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| Robert Swope |
By Councilman Robert Swope - The
exploding growth and increasing population density in cities across
America has created a problem unlike anything in the previous annuls of
recorded history: modern mass transit.
I write to you with
the hope that an alternative solution might be considered into the
conversation to address this issue in middle Tennessee.
Defining the Problem
Solutions
proposed over the past 150 years are now as inadequate as our
definition of the problem is outdated. Webster defines mass as “to form
or collect into a large group,” and transit as “the conveyance of
persons from one place to another.” This definition of mass transit, as
simply gathering persons together in one location and moving them (en
masse) to another locale, describes how transit has evolved in the last
century from moving a handful of people (horse & buggies, taxies,
street cars and trollies) to moving many people (trains, trams, subways,
buses and monorails). This mass transit concept, however, poorly
expresses the capabilities of our modern age, in which technology has
reshaped our lives in ways even our parents could not have imagined.
Mass transit continues to use outdated technology and infrastructure,
suffers from lack of resources and planning, and has created gridlock in
most of our cities.
Atlanta is a prime example. City leaders
realized too late in 1990 that the city needed light rail and expanded
bus service to alleviate the gridlock of its exploding population. It
took another 15 years to outline the solution, pass legislation to raise
the capital funding, complete the financing structure, and finally,
begin construction. In that time, Atlanta more than doubled in size and
population, rendering the original mass transit plans not nearly capable
of handling the city’s needs. And Atlanta now finds itself in the same
situation, quite possibly worse, than it found itself in 1990.
If
Nashville were to plan, fund and construct a light rail system in the
Middle Tennessee region, our city’s debt would increase by 2 to 3
billion dollars or more. A mass transit system that extends north,
south, east and west from the city’s core for perhaps 40 miles would
deposit the masses in the city’s center and thereby create the need for
an additional inner city system (monorail) which would add an additional
billion or so dollars to the investment. Anyone living between the
compass points would still have to commute to the train station via car,
bike or foot.
Traditional parking lots at each station would
need to be constructed, thereby reducing available land for use as
public space or residential/commercial development. Additionally, for
every mile of light rail track constructed, land would need to be
purchased and incorporated into the new system, eliminating those lands
from being part of any walk, hike, bike space, green space, or new
opportunities for affordable housing space.
Cost aside, the
system will be completely outdated from the moment it begins operation,
following the 10-15 years or more such an undertaking would require. By
the time studies are done, legislation is passed, funding is secured,
land is purchased and a light rail system is built, Nashville will have
doubled in size and population and our communities will have lost
thousands of useful acres of land to an outdated mass transit solution.
The
mass transit systems already utilized in high density urban cities
across America will likely remain an efficient means of transit in the
midterm future. But in regions like Nashville; Austin, TX; Charlotte,
NC; and the Tampa Bay, FL area, the massive undertaking of light rail or
subway/monorail construction is either too cost prohibitive or
geographically impossible. And putting more buses on the grid will only
cause further gridlock.
Identifying a Solution
First, I
propose a paradigm shift in our terminology from mass transit to human
transit—a minor change in terminology with major implications.
Think in
terms of moving a human, not a mass of humans. I propose that we,
collectively and individually, begin to re-think what mass transit
really means.
Second, I propose
leveraging efficient transit
technology, namely the autonomous vehicle (AV) to 1) realize huge
governmental cost savings through public-private partnerships, 2)
increase traffic efficiency, and 3) create freedom of movement not
dependent upon any socioeconomic status.
Third, I propose
proactive planning, rather than reactive devising, which is generally
the delayed response of city planners who implement a mass transit
option that is already obsolete.
I respectfully submit to you
that in 2015 Nashville, the “IT” city in America, faces the same
situation as Atlanta faced in 1990. We expect our geographical size and
population density to double within the next 10 to 15 years. If we
instigate traditional outdated mass transit options such as light rail,
dedicated bus lanes, or monorail, by the time Metro Council requests the
requisite studies done, passes appropriate legislation, acquires the
financing/bond structure, purchases the land and necessary right of
ways, and actually constructs the transit option, we will have spent
billions of taxpayer dollars for a mass transit solution that will
already be outdated by the time anyone could actually use it.
To
avoid this quandary, we must think not towards the future, but in the
future. We must implement strategies that change things now, not in 10
years. We must think in terms of shared human transit, in lieu of mass
congestion-causing transit. We must begin to procure and embrace
technologies that even as little as 10 years ago would have been scoffed
at as science fiction. Much like our current smart phones. As little as
20 years ago, a cell phone barely fit into a briefcase, and now you
wear it on your wrist. It talks to you, instructs you how to get to your
destination, monitors your heart rate, and suggests your evening dining
experience on demand.
I propose that AV technology, while
perhaps not currently as advanced as our smart phones, is a mere 2 to 5
years away from being on your wrist, and a viable solution to dealing
with the age-old problems of mass transit. Moving many humans in and
along one fixed route can shift, through technology innovations, towards
moving one, from door to door, effectively, efficiently and with equal
social access.
The speed at which Autonomous Vehicles have
developed is quite remarkable. According to Jeff Miller, an associate
professor at the University of Southern California who works on
autonomous driving, “The speed at which the technology has reached this
point is stunning. Today, most of the world’s major automakers are
working on autonomous technology, with Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, and Volvo
leading the pack. Google may be more advanced than anyone: The tech
giant says its self-driving cars are so far along, they can recognize
and respond to hand signals from a cop directing traffic.”
Delphi,
a 100 year old automotive supplier company, just drove (rode in) its
new autonomously equipped Audi, an incredible 3,400 miles from San
Francisco to New York City. The vehicle did 99% of the driving
completely on its own. Google recently stated that it has logged over 2
million miles in the testing and development of its own AVs. In a press
release this past Friday, auto giant Toyota announced it was investing 1
billion dollars in AV technology in the next five years.
These
achievements and commitments to the future are happening now, not 20
years from now.
Likewise, our commitment to Nashville’s human
transit future must be implemented now, beginning with understanding the
technical elements, safety concerns, political and legislative
roadblocks, economic impacts and environmental issues that the paradigm
shift from mass transit to human transit encompasses.
Understanding the Technology
A
Level 5 Autonomous Vehicle (one that will drive itself with no outside
intervention), is technically closer to a computer on wheels than a
traditional car with Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation and
automated car-parking capabilities. Today’s companies are essentially
developing ultra-safe “pods” loaded with technologies originally
designed for military fighter jet use. No gauges, no steering wheel, no
console, no shifter, no accelerator or brake pedals, and, perhaps, no
windshield or side glass.
Software giants and global
automotive manufacturers have incorporated RADAR (which uses sound
waves), LIDAR (which uses light waves or lasers), 3D cameras, ultrasonic
sensors and very sophisticated GPS to accurately determine not only
where the vehicle is at any given nanosecond, but far more importantly,
to “see” everything around it at all times. In some cases, current AVs
contain 9 or more of these systems, all working in tandem, providing far
more information than a human driver could ever expect to interpret and
at far greater speeds (10 times per second).
The real
advantage behind AVs transitioning mass transit into human transit is
not the technology associated with any single AV on the road, but rather
Vehicle-to-Vehicle communication among thousands of vehicles. Collision
Avoidance Software (CAS), which is available in quite a few traditional
vehicles today, is far more advanced in AVs. Most CAS today can
recognize any number of potential safety issues (bridges, tunnels,
railroad crossings, a child running into street) and calculate complex
decisions that until now were thought to only be achieved with the human
brain. Combined with Vehicle-To-Vehicle communication applications, AVs
throughout a city can actually talk to one another, share
real-time traffic information, congestion data, and flow patterns much
like a hive of bees interacts. What one knows, all know. In this manner,
a fleet of AVs can navigate a city or suburb far more efficiently than a
human driver receiving traffic tips from the radio or a smartphone app.
With the addition of street mapping, which Goggle is currently
implementing in most American cities, this same fleet of AVs can
interpret the quickest, most efficient route between any two points at
any time. If traffic light synchronization were incorporated into the
information stream shared with AVs, or (perhaps eventually) allow AVs to
automatically control certain intersection lighting, AV efficiency
increases even more.
Enhancing Public Safety
One of
the largest concerns of AVs, both perceptually and practically, is
safety, which is hugely alleviated in removing steering wheels, floor
pedals, consoles, glass and the like from AVs. These innovations, along
with carbon fiber and other high tech composites, create a far safer
transit environment. Lighter, stronger, and far safer than steel or
aluminum, these “pods” surround a passenger in a much more protective
enclosure than a typical automobile and create a more protective
environment outside the enclosure for pedestrians.
Aside from
technology innovations that increase safety standards, the real safety
feature of AVs is the removal of the human driver, who is susceptible to
fatigue, boredom, stress, distraction, and impairment behind the wheel.
Issues that have no effect on an autonomous vehicle. According to the
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, over 32,000 traffic
fatalities occur every year in America, with 1.2 million deaths
worldwide. It is estimated that 90% of those fatalities are due to human
error. While replacing every vehicle with AVs will not necessarily save
28,800 lives in the US each year, a sophisticated AV system will
drastically decrease annual vehicle fatalities.
The amount of
data a typical human driver experiences in a daily commute to and from
work each day is staggering. With the advanced AI software currently in
development, an AV will be able to process in real time even more data
input than the human brain is capable of processing, and do so without
the distractions of spilled coffee, ringing cell phones, persons in the
backseat and the like, further reducing countless gridlock-inducing
non-life-threatening accidents and saving considerable time in each of
our average daily commutes.
Maximizing our Resource Usage
Instead
of waking each morning, walking/biking/driving to the train/bus stop,
boarding this traditional means of mass transit, arriving at a common
departure point and walking to our workplace, we can simply engage an
app on our smartphone and minutes later be picked up at our front door.
During our commute, we can read the morning paper, talk on the phone,
watch TV, or simply nap. Upon arrival, we can enjoy curbside delivery,
forgoing the search for parking while the AV goes on to pick up its next
on-call customer.
The inherently shared nature of AVs means
that they do not sit in a parking lot or garage 90% of the time. Rather,
they are utilized 90% of each and every day by multiple citizens. This
revolutionizes the way in which all of us will commute and live. Florida
State Senator Jeff Brandes, in discussing the GreenLight Pinellas
project in St. Petersburg-Tampa Bay area, puts it this way: “Technology
is going to transform mass transit in a way that very few people can
see. AVs will reduce congestion, lower parking demands, increase rider
safety by reducing wait times, and in the case of public systems,
provide universal access.” (
link)
In a
recent interview, retired long time New Jersey Transit planner Jerome Lutin put it simply: “The
transit industry needs to promote shared-use autonomous cars as a
replacement for transit on many bus routes and for services to persons
with disabilities. ... If you can’t get 10 people on a bus, or 5 people
on a bus, then why bother running it? We’re wasting diesel fuel!”
While buses and AVs can exist in harmony, with buses handling the
transit needs of extremely high density corridors, AVs will win out over
other forms of public mass transit in multitude of other ways.
According to Paul Godsmark, contrary to the common perception that AV usage will
put more vehicles on the road, “A review of research shows that one
car-share vehicle can be seen to remove between nine and thirteen other
vehicles from the roads.” Countless studies shows that with if AVs were
to be utilized in a mass transit environment, they would be
functionally used 80- 90% of the time — far greater than a private
vehicle, utilized on average a mere 10% of the time.
With
everything being automated, an AV will never need rest, other than to
re-charge, will never need to find a parking space in a crowded urban
space, and will never simply sit in a garage not being utilized. This
shift in the inherent nature of transit changes the way in which all of
us will commute, and live in the future.
Preparing for the Political and Legislative Implications
With
vehicle automation, we are now,
as Executive Director of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford Sven Beiker, says, “at the point where
personal mobility and public transportation come together.” And it is
at this point in history that we must prepare for the ensuing political
and legislative implications. Removing human drivers from the human
transit equation will require new legislation, on the Federal, State and
local levels.
Industry Changes
As AVs are
predominantly electric, considerable pushback will occur from a host of
industries including petroleum, taxi unions, railroads, bus companies,
Uber/Lyft, ride sharing companies, auto retailers and manufacturers,
insurance companies, and a host of other auto industry and
transportation related groups. In the same manner that horse drawn
carriage makers were up in arms when the first cars were introduced in
the early 1900’s, so will an uprising begin as the AV system draws
closer to today’s reality rather than tomorrow’s fantasy.
Socioeconomic Changes
Another
political concern of existing mass transit systems is equality.
Robin Chase, co-founder of ZipCar recently posed this question: “Would you
prefer what we have today, where only poor people use most transit
systems, ... or would you rather the poor people use the exact same
thing that everyone else is using?”7 While this statement is rather
blunt, I agree with the socio- economic point she is making. AVs offer
the same benefit and opportunity to every human regardless of their
socioeconomic status. With the cost of AV transit being very close to
(or less than) current mass transit options, existing users of MTA will
most likely utilize the same autonomous services as the middle and upper
classes, thereby promoting equality in a manner never before conceived.
What is good for one, will be good for many.
Investment Changes
As
opposed to the massive financial and time investments of completing a
traditional mass transit system, implementing an Autonomous Vehicle
system simply requires our existing infrastructure to continue
operating. No additional land purchases. No tracks laid. No parking lots
paved. No increased fuel emissions. No billion dollar
bond-funded indebtedness or taxpayer funding. AVs operate on the same
roads we currently utilize, drive their occupants according to the same
traffic regulations that we currently follow, and, because they are
lighter than a traditional vehicle, cause far less damage to our current
roadway infrastructure.
Responding Responsibly
The
mounting evidence demonstrates that AVs are far more economical,
efficient, and environmentally friendly than any traditional mass
transit solution. The evidence demands that we, as fiscally responsible
representatives of the constituents we serve, take a serious look into
leveraging technological innovation to increase our city’s financial
gains, improve its quality of life, and enhance its citizens’ disposable
income.
To Increase Financial Gains
Though several
billion dollars would need to be raised and spent on a mass transit
system before the first rider steps on board, with an AV human transit
system, we can literally have several thousand AVs operating within a
100 mile radius around the city core for less than $50 million — or for
little to no cost to taxpayers if Nashville entertained a public-private
partnership. In a real- world Metro Budget example,
rather than
spending over $54 Million on our Metro Transit Authority in 2015 ($70
million in total expense less $16 million in charges and commissions),
Nashville could create a new revenue income stream from the utilization
of AVs through a negotiated fee structure with the private entity
operating such a system in cooperation with MTA. This is an opportunity
that taxpayers in Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Cheatham, Wilson and
other surrounding counties would likely more than welcome. Providing a
socioeconomically equal transit solution for their communities while
generating new revenues for their county and/or city at the same time,
all while increasing available land for affordable housing appears to be
a win-win-win scenario.
To Improve Quality of Life
Nashville
area’s taxpayers would also enjoy an additional
financial windfall and
increased quality of life from the raw land resources that an AV human
transit system would make available for new development and/or public
green space usage. Over one quarter of the land in every city in the US
is currently utilized for parking lots, acreage that could be sold for
residential and commercial development, repurposed into public space, or
utilized for affordable housing with an AV human transit system.
Further, AVs are capable of driving on narrower lanes as they “see” the
road much more effectively than human drivers. Where we have 2 lanes of
traffic currently, we could have three lanes with narrower AVs and more
efficient driving, further increasing the usefulness of our finite
supply of useable land globally.
To Enhance Nashvillians’ Disposable Income
Aside
from the financial and environmental gains in the repurposing of land
currently utilized for parking, the single largest savings to our
constituents is a huge reduction in labor. An average taxi rider pays
approximately 57% of the fare to the driver. Private ride sharing
companies like Uber or Lyft compensate their labor forces with up to
half of the fare. AVs have none of these expenses. This cost is directly
passed on to each and every user of the human transit solution, adding
disposable income to each and every family’s bottom line. While a
concern that drivers will be left looking for alternative means of
income will emerge, our communities, and these drivers, will be far
better off in the bigger picture that is our future.
I
believe that the time has come for a change. The elements of mass
transit that we, as a society, have been utilizing for decades are
outdated. Society has outgrown the technologies of history. The use of
Autonomous Vehicles in a Human Transit solution offers massive economic
and environmental advantages, but will require concessions on a number
of issues.
I call upon the legislators throughout our government, from
the Federal level down to Nashville’s Metro Council, of which I am a
proud member, to recognize that:
(1) change is inevitable, and
(2)
redefining our future in a fiscally responsible and environmentally
cognizant manner will have a far greater positive impact than
maintaining the current status quo.
We as legislatures must
be on the front end of this paradigm shift in the societal understanding
of transit, so that when that change is understood and accepted,
Nashville can take full advantage of the revolution that AV technology
promises. Let us refocus our collective minds on moving one,
independently and equally, rather than forcing the many to live and move
en masse.
I humbly request your consideration in
implementing AVs into the conversation when discussing mass transit
solutions in the Middle Tennessee region. I realize there are a
multitude of choices in this conversation, but ask that you consider
HUMAN TRANSIT within these proposed solutions carefully before
committing our city’s (and State’s) resources to what will be a defining
decision in Nashville’s history.
Robert Swope is one of the new council members elected in the most recent election and represents the fourth district in the Metro Council. I commend him for this thoughtful essay which he sent as a letter to all of his colleagues on the Council and other interested parties. We need more of this type of "thinking outside the box," rather than simply doing things the same old way we have always done them and simply throwing money at a problem. I hope the administration and his colleagues and planners involved in transit planning receive this with an open mind. The highlighting in the above essay is mine. Rod
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