Saturday, October 17, 2020

Civil Unrest advisory: East Nashville, Oct. 17th, all day.

Civil Unrest advisory: Please be mindful to avoid East Nashville today where there is BLM mural painting party. While promoted as peaceful event, any gathering of this nature has the potential to turn violent. If you must travel in that vicinity, it is advised that one be prepared for self defense. 

This advisory also extends to I-24 on the east side of town in the vicinity of Main St, between approximately Shelby Ave and Spring St. If the rhetoric at the BLM mural painting party incites the crowd, the insurgents may decide blocking interstate traffic would be a good target for taking out their frustration. 

The danger of civil unrest is heightened by a large number of women effected by Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) who are ending their separate march at the BLM mural painting party location. People with TDS are incapably of rational thinking and may be aggressive but more likely to be a threat to themselves by stepping into a lane of traffic as a means of protest. If you must be on the roadways and encounter people with TDS walking into the roadway, try to avoid hitting them. Remember they are blinded by hatred to President Trump and are incapably of rational thought.

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Women with TDS march and then join the BLM mural painting party

Power Together Tennessee Women's March kicks off in Cumberland Park

The Tennessean Hundreds of people, in Middle Tennessee took to the streets late Saturday morning for a Women's March. ... Power Together Tennessee, the area march host, said the message is “to send an unmistakable message of our fierce opposition to Trump and his agenda" including his effort to fill the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat.

The march is slated to end at the unveiling of Black Lives Matter mural on Woodland Street in East Nashville. ...

"I am marching because if we don’t demand change, our republic may not exist. I am marching because our democracy is on the line, said Yayne Abeba, Power Together Women’s March organizer.

.... the group wrote it would march in force "to send a clear message that we will not allow Trump and the GOP to endanger our lives any longer.

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Friday, October 16, 2020

Judge dismisses lawsuit aimed at stopping Nashville MLS stadium. State Fair to move to Wilson County

Judge dismisses lawsuit aimed at stopping Nashville MLS stadium construction

The Tennessean - ... Chancellor Ellen Hobbs Lyle dismissed the lawsuit from Save Our Fairgrounds on Tuesday with prejudice — meaning plaintiffs may not re-file the case. 

 "[T]he Court concludes that the Plaintiffs have not proven that the construction and operation of the Development on the Fairgrounds Nashville Property is ultra vires, a breach of fiduciary duty or violates the Metro Charter," Lyle wrote in her 64-page opinion. "The evidence showed that there is no intent or design of Metro or the Intervening Defendants to destroy or eliminate the Existing Uses."  ....

She dismissed the group's claim that the project would interfere with a fair,
ruling construction and operation of the stadium at the fairgrounds could co-exist and the stadium and the mixed-use building would actually help the event. 

However, the Tennessee State Fair and Exposition Commission unanimously approved Monday a recommendation to make the Wilson County Fair the new site for the Tennessee State Fair.

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Thursday, October 15, 2020

It is despicable actions like this that makes me question Trump's fitness to serve.

by Rod Williams - The above is a retweet by President Trump that alleges that Joe Biden and President Obama may have had Seal team 6 killed. They were the team that took out Osama Ben Laden.  Except, the author of the tweet doesn't believe Osama Ben Laden was killed and that President Obama had to have the Seal team killed to cover up the deception that he was killed.  This is sick stuff.  This come from an article in Forbes, and the shown tweet is a retweet by Trump from an account with a history of promoting the Q-Anon conspiracy theory. This is not the first time President Trump has peddled Q-Anon sick nonsense. 

It is crap like this that makes it hard to like Trump. He retweets crazy stuff from a nut-job group.  Why does he do it. There is not enough of them to worry about their vote. Anyway, where are they going to go? Maybe stay home and not vote? So, if he gets a few nuts to vote for him who might have otherwise stayed home, by posting the tweet, more sane people who were wavering will go the other way. Not only is this an unwise political calculation but it is just wrong. 

We should not be encouraging crazy people. This is off in the far fringe of we-faked-the-moon-landing, Elvis-Marilyn-and-JFK-are-not-really-dead-but-living-in-a-secret-resort-somewhere, 9-11-was-an-inside-job, big-foot and space aliens. They make Chemtrail people look perfectly normal. They make the John Birch Society look like history scholars. They are off the charts.  They believe that Hillary Clinton and a lot of other leading Democrats are part of a vast conspiracy composed of people who are pedophiles and cannibals.  Do I believe Hillary is a crook who engaged in pay-for-play and pedaled influence? Yes.  Do I believe the Clintons enriched themselves under the guise of helping poor Haitians? Yes. Do I believe Bill Clinton was a rapist and harasser of women and Hillary enabled and covered up for him? Yes. Do I believe Hillary is one of he leaders of a massive pedophile and cannibalism ring with tentacles throughout the Federal government? NO!

Does Trump really believe this or does he just see something and without thinking and say, "yea, that sounds believable," and hits tweet without knowing the source of what he is tweeting or who is behind the conspiracy he is tweeting? Is he a believer or just irresponsible? I don't know. One excuse offered by his supporters is that he just does this to antagonize the mainstream press and liberals, that he likes to watch their heads explode. They understand Trump, they say, and I don't. I am not buying that argument. 

From time to time I question Trump's fitness to serve. Does he have the judgement or the values to be president?  If he would not do crazy stuff like this, I could like him a whole lot better. I liked the Trump of the Mount Rushmore speech and the Republican convention, but not the Trump who is pedaling Q-Anon. 

I know the big picture is more important than this issue: standing up to China, peace in the middle-east, maintaining American energy independence, curtailing the unelected bureaucratic elites, saving the economic progress of minorities, American economic well being, preserving the second amendment, appointing jurist who believe the courts should not make policy, preserving the electoral college, securing our borders, stopping the insanity of the Green New Deal, stopping the defunding of police, stopping "Medicare for All," stopping packing the Supreme Court, and ending the Antifa/BLM insurgency.  Those are important. What is a few crazy tweets compare to the future of our country hanging in the balance? 

However, his support for Q-anon is hard to swallow. I guess a lot of my Republican friends are not bothered by this. If you are a Trumper, let me ask you why this does not bother you: (1) I am bothered by it, but I ignore it because I don't want to diminish his reelection chances by condemning it, (2) I see the game he is playing and he does this just to keep the establishment liberals head's reeling, (3) I believe the stuff he tweets and there really is a cabal of pedophiles and cannibals deeply entrenched in the 'deep state,' or (4) some other rationale. Why is this OK?

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How to Steal an Election: Mail-In Ballots


What’s the difference between absentee balloting and universal mail-in balloting? The latter might sound like a great idea, but is it really? Eric Eggers of the Government Accountability Institute answers this vitally important question.


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Wednesday, October 14, 2020

How Republicans deny people the right to vote.

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Early Voting Starts Today, Oct. 14th


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Liberty on the Rocks - Nashville, Thursday, October 15, 2020, 5:30 PM


Who: A group of people, numbering anywhere between 8 and 25, who love liberty and who range in age from 18 to 80, and who vary in occupation from students to laborers to attorney's and businessmen, who are generally labeled "right of center" and may call themselves, libertarian, tea party, Republican, conservative, constitutionalists, Objectivist, and an occasional anarcho-capitalist.

What: Liberty on the Rocks is a get-together that involves eating and drinking and talking and respectfully disagreeing and exchanging of ideas usually about some political topic (but not always political) which could be the upcoming election, or Mayor Cooper's handling of the response to Corona and the massive tax increase, other news of the day, or foreign policy, or the monetary system, or the roll of the family and gay marriage, or legalization of drugs or prostitution, or the welfare state, or education reform, or criminal justice and prison reform, or the death penalty, or immigration policy, or morality and values, or the current civil unrest, or just whatever topic one brings up. No prayer, no pledge, no speaker, no program. 

When: Thursday, October 15 from 5:30 or whenever people arrive which starts about 5:30  until everyone leaves which usually means people start leaving about 8:30, but sometime later but you can come as late or leave as early as you please.  

Where: Southside Kitchen and Pub, 2190 Nolensville PK, Nashville, TN.

Why: For the enjoyment of good conversation with like-minded people or at least mostly sensible people.

To RSVP or map follow this link.  If you fail to RSVP, just show up. No big deal. 

Time to get back to socialism- socializing. Since the onset of the nasty virus, attendance at these events has dropped. Don't let these monthly get togethers fade away. 

First Beer on me. If you are new to Liberty on the Rocks and will be attending this Thursday for the first time, or the first time in a long time, let me know and the first round is on me. Rod Williams

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Professor Brian Fitzpatrick guest speak of the Bastiat Society of Nashville, Wednesday, October 14th

AIER's Bastiat Society of Nashville invites you to join us tomorrow, October 14th, at 6:00pm for an in-person event with Professor Brian Fitzpatrick. The unexpected opportunity for President Trump to nominate a third judge - Amy Coney Barrett - to the Supreme Court brings to the forefront differing judicial interpretation approaches (e.g. originalism, textualism) and other key issues impacting the confirmation process, not the least of which is the impact of a nominee's religion. 

Professor Fitzpatrick, who has clerked for Associate Justice Antonin Scalia (a Justice who was known for strong opinions on these issues), will highlight the issues impacting the confirmation process that is currently underway. The Bastiat Society of Nashville's speaker series is co-sponsored by The Beacon Center of Tennessee & The Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) (affiliated with Middle Tennessee State University). This co-sponsorship does not necessarily constitute endorsement of the speakers' positions on the issues discussed. 

 Registration Required. Let us know if you're coming.

Register here

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Monday, October 12, 2020

Thousands attend "unpermitted" "Worship Protest" in Nashville on Sunday. Metro officials investigate and threaten punishment.

by Rod Williams - There was a massive "worship protest" in the park in front of the Metro Courthouse on Sunday.  Thousands attended. Sean Feucht, a guy I have never heard of until now, was the organizer of the event.  He is based out of California and apparently has a massive following in evangelical Christian circles. He has had similar events at cities across America. I am usually pretty attuned to what is happening in conservative, Republican, or libertarian circles in Nashville but did not know this event was planned.  I am not nearly as attuned to the Christian community as I am the right-of-center political community. This was primarily, it seems, a religious event rather than a political event but addressed political issues. 

Part of the message of the protest was racial reconciliation. A participant at the even by the name of McKibben is quoted in the Tennessean as saying that one of the messages that stood out to her from the event was that of racial reconciliation. This has long been a staple of evangelical, especially charismatic, Christianity.  Feucht has expressed opposition to the BLM movement but approves of the sentiment.  He has let protest in opposition to BLM. "We can’t let our God-given empathy get hijacked by a dark movement with hidden agendas",  he has said on Facebook, according to The Tennessean

The Tennessean and local government leaders and some mainstream Christian faith leaders have expressed concern over the large gathering with minimal social distancing and many not wearing mask.  This is so hypocritical.  Local officials said the event took place without a permit and the city was investigating and would pursue appropriate penalties against the organizer. 

This is the heights of hypocrisy.  Time and time again BLM has protested in Nashville and even closed streets with no permit.  David Plazas community engagement editor for the Tennessean, editorialized about how irresponsible Feucht's event was. He has not so editorialized when thousands of BLM protestors took to the streets. This is an example of how our liberties are at stake. When favored groups can have a protest without a permit but groups not favored are suppose to get a permit, we are less free. When the government urges people to join the unpermitted protest of a favored group but threatens to take punitive action against an unfavored group for a protest, we are not free.   Either a permit is required for a protest or it is not. Equality under the law is a basic tenant of democratic systems.  I will gladly attend a unpermitted protest about the selective enforcement of law and government having one set of rules for favored groups and another set of rules for unfavored groups. 

For more info on this see the following: link, link, Rogue Pandemic Preacher Brings ‘Superspreader’ Terror to Nashville.

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Happy Columbus Day!

Columbus was Awesome 

Let's be honest, few would do what he did. 
Oh, and the indigenous peoples were guilty of the same stuff. 

by David Foley, reposted from Intellectual Takeout - Yes, it’s in vogue to forsake our Western heritage, to see dead, white men as evil barbarians. But let’s be honest, the reason they’ve been celebrated is because what they did, despite their sins, was incredible. Columbus is certainly one of those men. 

In an age when many teenage Americans are too terrified to even state their opinion in a high school class for fear of getting a bad grade and not getting into college, Columbus was already sailing the ocean blue, with reports that he went as far as the coast of Guinea in West Africa – that’s several thousand nautical miles from his home port! 

Dirt poor and already denied twice, Columbus finally won over Queen Isabella of Spain who then infuenced her husband, King Ferdinand, to support the expedition across the Atlantic. And so it was on August 3, 1492, that Admiral Columbus set sail into the great unknown with a squadron of tiny ships, the Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria. 

Now, put yourself into the expedition. In looking back, modern man seems tempted to harshly judge every sin of a man whom the current culture has chosen to be against, while failing to judge the whole man and what he accomplished. How many today would have the courage of not just Columbus, but of the other 120 men aboard those little ships (at most, 60 feet long) to sail into the unknown, likely to fail and even to die? 

Here’s the famous poem (forgotten by today’s educators) by Joaquin Miller that captures what it must have been like on that long voyage across the Atlantic: 

by Joaquin Miller 

Behind him lay the gray Azores, 
Behind the Gates of Hercules; 
Before him not the ghost of shores, 
Before him only shoreless seas.
The good mate said: “Now must we pray, 
For lo! The very stars are gone. 
Brave Adm’r’l, speak, what shall I say?” 
“Why, say: ‘Sail on! Sail on! And on!’” 

“My men grow mutinous day by day; 
My men grow ghastly wan and weak.” 
Be stout mate thought of home; a spray 
Of salt wave washed his swarthy cheek. 
“What shall I say, brave Adm’r’l, say, 
If we sight naught but seas at dawn?” 
“Why, you shall say, at break of day: 
‘Sail on! Sail on! Sail on! And on!’” 

They sailed and sailed, as winds might blow, 
Until at last the blanched mate said: 
“Why, now not even God would know 
Should I and all my men fall dead. 
These very winds forget their way, 
For God from these dread seas is gone. 
Now speak, brave Adm’r’l; speak and say” 
He said: “Sail on! Sail on! And on!” 

They sailed. They sailed. Then spake the mate: 
“This mad sea shows his teeth to-night; 
He curls his lips, he lies in wait, 
With lifted teeth, as if to bite: 
Brave Adm’r’l, say but one good word; 
What shall we do when hope is gone?” 
The words leapt like a leaping sword: 
“Sail on! Sail on! Sail on! And on!” 

Then pale and worn, he kept his deck, 
And peered through darkness. Ah, that night 
Of all dark nights! And then a speck-
A light! A Light! A light! A light! 
It grew, a starlit flag unfurled! 
It grew to be Time’s burst of dawn. 
He gained a world; he gave that world
Its grandest lesson: “On! Sail on!” 

And so it was on October 12 that Columbus and his men landed in what is now called the West Indies. Such a story should be remembered and celebrated. 

As for Columbus and the native populations, the story is mixed. It would appear from the historical record that Columbus was quite kind and protective of the Arawak tribe at the location of his first landing. On his second voyage, he came in contact with the Carib tribe, which had been attacking and plundering the Arawak tribe, driving it into isolation and stealing its women and children, as well as initiating acts of cannibalism. Columbus saw the Caribs as natural enemies. But it was the Arawaks and other tribes that massacred his men that he le behind. Aer that, the violence kicked o and there were certainly terrible abuses by both the native populations and the Europeans.

Without a doubt, Columbus did some horrible things, including sending natives back to Spain as slaves who ironically were not treated as such initially. Should he be celebrated for some of his later deeds? Probably not. And so the complexities of history and the imperfections of men reveal themselves to us. But that is also the case of the native populations. 

Today, any number of classrooms and cities celebrate “Indigenous People’s Day” or some such thing as a way to repent of Columbus’ and the West’s sins of conquest. And yet, when we look at the historical record of indigenous peoples, they were no less blood thirsty (often more so) than the Europeans. Indeed, they conquered and enslaved each other with great frequency. 

If it is the case that the Europeans and Columbus are to be reviled for conquering and enslaving, then should we not hold the indigenous peoples to the same standard? If it was fair for them to conquer each other, then what was wrong with the Europeans conquering and spreading their civilization? Since the Europeans and the indigenous peoples shared in their sins against their fellow men, on this day feel no guilt in celebrating Columbus and his intrepid voyage across the Atlantic. He wasn’t perfect, but he was a giant among men.

Devin Foley is the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Charlemagne Institute, which operates Intellectual Takeout, Chronicles: A Magazine of American Culture, and the Alcuin Internship.

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Trump will not win in a landslide. He may lose. If he loses, what follows?

by Rod Williams - I read a lot of political news from a lot of sources and have read article after article reporting on polls that forecast the victor in the upcoming election.  Most national polls show Biden with a substantial lead.  Even if correct those are irrelevant.  It doesn't matter if Biden wins the popular vote; that is not how the winner in an election is determined. What matters is who will win the most electoral votes.  Those polls that recognize the real contest is a contest for electoral votes still, unfortunately, show a Biden lead.  

Some polls are more believable than others.  If a poll samples registered voters it is not near as good of an indicator of election results as a poll that samples likely voters.  There are a couple polls that do not ask directly who one is going to vote for but ask questions that indicate the strength of the president.  One ask if you are better off now than you were four years ago.  Surprisingly, since we are in the midst of a recession brought on by the pandemic, people still answer that question in the affirmative.  The other is a question that ask people who they think their neighbors will vote for.  They think their neighbors will vote for Trump. These are strong indicators favoring Trump. On balance however, most polls show Biden with a comfortable lead. 

I have been feeling like Trump was losing the election for some time.  When I talk to other Republicans however, I am amazed at how so many seem confident of a Trump victory.  Not only do they think he will win, but they think he will win in a landslide. This piece in National Review by Kevin Williamson, Far-Fetched Dreams of a Trump Landslide, I think counters that contention and is one of the best pieces I have read on the topic of the polls.  I think this piece is right. Trump is in trouble. If he wins, I think it will be by a razor thin margin. 

I think a lot of those who say they believe Trump will win in a landslide are engaged in wishful thinking or are delusional or get too much of their opinion from radio talk show host or are whistling past the grave yard or do not want to dispirit the faithful. People always pretend to think they are going to win even when they don't. It is sort of like a pep rally. You want your team not to lose hope even when the odds are against you. 

I missed it in 2016. I expected a Hillary victory. I may be wrong this time too but I don't think so. It is still not a lost cause however, so Republicans should still try to win. It is winnable but the odds are against it. I want to win, but at this point I will be surprised if we do. 

What if Trump does lose?  If he does lose, there will not be mass rioting by Republicans.  I don't think we will burn down any cities.  I don't even think you will see Republicans fall to their knees in anguish and sob uncontrollably on national TV.  Republicans will act like grownups. 

Should we lose it is not the end of the world, especially if we can get Amy Comey Barrett confirmed between now and the end of Trump's term. I would prefer a Trump victory and I will vote for him, but I don't think a Biden victory would be a disaster. Biden has adopted most of the left's platform, but he is not a true lefty. He will not have a lot of passion for passing the Party's agenda. If he wins, I don't think we will get a Green New Deal or Medicare for all or pack the Supreme Court. I doubt he will tear down the 200 miles of wall build under Trump. I doubt he will promote abolishing the police. I don't think Biden really has a passion for those things.  I don't know that Biden has much passion for much of anything.

I don't think Congress will want to tackle major health care reform.  While the left may have a passion for socializing our health care system, most Americans are happy with the health care they have.  Health care reform is complicated and time consuming.  It is a quagmire.  Maybe there will be an attempt to nibble around the edges and build on Obamacare, but I do not expect a wholesale nationalization. 

Likewise, I don't expect the Green New Deal to become law.  The Green New Deal is a fantasy.  While one can pay lib service to it as a candidate, once elected, I don't think most Democrats are ready to jump off the deep end.  As candidates they may say they are for it, but most are not Marxist or crazy.  Once elected they have to deal with reality.  They will become more responsible.  They may pass some detrimental bills in the name of combating global warming, but I don't think the Green New Deal has even the remotest chance of becoming law.

Packing the Supreme Court is the thing I am most concerned they may attempt, but I will be surprised if it happens.  Once the enormity of what a radical step it is they are taking happens, I think they will reconsider and I think there will be a public outcry over such radical change.  In 1937 President Franklin Roosevelt announced a plan to expand the Supreme Court to as many as 15 judges.  This plan was attacked as Roosevelt trying to “pack” the court and neutralize Supreme Court justices hostile to his New Deal.  In the previous two years many of FDR's New Deal power grabs were struck down as unconstitutional.  This is not 1927, but FDR was more popular than will be Biden and FDR had postured as having legitimate complains that his effort to save a nation from the Great Depression was being thwarted by the courts. America was at that time as about as far to the left as it is today. Socialism was popular but the public did not want FDR to capture the Court and control all three branches of government.  I think if Biden proposes it, there will be a public outcry and it will tarnish his Presidency and risk loss of Congress.  I worry but don't think it will happen.  

So, I don't thing the worst they could happen, will happen.  However some bad things will happen.  Taxes will increase and economic advances by Blacks and Latinos and the general populist will be lost.  There will be an increase in inequality and poverty.  Fracking will be banned and will will lose our energy independence and resume importing oil.  Gas prices and CO2 emissions will increase.  We will ignore illegal immigration and it will increase. We will see a drastic increase in the regulatory state. The advances made by Trump in cutting regulations will be undone. 

Biden will only have two years to get much done however. The next mid-term, I think Republicans will take the House. A lot of people hate Trump and will turn out to vote against him but they will not turn out in a mid-term. In four years Biden will be old and I doubt he will run for a second term or be elected if he does run. 

In my view, a Trump loss with Republicans holding the Senate would not be a bad outcome at all. I would rather hold the Senate than keep the presidency if that was a choice. A few years of gridlock would not be a bad thing. Frankly, I care more about the Senate than I do the presidency. 

I am not going to be devastated if Trump does lose. Don't get me wrong. I like much of what he has achieved, especially the filling of so many lower court positions with originalist jurist. I like the economic growth. Part of that was achieved by the cutting of the bureaucratic state, but part was a "sugar high" brought about by tax cuts that did not pay for themselves and indebted our descendants. 

I like his making NATO live up to their commitment. I like him putting troops in Poland. I like his moving our embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. I am pleased America achieved energy independence which would not have happened under a Democrat. He has tackled some tough issues that needed to be addressed. He has left a lot undone however, I am not sure he will do them in a second term. Social Security running out of money, a healthcare system in need of reform and national debt out of control are things he doesn't seem to have much appetite for. 

I don't think Trump is a conservative. He is a populist. His abuse of Executive Orders would be things Republicans would be outraged about if done by a Democrat. His banning of evictions by claiming that it is an authority he has based on the power to control health a crisis? Give me a break. That is a power grab as bad as Obama's taking over every mud puddle in America. 

The deficit has ballooned. Republicans don't mention it.  I like Trump's  tough stance on China, but banning imports of aluminum from Canada? Not so much. I like his attempt to curtail illegal immigration, but curtailing legal immigration? Not so much. Also, I think he is somewhat of an egotistical, unempathetic jerk who is too prone to speak without thinking and who often doesn't get his facts right. 

If Trump does lose, Republicans may rediscover some of their values. I hope Trump wins, but it would not be the end of the world if he doesn't and frankly, I don't think he will. Of course, maybe there will be an October surprise and he will pull a rabbit out the hat but as of now, I think he is losing. He is certainly not wining by a landslide.  I believe the polls.

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Sunday, October 11, 2020

Top Democrats Contemplate Civil War If Biden Loses

by Rod Williams - Everyone who follows the news knows of the liberal fear or fake posturing fear that that if Trump loses the election, especially that if he loses by a thin margin, that he will refuse to leave office and we will have a crisis. 

Part of this is Trump's own fault.  When asked if he would relinquish his office if he loses the election  he has said, "We'll see."  Trump is not very good at articulating a nuanced response and explaining complex issues. He should have said, "First of all the question is insulting.  But of course, I will follow the law.  If I lose we will of course have a normal transfer of power and a smooth transition.  However, if the Democrats attempt to steal the election and the outcome is in doubt on inauguration day we may have to wait until the Courts untangle some legal issues. I am going to respect the constitution but I will fight back if the outcome is still in doubt following the election.   I fully expect to win, however, and do not expect a crisis."

That is just not Trump's style. When asked a stupid insulting question he snaps back.  I would have not been very surprised if he would of said. "Hell no, I'd not leaving. I am going to be President for life and following the election you better pack your bags for the Gulag." His fans would have loved it.  That like his take-no-bullshit approach. 

In addition to Trumps own inarticulate response to an insulting question, the main source of the fear that Trump would not peacefully transition resulted from a scenario posited by something called "The Transition Integrity Project."

 (TIP) was a series of June 2020 political scenario exercises involving over 100 current and former senior government and campaign leaders, academics, journalists, polling experts and former federal and state government officials.  There were several prominent Republicans in among the participants but they were "never Trumpers."  There were no Trump loyalist among the body.

The exercises examined potential disruptions to the 2020 United States presidential election and transition. This is where the theory was developed that Trump would try to hold on to power if he lost the election. Informed people are familiar with that theory. Less know is the scenario that ask what will happen if there is a clear Trump win.  This is how Wikipedia explains it.
Game Three: Clear Trump Win. The third scenario started with an Electoral College victory for President Trump (286 to 252), but a popular vote win (52% to 47%) for former Vice President Biden. In this scenario Biden refused to concede, convinced the Democratic governors of two states that Trump won to send separate slates of electors to the Electoral College, encouraged three states to threaten secession and convinced the House of Representatives to refuse to certify the election and declare Biden the victor." 

This is pretty fascinating and I think it is a real possibility.  If the election does lead to civil war, this is likely the way it happens. The participant to articulate this theory was Democrat John Podesta. He was White House Chief of Staff to President Bill Clinton from 1998 to 2001 and Counselor to President Barack Obama from 2014 to 2015.  This of course does not mean Podesta nor his team believes this is what will happen. The whole project was "war games" or playing "what if." Here is the theory from the report itself:

Game Three: Clear Trump Win 

The third scenario posited a comfortable Electoral College victory for President Trump — 286-252 — but also a significant popular vote win—52% - 47%--for former Vice President Biden. The game play ended in a constitutional crisis, with threats of secession, and the potential for either a decline into authoritarianism or a radically revamped set of democratic rules that ensure the popular will prevails (abolishment of the Electoral College, making DC and Puerto Rico states, and other changes). Key moves and actions include:

Turn One: The Trump Campaign had two main objectives at the outset of the scenario. The first priority was to legitimize the Electoral College results by pushing narratives that cast doubt on former Vice President Biden’s popular vote victory and portraying wide-spread protests of President Trump as anti-American, undemocratic, and promoting mob rule. The Trump Campaign planted agent provocateurs into the protests throughout the country to ensure these protests turned violent and helped further the narrative of a violent insurrection against a lawfully elected president.

The second Trump Campaign priority was to consolidate power to reduce or eliminate the “Deep State” and broader institutional resistance to President Trump’s agenda for his second term. Specific measures included selective promotions of military personnel with “pro-American views”, rushing judicial nominations, increasing financial incentives to big business, and working with states to maximize GOP control through redistricting. The GOP Elected Officials team was supportive of Trump’s efforts to crack down on protests. Establishing “law and order” and defeating the “anarchists” was a unifying call. But they pressed President Trump to “slow down” on the campaign’s more aggressive and overt efforts to consolidate power, partly out of concern that they would lose the support of moderate Democrats needed to publicly declare Trump’s victory legitimate.

The most consequential action of the first turn was the Biden Campaign’s retraction of its election night concession. It capitalized on the public’s outrage that for the third time in 20 years a candidate lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College. They also capitalized on concern about widespread voter suppression before and on Election Day. The Biden Campaign began the game by encouraging three states with Democratic governors—North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan—to ask for recounts. As the game developed, governors in two of the three (Wisconsin and Michigan) sent separate slates of electors to counter those sent by the state legislature. The GOP failed to convince moderate Democrats in the House to break ranks with the Democratic resistance and support Trump’s electoral victory, much to the GOP’s surprise.

Part of the strategy here was to attack the Electoral College and to claim that the certified popular votes in these states were questionable because of voter suppression. At the end of the first turn, the country was in the midst of a full-blown constitutional crisis characterized by: 1) Political chaos; 2) Widespread threats of violence, and sporadic actual violence in the streets; and 4) A hostile, dangerous, highly-partisan, and frequently unconstrained information and media environment.

Turns Two and Three: The Biden Campaign encouraged Western states, particularly California but also Oregon and Washington, and collectively known as “Cascadia,” to secede from the Union unless Congressional Republicans agreed to a set of structural reforms to fix our democratic system to ensure majority rule. With advice from President Obama, the Biden Campaign submitted a proposal to:
1) Give statehood to Washington, DC and Puerto Rico;
2) Divide California into five states to more accurately represent its population in the Senate;
3) Require Supreme Court justices to retire at 70; and
4) Eliminate the Electoral College, to ensure that the candidate who wins to the popular vote becomes President.
As the scenario evolved, the Trump Team focused its efforts on driving a wedge into the disparate and, in the view of many participants, fragile Democratic coalition. For example, during the second turn, Trump gave an interview to The Intercept in which he stated that he would have lost the election if Bernie Sanders had been nominated. The Trump Team’s approach in turns two and three also emphasized creating the conditions to force the Biden Campaign into taking provocative, unprecedented actions—such as supporting California’s secession or sending a second slate of electors—that played into a broader narrative of the Democrats attempting to orchestrate an illegal coup.
The team also tried to position President Trump as a “unifier”—working with top CEOs, holding a unifying event at the Lincoln Memorial, offering to establish a commission to review electoral rules—and as prioritizing safety and security in the face of radical groups supporting Joe Biden and trying to destroy America.
One of the most consequential moves was that Team Biden on January 6 provoked a breakdown in the joint session of Congress by getting the House of Representatives to agree to award the presidency to Biden (based on the alternative pro-Biden submissions sent by pro-Biden governors). Pence and the GOP refused to accept this, declaring instead that Trump was reelected under the Constitution because of his Electoral College victory. This partisan division remained unresolved because neither side backed down, and January 20 arrived without a single president-elect entitled to be Commander-in-Chief after noon that day. It was unclear what the military would do in this situation. 

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