporation of murky identity and ties to another company alleged to have scammed people online for millions of dollars - the state GOP has a ready-made excuse to do what you know the current party leadership wants to do: concede the 5th district and direct all of its congressional efforts and re$ources to holding the 3rd district seat and winning the 6th and 8th district seats.

In a year when Democrats are being defeated even in very-blue places like Hawaii and Massachusetts and independent polling shows that only 23% of likely voters want Jim Cooper re-elected, Jim Cooper is vulnerable. And if the GOP is to win 40 seats nationally and take control of Congress, it is going to have to defeat a few incumbents like Cooper whose district leans Democrat but only slightly.

But you can't win if you don't play and the Tennessee GOP just got a Hall pass to skip out on the 5th district race.

The Media's Failure:
The Tennessean wrote only three stories about candidates in the 5th District Race - a profile of Jeff Hartline, the only candidate who showed the ability to raise large amounts of money from donors; CeCe Heil, an attorney and the only female in the race, upon her endorsement by Sarah Palin; and a story about David Hall, whom they covered as a novelty act because several Hall family members were running for every elected office in town.

Newspaper folks often talk importantly about their duty to inform the public, and their important role in our democracy because of the need to have an informed electorate. Yet they virtually ignored the 5th district race, ignored 7 of the 11 candidates entirely, and did not cover any of the many multiple-candidate forums.

They failed to adequately inform the electorate. Readers got plenty of coverage of Paul McCartney's Nashville concert, on which the future direction of American government policy and the economy does not rest.

The Hall, Heil and Hartline campaign had very different media strategies.

The media strategy of the Hartline campaign, with which I worked*, was issues-focused. We released numerous news releases, statements and blog posts focused on current news and issues like the economy, jobs, the spiraling national debt and more. The blog posts, written by Jeff Hartline, were issues-focused. Jeff believed in talking to voters about serious issues.

We got some play online, but in retrospect it was futile to think the news media had the slightest interest in covering the race, much less making the coverage about issues.

The Heil campaign media strategy revolved around touting Heil's endorsement by various national political figures and social-conservative groups. To some degree it worked, though her focus was misdirected with most voters focused on jobs, the economy and federal spending this election.

The Hall strategy involved avoiding any event where voters would have a chance to compare him to the other candidates, while blanketing the district with signs for four different Hall family members all named Hall running for four different offices, hoping to brand "Hall" into voters' subconscious. It was a cynical strategy based on creating name recognition while avoiding media or voter scrutiny.

Hall's campaign slogan belied the hollowness of his campaign: "Just vote Hall."

Heil and Hartline believed voters were smart and wanted to talk about issues. They went to the forums. Hall bet that in a crowded field, needing only a plurality, he could win by finding enough low-information voters who vote based on whose yard signs they see the most. With four Halls running for office, voters saw lots of Hall yard signs.

The Hartline and Heil strategies were undermined by the media deciding to virtually ignore the race.

Hall's low-information strategy - hide from voters and hope to win based on name repetition - worked because there were no candidates in the race who had high name recognition. Hall's strategy would have failed utterly if there had been a candidate with name recognition based on actual accomplishment in the public eye rather than mere repetition of a common, memorable last name - or if media had not abdicated its duty to properly cover the race and inform the electorate.

The Tennessee Republican Party's Failure:
The Tennessee GOP tried early on to recruit a wealthy candidate to run against Cooper. When that failed, the party took a hands-off stance, doing nothing to try to narrow the field from 11 down to four or five candidates who both had a realistic chance to win and fit the electorate's mood on the issues.

With 11 candidates in the race, the TV news decided it easier to just not cover the race. Too many candidates, can't cover 'em all - so they covered none of them.

Just one example: WKRN taped a long interview on healthcare reform with Hartline in the spring, to air on their Sunday morning politics show, then canceled the segment rather than have to cover the rest of the candidates.

Had the Tennessee GOP worked early to shrink the field, perhaps by encouraging some of the obvious 2nd-tier candidates to run for local office instead, the media would have found it easy enough to cover the race.

But, no.

And so the GOP nominee is a guy who can't raise money, is in trouble with the FEC, and who avoids events and forums that candidates typically do.

Democrats could not have picked a better candidate to face Jim Cooper.

Bill Hobbs was the Communication Director for the Jeff Hartline campaign.

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Hartline Statement on Election Results

August 6, 2010, NASHVILLE - Jeff Hartline and the Hartline for Congress campaign have issued the following statement regarding Thursday night's election results:

The Hartline for Congress campaign congratulates David Hall on winning the Republican nomination for Congress in the 5th District. Although Jeff Hartline did not win the nomination, he and the entire Hartline for Congress campaign remain committed to the campaign's primary goal: the defeat of Jim Cooper.

"I got into this race for the same reason my fellow candidates did – we all believe it is time to offer voters an alternative to the government-growing, debt-spiraling, tax-raising, job-killing policies that Congressman Jim Cooper has voted for time and time again during his long career in Congress," said Jeff Hartline, who made history this year as the first Republican candidate ever to raise six figures in campaign contributions to challenge Jim Cooper in the 5th district.

"I want to thank each and every person who voted for me or contributed to my campaign in any way,” Hartline said. "Your faith in me is humbling. Congressman Cooper is long past due for a serious challenge to his re-election. While I will not be the nominee running to defeat Jim Cooper in the general election, I assure you that I will continue to battle for the things we believe in. As the great American Revolutionary War naval commander John Paul Jones said, I have not yet begun to fight!"

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5th District Election Returns

Below are the results for the Republican 5th Congressional race.

David Hall (R)--------11,930---28%
Jeffery Hartline (R)---10,005--23%
CeCe Heil (R)---------9,767-----23%
Vijay Kumar (R)------3,157-----7%
Bob Schwartz (R)-----2,377-----5%
Lonnie Spivak (R)----1,529-----4%
Jarod Scott (R)-------1,382-----3%
Patrick Miranda (R)--1,210-----3%
Tracy Tarum (R)-----1,128-----3%
Bob Ries (R)------------561-----1%
Alvin Strauss (R)-------320-----1%

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Hartline: We did not pay for the Minuteman endorsement

From Wes Hartline:
Our campaign did not pay anything for the Minuteman Project endorsement. We made no contributions nor were we contacted before the endorsement other than being asked to send our website, blog and policy positions to the Project.

I would appreciate an amended blog post on that, Rod. If left as is, it appears to the casual reader that we had to pay for an endorsement, and that is completely false.

Comment: I have not alleged that the Hartline campaign paid for the Minuteman Project endorsement and the Hartline campaign is not alleging that I made that charge. I have not searched the Hartline financial disclosures to see if they have paid a consulting fee to Election Impact Group or any other firm associated with Jim Gilchrist. I believe Jeff Hartline to be an honorable person and I am accepting his statement at face value. I am pleased to post the above message from the Hartline campaign.

I did post as written the press release from the Hartline campaign in which they announced their endorsement from the Minuteman Project. In a separate post, I posted a link from Politico that tells of serious and credible allegations that the Minuteman Project endorsement was for sale. If you have not read that article please do.

While I have absolutely no reason to believe and don't believe the Hartline campaign paid for the Minuteman Project endorsement, if I was a candidate for Congress and received the Minuteman Project endorsement, instead of bragging about it, I think I would keep it a secret.

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Minutemen Founder Endorses Hartline in 5th District

NASHVILLE, August 3, 2010, press realease from Hartline for Congress – Congressional candidate Jeff Hartline has received the endorsement of one of America’s foremost leaders in the fight to stop illegal immigration.

Jim Gilchrist, Founder and President of the Minuteman Project (www.minutemanproject.com), the nation's leading grassroots activist organization on the issue of immigration reform and border security, announced today that the organization is endorsing Hartline in the congressional race in Tennessee’s 5th District.

Gilchrist cited Hartline’s strong stances on securing our borders, denying illegals any form of amnesty, and cracking down on taxpayer-funded benefits that attract illegals to the United States. Hartline is a “real leader” who, as a member of Congress, “will ensure that Congress actually enforce current immigration laws to protect the jobs of Americans and the dollars of taxpayers,” Gilchrist said.

The Hartline campaign welcomed the endorsement. “Jim Gilchrist and the Minuteman Project are at the forefront of the fight to stop illegal immigration, and as a member of Congress I will work with them and other like-minded Americans to make the federal government enforce our nation’s immigration laws and secure our borders, and to stop any attempt to grant amnesty.”
“For too long law abiding Americans have grown tired of watching the political establishment lack the will to enforce our nation's laws when it comes to border security and immigration policy,” Gilchrist said. He urged voters to send Hartline to Congress “to demand the Federal Government enforce our laws and secure our borders” so that America can “begin to end the chaos of illegal immigration.”

Jim Gilchrist founded the multi-ethnic Minuteman Project on Oct. 1, 2004, after years of frustrated efforts trying to get a neglectful U.S. government to simply enforce existing immigration laws. Called “the world’s largest neighborhood watch”, their volunteer members aid efforts of the US Border Patrol by watching for illegal activity along the US-Mexican border.

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Exit Poll Shows Haslam, Hall, Lynn and Yarbro Set to Win Primary

Press Release from David Hall for Congress
August 2, 2010

Nashville, TN: After the 2008 Presidential elections, many experts predicted a truly unique 2010 election cycle. Evidence is mounting for these predictions to come true here in Davidson County politics. Present in the Republican Gubernatorial Primary is endless drama with money pouring in, not to mention the Republican support of Jeff Yarbro, a truly progressive challenger to Doug Henry, justified by traditional Republicans who claim that he is unable to win against their Republican nominee. Then of course you have the Juvenile Court Clerk hopeful, David Smith, who started his campaign a solid 30 months before Election Day, but the Republicans’ Eric Crafton is forging a close battle to the finish. Finally you have the Republican 5th Congressional District Primary drawing national support from Sarah Palin’s endorsement of CeCe Heil, followed by a vaguely explained endorsement from local Democrat State Rep Ben West Jr that has Democrats outraged and Republicans confused. Below is list of poll results released by David Hall, a Candidate for Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, stratified by AHC Group, a local media consulting firm.

Republican Primary Races

333 Total Registered Voters, Who’ve Already Voted In The Republican Primary

Gubernatorial Primary

Bill Haslam - 50.15%

Ron Ramsey - 29.9%

Zach Wamp – 19.95%

A surprising fact discovered - Voter exit data shows that 1/6 of all 2010 Republican Primary Voters have voted strictly Democrat in past primaries. When questioned the most common reason given is that the Democratic Primary doesn’t offer enough competition.

5th Congressional Primary

David Hall - 29%

Jeff Hartline - 23%

CeCe Heil - 23%

Bob Schwartz - 5%

Vijay Kumar - 3%

Patrick Miranda - 3%

Lonnie Spivak - 3%

Other - 11%

Voter exit polling shows that David’s $200,000 in voter contact has put his campaign a full 6% above his closest competitors.
Democratic Primary Races

126 Total Registered Voters, Who’ve Already Voted In The Democratic Primary

5th Congressional Primary

Jim Cooper - 87%

Eric Pearson -7%
\Eric Schecter - 6%

Nothing too surprising here, Jim Cooper, the Democratic incumbent is favored to win by a landslide.

State Senate District 21

Doug Henry - 36%

Jeff Yarbro - 64%

A rather difficult race to understand but the anti-incumbent fever seems to be affecting long time Senator Doug Henry as the new blood candidate, Jeff Yarbro, is beginning to break-away.

Davidson County General Election

294 Total Registered Voters, Who’ve Already Voted In The County General

Juvenile Court Clerk

Eric Crafton - 49.65%

David Smith – 50.35%

The fact that Eric Crafton is a Republican doesn’t seem to be helping him as 1/6 of the Republican vote is made up of previously Democratic voters who tend to vote accordingly in the county general. However, this race is clearly too close to call.

Criminal Court Clerk

David Torrence - 72%

David Baxter - 28%
Criminal Court Clerk David Torrence’s positive name recognition should be enough to carry him through the county general quite comfortably.

Davidson County has been a Democratic strong hold for decades, 2010 however provides fertile ground for grass-roots Republican victories.

Wilson County Republican Primary

17th State Senate Primary

Mae Beavers- 37%

Gordon Borck- 12%

Susan Lynn - 51%

Another heated contest shows Lynn with a strong lead.
Keaton Myers - Spokesperson
David Hall for Congress

Comment:

The highlighting in the above press release is mine.

I am taking this press release with a big grain of salt. A search for "AHC Group" reveals a major consulting firm headquartered in Saratoga Springs, New York. In Nashville there is the American Harmonica Club and an AHC records which is a music label, and American Health Consultants. The only AHC that could be a local media consulting firm was The AHC Group which has a very sparse web page.

The AHC Group is described as "a premier outbound data collection firm providing a full range of quality services through its modern facilities located in the heart of Nashville, TN. The AHC Group combines dynamic, experienced and professional staff with advanced data management and information technologies. This means that The AHC Group can provide clients with a strategic edge by setting industry standards in unrivaled service and customized market research data collection."

The address is not give, no list of client, and no other information. Is this the AHC referred to in the press release above?

My Predictions for the 5th.
I am going to go way out on a limb and give you my gut-feeling, unscientific prediction for the fifth:
Cece Heil 34%
Jeff Hatline 32%
Bob Schwartz 12%
David hall 9%
Lonnie Spivak 6%
The remaining five split the other 7 percent.

If David Hall wins this race and gets 29% of the vote I will be very surprised. If he is the nominee, I will work to help him get elected, but I am just not believing it.

No one should be influenced by my prediction. It is just a WAG. However, I will bet someone lunch that my predictions are closer than those listed in the David Hall press release.

What do you think?

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Congressman Jim Cooper is Vulnerable to Defeat

The Jeff Hartline for Congress campaign today released the results of a poll showing that, contrary to conventional wisdom, incumbent Congressman Jim Cooper is highly vulnerable to defeat this election cycle. The accompanying press release from Hartline for Congress makes the augment that Jeff Hartline is the only Republican candidate able to raise the funds to mount a serious general election campaign.

Regardless of which candidate you support, this memo is good news. We can beat Jim Cooper!

I have run into naysayers who say that we are wasting our time and that Cooper is unbeatable. A former member of the Davidson County Republican Party Executive Committee recently made this augment in response to a proposal posted on the 9-12 Project Nashville list serv. The proposal was to purchase anti Jim Cooper bill boards at prominent locations in Nashville and this former DCRP member discouraged this saying, "Jim Cooper is not beatable at this time." He went on to say, " this money is still better spent against a vulnerable liberal/Democrat or for an open seat in a swing district." And, "please don't waste your money on things that are not going to be fruitful and produce results. That would be a tragedy." This naysayer listed his degree in marketing to add weight to his advice.

Wilson Research Strategies is the firm that conducted the poll showing Jim Cooper is venerable. WSR is a reputable public relations firm and has done work for over 100 of the Fortune 500 and been involved in work for over 100 current and former members of Congress. Chris Wilson, the CEO, has an extensive background in campaign strategy, political media, and message development. He has an extensive background in polling and consulting prior to starting his own firm. The analysis from WRS is not just wishful thinking.

I am not certain that we can beat Jim Cooper. In politics one can never be certain but I am convinced that Cooper is vulnerable. I think that our candidate must present an alternative to the liberalism of Jim Cooper without coming off as extreme and our candidate needs to come out of the primary without having been bloodied excessively in the process and Republicans must open their wallet and fund our candidate. With the right message and money, I think we can beat Jim Cooper.

Below is the Wilson Research Strategies memo. The highlighting is mine.

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: WILSON RESEARCH STRATEGIES
SUBJECT: STATE OF RACE IN TENNESSEE’S 5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
DATE: APRIL 26, 2010

This memo summarizes key findings from a poll of 300 likely general election voters in Tennessee’s Fifth Congressional District conducted March 22-23, 2010.

Key Findings

 Voters in the 5th District are actively seeking an alternative to Jim Cooper.
o Only 23% of voters are willing to re-elect Jim Cooper regardless of who runs against him.

 WRS has found that incumbents who fail to achieve 30% on this measure tend to lose on Election Day.
o More voters (25%) would vote to replace Cooper regardless of who his opponent was than are willing to commit to re-electing him.

 Cooper can’t even manage a majority of the vote against a virtually-unknown
Republican.
o Only 48% of voters say they would vote for Jim Cooper against a Republican candidate with almost no name identification.

 With nothing to inform their decision other than their feelings about Cooper, less than half of voters are willing to support him.
o The effectively “generic” Republican draws 33% of the vote—as sign of how pro-Republican this year may be and a further danger sign for Cooper.

 The more voters learn about Jim Cooper, the less they like him.
o After voters hear about Cooper’s healthcare vote, his vote for the Obama spending bill, and his cap-and trade vote only 38% would vote for him.
o In particular, voters cited Cooper’s vote for healthcare (38%) and his record of voting with Washington liberals in spite of his claims of being a “blue dog” (24%) as the source of their hesitation to re-elect Cooper.

 Cooper’s hypocrisy in saying he is a “blue dog” at home and voting like a Washington liberal in Congress is a powerful and damning narrative once voters hear it. A campaign with the resources to push that message has a high probability of success.


Conclusions
Jim Cooper is that most common of species this year—an endangered Democrat. Cooper’s many liberal votes are enough to submarine his “blue dog” image and give a Republican an opening to capture the 5th District.

If Jeff Hartline can get his message out to Tennessee voters and rebut the desperate attacks that both Cooper and the Washington Democratic establishment are sure to launch against him, he has a clear path to victory in November.

Methodology
Wilson Research Strategies conducted a research study of likely general election voters in Tennessee’s Fifth Congressional District. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview March 22-23, 2010. The study has a sample size of n=300 likely general election voters. The margin of error is equal to ±5.7% in 95 out of 100 cases. The sample was stratified to represent the district electorate based on race, age, gender, partisan identification, and geographic distribution.

About Wilson Research Strategies
Since 1998, WRS has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from Mayor and City Council to Governor and U.S. Senate in 47 states and several foreign countries. In 2007-2008 alone, WRS conducted polling in 252 races for campaigns, caucuses and independent expenditures efforts.

In addition to our political and policy research, WRS provides donor research to Christian and other not-for-profits and alumni research to colleges and universities. More than 200 Christian and other not-for-profit organizations around the country and dozens of large and small colleges and universities have relied on WRS’s data and analysis.

WRS’s corporate research arm has provided market research to more than 100 of the Fortune 500 and to hundreds of small and medium businesses nationwide.

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The City Paper analyses the 5th Congressional race.

The City Paper analyses the congressional races in Tennessee and in an nutshell, here is what they say about the 5th:
Cece Heil is the "biggest splash of the season" and was helped by the Sarah Palin endorsement but that endorsement will hurt her in the general election if she is the nominee.
Jeff Hartline is still favored but has been hurt by the controversy of paying himself a salary and some other things.
Bob Schwartz is the most effective public speakers but lacks the resource to compete.
No other candidates are mentioned.

I think that is an accurate assessment.

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Another update: 2nd Quarter Financial Reports: Cece Heil underwhelms

Update: Lonnie Spivak's and Patrick Miranda's reports are posted. Why has Vijay Kumar not filed a report?

Second quarter Campaign Financial reports for the period ending June 30 have been filed and Cece Heil raised less money than expected.

I kept hearing that she was going like gang busters and had some important people with deep pockets lining up behind her. Not that $58,000 is an insignificant amount of money, but I expected more. She does have billboards and TV advertising and mailings. She probably has enough money to get the job done and get her message out but reality did not line up with the hype. Not that the hype was generated from her camp, but there was a certain buzz that she was raising a lot of money. Maybe it was just me, but I expected her to rival Hartline in campaign contributions.

Below are how the candidates stack up:

• Brendan Finucane has receipts of $75,325. He is no longer a candidate and his name is not on the ballot.
  
  
• David Hall reports receipts of $275, 968. He reports only $200 in individual contributions and list candidates contributions of $72,786 and "other contributions" of $202,983.

• Jeff Hartline shows receipts of $267,648. All of it was individual contributions except for about $4000.
  
  
• Cece Heil reports receipts of $58,054, all individual contributions.
  
  
• Bob Schwartz reports receipts of $10,710, all individual contributions.

• Lonnie Spivak reports $6581.

• Patrick Miranda reports $12,620
  

Tracy Tarum reported $380. Other candidates have either not filed a second quarter report, or perhaps it is not yet posted on the Federal Election Commission website.

Jarod Scott reported $17,791 in the first quarter and does show a second quarter filing.
Jarod Scott: What happened?

Vijay has several large billboard around town and those cannot come cheap.
Vijay Kumar: Where is your report?

For comparison sake, Democrat incumbent Jim Cooper reports receipts of $618,531, of which $382,738 was individual contributions and $231,555 was PAC contributions.

I am disappointed that our candidates are not better funded. Are our rich Republican still supporting Jim Cooper or are they waiting until there is a primary winner to open up?

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Meet Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey at Green Hills "Pastry and Politics"

Rise & Shine

Join us for the Green Hills"Pastry n Politics"
Saturday, July 24, 2010

Nero's Grill - Green Hills

Continental Buffet 8:30 am ($10 cash, no credit cards)

Meeting begins at 9 am (sharp)

Guest Speakers

Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey

Candidate for Governor

5th Congressional District Candidates

Jeff Hartline, Bob Schwartz and Lonnie Spivak

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Jeff Hartline explains the salary controversy. I'm satisfied.

Given the controversy over the salary that Jeff Hatline is paying himself to run for Congress I contacted the Hartline campaign and asked for an explanation. I asked, if the salary Jeff is paying himself is not $105,000 annually, how much is it? And, I asked for a justification of Jeff paying himself a salary.

Below is the response I received from David Shepard, Jeff's campaign manager. Please read this response carefully, if you want an understanding of the issue. The highlighting in the following letter is mine, otherwise this is the response as I received it unedited.

As far as I am concerned I am satisfied. As I stated in a previous post, if Jeff's contributors are not concerned that he is paying himself a salary why should I be concerned. Unless someone can prove that the facts as presented have been misrepresented then I am accepting this correspondence at face value. As far as I am concerned this is much to do about nothing.

Paying himself at the rate of $65,000 a year seems reasonable if that was what he was earning prior to running for office. If one must continue working their day job while running for office, one could not run an effective campaign and incumbents would be harder to dislodge. Running for office is a full-time job. If one could not pay themselves a salary from campaign funds while running for office then only the very wealthy could afford to run.

Dear Rod:

To answer your questions, a candidate is allowed by law to receive a salary amount from the campaign that is figured pro-rata based on his/her salary from the previous year. In Jeff's case, this is $65,000. He was an official candidate under the rules as of January 1 of this year and has been campaigning full time since then, having taken a leave of absence from his job. He has received a total of $27,083.35 gross (before taxes) for the first six months of this year. (The second quarter salary numbers reported for Jeff are net after taxes.)

As long as he remains a candidate, he will be paid at that rate, consistent with the law, and he will not make any more than he made last year for the same period of time. The campaign made the payments to Jeff after April 1 to conform with FEC rules, which is why there are no salary payments reported in the first quarter. The Commission wants to make sure candidates actually get into a race and aren't just trying to raise money, put it in their pockets and drop out. Jeff is obviously a serious candidate and is in the race to win.

I understand the law, which goes back to 2003, is relatively new, but it has been used by other candidates that have won and gone on to Congress. Jeff wanted to meet as many people as possible and explain why he thinks he is the best person to represent them in Congress. He committed to do that full time, and he has worked tirelessly. Not everyone can self-fund a campaign or take a year off from work. This law makes it possible for candidates like Jeff to make a serious run for Congress, just like the millionaires and incumbents.

Some people may honestly believe that only independently wealthy folks should be in Congress. Many of those criticizing Jeff about this, I suspect, simply see this as an opportunity to try to tear down another candidate. Others may be sincerely unaware of the law and its provisions and have not taken the time to do their homework or consider the wisdom of it before opining about Jeff's decision to play by the rules and go that route. Regardless, the campaign, with the overwhelming support from our contributors and supporters, will continue to go forward with Jeff working full time to make sure the voters hear his case. Hopefully, the issues he is discussing with voters – spending control and debt reduction, repealing and replacing Obamacare, energy independence, etc. – will be the focus going forward.

One other side note: Jeff never considered any other funding option for his living expenses during this time than what the FEC provides because it establishes the most accountable, transparent and public way to handle the issue of personal income during an election for a challenger like Jeff. It has been suggested by some since this has become an issue, that we should have done "something else that would not have to be reported". Really? Now, what does that imply exactly? Rod, I think you know what that implies. However, Jeff set out to run a campaign that is completely above-board.

It is hard to understand why following FEC regulations about personal income during an election campaign "smells bad" to some, and yet, creative funding options that are not reported, somehow smell better. It is this sort of thinking that has gotten us the kind of representation we have in Congress today. And it is this kind of thinking that Jeff's campaign is challenging.

Thank you for your interest in the truth. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact me.

Sincere regards,

David R. Shepherd

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Steve Gill Interviews Jeff Hartline

In this interview Steve Gill is pretty hard on Jeff Hartline. He describs Jeff taking a salary from his campaign as "slimy." Jeff tries to explain that the payment is for a period of time greater than just the reporting period and so is considerable less than $8000 a month. Unfortunately for Jeff, I don't think he makes his point very well. And, Steve Gill pretends he doesn't understand.

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Straw poll and Pop quiz results from the Apollo School 5th District debate

Congratulation Lonnie Spivak.

The results are in for the straw poll and the pop quiz from last Thursday's Apollo School 5th District candidates debate.

STRAW POLL RESULTS:

CeCe Heil 31 – 32.9%
Jeff Hartline 24 – 25.5%
Lonnie Spivak 17 – 18.1%
Bob Schwartz 12 – 12.8%

Pop quiz on the enumerated powers listed in the constitution:

Lonnie Spivak – 14 right / 0 wrong
Bob Ries – 7 right / 2 wrong
Jeff Hartline – 6 right / 0 wrong
Bob Schwartz – 5 right / 2 wrong
Tracy Tarum – 5 right / 0 wrong
CeCe Heil – 2 right / 1 wrong
Patrick Miranda – 2 right / 2 wrong

I am surprised that in the straw poll that Bob Schwartz did not score higher. I expected that either Jeff or Cece would be number one, but I thought Bob might come in at number two or a close number three. Congratulations to Lonnie Spivak for taking the third slot.

I am really surprised that Cece did not do better in the pop quiz. Cece always speaks with such authority and confidence about the constitution. She is a lawyer and she has described herself as a 'constitutional scholar' . As I stated in my original post on this debate, I was embarrassed by my own poor performance. I was glad I was not on that stage; however, I scored a 4 which is not too bad. I beat a constitutional scholar!

Actually, I am also surprised at Jeff Hartline. He carries a copy of the constitution with him and also speaks with authority. We all need to bone up on the constitution if we are going to claim we love it so much. I am impressed by Lonnie Spivak. He got twice as many right answers as his closest competitor. Congratulation Lonnie Spivak for knowing the Constitution.

For a complete run down of the debate results and insight from the debate moderator and organizer visit Blue Collar Muse.

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Jeff Hartline and Bob Schwartz to debate July 17th

Jeff Hartline

Two of whom many consider to be among the top three candidates for the Republican nomination for the 5th congressional seat will be going toe-to-toe in a one-on-one debate this Saturday. Jeff Hartline will be debating Bob Schwartz.

This debate should be interesting as the two candidates have differences on issues such as the future of Medicare, immigration and energy policy. In style and substance these candidates present a choice.

While you may have seen the candidates "debate" in a crowded field of ten, one-on-one there is a greater opportunity to evacuate the candidates. The debate will be moderated by Councilman Duane Dominy. Audience members will be given the opportunity to ask questions of the two candidates. Come and ask the hard questions.
Bob Schwartz

The debate is sponsored by the Priest Lake Republican Club. The meeting takes place at the Sprit of Life Church, 3646 Murfreesboro Pike. Breakfast sandwiches and coffee will be available for purchase at a modest price. The group will meet Saturday July 17th at 8:30 AM for coffee and eating and socializing and the program will start at 9AM and the program will conclude at 10:15AM.

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The Apollo School Republican 5th Congressional District Debate

Last night, seven of the 10 active candidates for the Republican nomination for the 5th Congressional District engaged in a debate at Apollo Middle School in Antioch. The debate was co-sponsored by Conservatives on the Move, The Tennessee ConserVOLiance, Tennessee Tax Revolt, the 9-12 Project Tennessee, the National Fiscal Conservative PAC, and the Davidson County Republican Party. Ken Marrero who blogs at Blue Collar Muse and is a conservative leader in Tennessee was the debate moderator. About 175 people attended the event.

Patrick Miranda and Tracy Tarum who had both missed the Davidson County Picnic were participants in this debate. Absent without an explanation was David Hall, who is running a campaign that must have as its campaign strategy avoiding places where active Republicans will hear your message. Hall missed this event and he also missed the picnic on Saturday. Also absent were Jarod Scott and Vijay Kumar.

The program moderator announced that Vijay had been in an auto accident and was in recovery and could not attend. Following my blog post on Saturday that mentioned Vijay’s absence from the July 10th DCRP picnic, Vijay called me and explained the same thing to me as his reason for missing that event. He said he had been rear-ended in an auto accident about two weeks before and had been in traction and would be out of commission for maybe two more weeks. Surprisingly, I saw Vijay at a meeting Monday night July 12 where there was presentation by a group called Americans for Peace & Tolerance. The meeting concerned the threat of radical Islam and was at the Hampton Inn on Crestmore Dr. I arrived late and left as soon as the event was over, and did not get a chance to speak to Vijay at that meeting. I am going to give Vijay the benefit of the doubt and assume he was too ill to attend the DCRP picnic, but recovered enough to attend the Monday event, but then had a relapse and was too ill to participate in the debate. I wish him a speedy recovery.

The debate was fast paced and enjoyable. A twist to this debate was that each candidate had a certain number of red flags they could throw to have the right of rebuttal of another speaker. Another twist was a Jeopardy-inspired use of white boards where all candidates answered the same question, writing their answer on the board and then revealing the answers at the same time. Ken did a great job moderating the debate.

Despite the enjoyable format and fast pace of the debate, it is still difficult to know who said what when seven people are debating. I recorded the event and took good notes, and may go back and quote some of the debate highlights. From memory however, here are debate highlights and observations.

Bob Ries spoke very loud into the microphone and was deafening. Bob also has a hearing impairment that kept him from adequately hearing the other contestants or the moderator.

Cece Heil and others, said they did not think it was an appropriate government function for FEMA to provide assistance during the recent Nashville flood. Bob Schwartz thought that was appropriate citing the Welfare clause of the constitution. Cece said Bob did not understand the welfare clause.

Bob Schwartz hammered Jeff Hartline on Jeff’s advocacy of an energy tax. Jeff explained that he was not advocating any additional amount of tax but that any additional tax revenue realized from any new additional sources of energy production be taxed at the same rate as current energy production and the revenue be used to reduce the deficit.

Lonnie Spivac advocated a procedural rule change in how congress conducts its business so that earmarks could not be tacked on to unrelated legislation. He credited Bob Ries for also advancing this idea.

Cece Heil said she opposed the Patriot Act but did support the use of harsh interrogation techniques.

Tracy Tarum was selected as the favorite of the candidates when asked who they would like to see win if they did not win the nomination.

If this debate was videocast and I find the link, I will update and post it. Also, there was an audience poll of which I anticipate learning the results. One feature of the debate was a pop quiz where the candidates were asked to list as many of the 18 enumerated powers of the federal government as they could. I admit I did not do well in trying to answer that question. I am curious how the candidates did. The answers are to be posted on the website Blue Collar Muse. When that is posted I will post the link.

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Hartline welcomes Huckabee's Endorsement

July 13, 2010, Hartline for Congress

NASHVILLE – Congressional candidate Jeff Hartline today welcomed his endorsement by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as the latest big milestone in Hartline's campaign to defeat incumbent Congressman Jim Cooper in the November election.

“It is a distinct honor to be recognized by one of the nation’s leading Conservatives.,” Hartline said. “Governor Huckabee not only has distinguished himself as an able executive and proponent of Constitutional principles, but he has walked his talk throughout his life in ministry and public service. His confidence inspires us to greater service to our own district. I believe he is a man to be imitated by those in public service and I will certainly work toward that goal.”

Huckabee, a popular pick in the 2008 presidential primary in Tennessee, currently hosts the Huckabee show on Fox News, and is considered a top-tier candidate if he decides to run for president again in 2012. The endorsement was announced by Huck PAC, Huckabee's political action committee, which has endorsed a string of conservative congressional candidates across the country.

In his endorsement, which was announced by his political action committee, Huck PAC, Huckabee praised Hartline's commitment to conservative, constitutional government. Huckabee called Hartline “a new voice for the people of the 5th district … , a voice that stands up for fiscal responsibility and smaller government with no deficit spending, for entrepreneurial job creation and a sound economy, for human life and traditional marriage, for secure borders, and for a renaissance of freedom by a return to and respect for constitutional limits on government.”

Huck PAC is committed to helping Republicans regain control of the House and Senate, regain a majority of governorships and supporting conservative principles around the country. Huck PAC supports Republican candidates who are passionate advocates for tax reform, a strong national defense, real border security, life, the family, less government, and individual liberty. Huck PAC's Team Huck is a grassroots volunteer organization that helps Huck PAC find, endorse, and elect Republican candidates who share those principles.

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