Democrat Pollster finds 55% of Tennesseans disapprove of tax reform plan

A company was expanding rapidly and its operations were becoming more complex and the company president decided he needed to hire a Director of Finance. He advertised the position and after narrowing the search, whittled the applicants down to three people, a mathematician, an accountant, and an economist. During the job interview he asked each of the applicants a simple question: "What is two plus two?"

The mathematician said, "That's simple. It's four."  The accountant said, "There is a 99% probability that it is four, given a plus or minus factor of .02."  The economist looked both ways, lowered his head, leaned in, and in a low voice said, "What to you want it to be?" This could also apply to consultants and pollsters.

The Tennessean reports, "Poll, Tennesseans disapprove of congressional tax plan."  That headline should qualify the news story as "fake news." Not that the facts are fake, but that it is presented as if it had some validity.  Unfortunately, that is the similar headline that newspapers across Tennessee used to report this story and is how the media in Maine and Arizona reported the story in their state where the same polling firm also conducted polls and found similar results.

The polling firm conducting the poll was Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates and the poll was paid for by the left-leaning Institute on Taxes and Economic Policy and Americans for Tax Fairness. The firm polled 400 registered Tennessee voters and found only 57 percent of those polled were familiar with the plan, and among those familiar with it, 55 percent disapprove of the measure.

The Tennessean does not give the actual wording of the poll, but this quote from the article is revealing: "The poll takes as fact the plan will cause (insurance) premiums to increase; when presented with this prospect, 77 percent of respondents said they were less likely to support the plan."

The Republicans need to commission a poll that finds 70% approve of the proposed tax reform plan.  I am not trained as a professional pollster but I believe I could design a poll question that could elicit 70% approval.

Top Stories

Bellevue Breakfast Club featuring Gubernatorial Candidate Bill Lee

Saturday, Dec. 2nd at 8am

The River Art Studio, 8327 Sawyer Brown Rd, two doors down from the Plantation Pub.

Guest speaker will be Bill Lee, candidate for Governor.  Come and hear his ideas for Tennessee's future.  We plan to have time for Q&A.  Coffee and pastries will be served.

Top Stories

Marsha Blackburn is First Tuesday guest on Monday Dec. 4th

From Tim Skow, host of First Tuesday:

1ST TUESDAY Members and friends.

Are YOU coming Monday ?

Congressman MARSHA BLACKBURN returns MONDAY...Dec 4th...This time as a candidate for the US SENATE !

''YUUUUGGE" topics including... but not limited to:

1] TAX Reform !!

2] DEMs threat of Federal Government SHUT DOWN on Dec 8th!

3] The coming SENATE primary vs former Congressman Fincher

4] North Korea, China and Russia

5] Roy Moore vs Mitch McConnell .... and MORE ! 

Who knows what else will spring up by Monday? Michael Flynn? 

This 1ST TUESDAY will be NOT be your typical Christmas Party!

Doors open at 11am. Event is $20 for Members $25 for Guests.

Program starts at NOON sharp. Q&A concludes at 1:00pm.

Secure seating for you [and guests] at www.1sttuesdaynashville.com

[  SOME are having trouble with the $25 GUEST icon. IF you do, then use the $25 DUES icon ]

Just a reminder of the 1ST TUESDAY ''Happy News'' of this season.

Those AT LUNCH .... who contribute $50 ...or more $$ ... To the Nashville Republican Women's toy fund drive on behalf of the children of TN National Guard members will have their 2018 dues waived!

SECURE your seats! PASS the word! and ''JOIN US'' for a RED HOT Holiday version of 1ST TUESDAY ... on Monday, Dec 4th !

See you then ... if not before!

Tim Skow

Host of 1ST TUESDAY !

Top Stories

What happened at the 11/20/2017 Council meeting: $133.2 million in general obligation bonds approved, demolition of Fairground buildings defeated, banning rope lighting deferred.

To access the Council agenda, the Council staff analysis and my commentary on the agenda, follow this link.


This meeting is  an hour and 45 minutes long. All mayoral appointments to boards and commissions are approved without dissension. Most Resolutions are approved lumped together on the "consent" agenda agenda. Below are the items of interest.

Resolutions

RESOLUTION RS2017-963  approves the issuance of up to $133.2 million in  general obligation bonds to provide funding for various projects contained in the Mayor’s mid-year Capital Spending Plan. This planned spending is for projects known about and approved. It includes additional funding for a planned community ice center in Bellevue operated by the Nashville Predators, additional funding for the ongoing renovation of Hillsboro High School, construction of a new Metro police headquarters on Murfeesboro Pike, and reconstruction of the Criminal Justice Center, which houses the downtown jail. All of these projects are already under way. There are a few questions asked from the floor but no real controversy. Most discussion of legislation takes place in committee. If you want to learn more about this issue, you may want to watch the Budget and Finance Committee meeting. This resolution passes on a voice vote.

RESOLUTION RS2017-965  declares certain properties as surplus and gives the property to selected nonprofit organizations, and authorizes grants of up to $4.5 million from the Barnes Fund for affordable housing to the selected nonprofit organizations for the purpose of constructing and rehabilitating affordable or "workforce" housing. This is fulfillment of what is already a policy. To see the address of the properties and a list of the non-profits and how much each receive, read the bill. The Woodbine Community Organization gets $1.2 million which is the largest grant. This was approved on the consent agenda.

RESOLUTION RS2017-966  authorizes the Mayor to employ the law firm of Lieff Cabraser Heimann &Bernstein, LLP, as special counsel to pursue claims against manufacturers and distributors of prescription opioids that have "wrongfully caused drug addiction in Davidson County." In some cases the law firm could get up to 20% of any money awarded the city. A question is asked and answered as to how this firm was selected. RFP's were issued to ten firms. Five of them submitted proposals. Questions are asked by Black members of the Council as to the diversity of the law firm selected. Not getting an answer to the question a motion is made to defer the matter. The motion to defer is approved by a vote of 22 to 15.

While I have absolutely no reason to question the process, but having an inquiring mind, I would like to know which of the firms had employees that made political contributions to mayoral candidates and to whom they contributed and how much. If I were a news organization with staff, I would research this question.

 Bills on First reading: There are 21 bills on first reading. First reading is a formality that gets bills on the agenda and they are not considered by committee until after they pass first reading. Bills on First Reading are all lumped together and usually pass by a single vote except in extremely rare cases. This is one of those cases.

BILL BL2017-950  approves the demolition of  Fairgrounds buildings necessary to construct, improve, renovate and equip the Major League soccer stadium and stadium-related infrastructure referenced in Resolution No. RS2017-910. Due to a charter requirement, it takes 27 votes on third and final reading to approve any changes at the fairground. The referenced resolution is the resolution passed last council meeting to issue bonds for the soccer stadium deal. Included in that soccer stadium deal was an understanding that some of the old building on the fairgrounds would be replaced. That resolution itself however did not approve any changes at the fairground. It approved a bond issue and an accompanying financial arrangement. The problem with this bill is that none of the buildings are identified and it appears to be a blank check to tear down buildings at the fairgrounds without knowing what will be replaced. I do not like that. However, it seems to me that this bill should have been allowed to pass on first reading so questions could be answered and a full discussion could have taken place in committee and then the bill could have been defeated or amended or passed. Debating bills on First Reading defeats the purpose of the committee system. Many on the council appear confused about how to vote and the impact of their vote and I share that confusion. This bills is deferred indefinitely. Maybe there was a reason to defeat this on First reading, but if so I don't understand it.

Bills on Second Reading. There are 13 bills on Second Reading. These are the ones of interest.

BILL BL2017-949 codifies what is already a policy of metro and establishes a debt management policy for the city.  Metro would be prohibited from issuing or incurring any debt in violation of this debt management policy unless approved in advance by Council resolution. To understand the policy, see the bill and the staff analysis. This is a good bill. It passes on a voice vote.

BILL BL2017-952 says that private consultants and contractors who offer services assessing the initial cost, feasibility or adoption of a public project would be prohibited from subsequently bidding on the actual project. This seems like a reasonable policy. It is deferred one meeting. 

BILL BL2017-953  restrict door-to-door commercial solicitation to daylight hours. As one who once sold cable TV door-to-door when Viacom was new to Nashville, this seems overly restrictive, especially in the winter when it is dark at 5:30. When I was selling cable, I often worked till 8PM. This is deferred one meeting.

Bills on Third Reading. There are 27 bills on third reading. Most are zoning bills that have been approved by the Planning Commission or are approved subject to modification as recommended by the Planning Commission. Below are the ones of interest. 

BILL BL2017-903 bans decorative "rope lighting" on any building, sign, or property with non-residential zoning located adjacent to an arterial or collector street except those in the downtown area. A previous version of this would have banned it everywhere on all property. Rope lighting is that lighting that you have probably seen that outlines a tree or structure. It is often used as Christmas decorations but sometimes is used year-round. Why one would want to ban this I have no idea.. The sponsor says it is for the safety of the motoring public and to protect people with epilepsy. I am not buying that explanation for a minute. This is an overreach of government. Several members speak against it and on a voice vote it is deferred one meeting.

BILL BL2017-939 would add an additional obstacle to adopting the mayor's proposed transit plan. The state enabling legislation allowing for transit improvement known as the IMPROVE Act, provides that a  transit improvement program be adopted by ordinance or resolution by majority vote of the local government’s legislative body. This bills specifies that such a plan must must be approved by ordinance rather than a resolution. A resolution only requires one vote of the Council; a ordinance requires three votes. This is a good bill. It passes.

Top Stories

Transit expert calls Mayor Barry's light-rail plan "simply a bad investment."

Randal O'Toole, a public policy analyst with the Cato Institute, has publicly criticized Barry's light-rail transit proposal, saying it is "simply a bad investment." Mayor Barry has proposed spending $5.2 million to build a 26 mile light rail system. To fund the system, Mayor Barry is proposing a sales tax increase that will make Nashville the city with the second highest sales tax rate in the nation. 

O'Toole's article titled, "It’s the Last Stop on the Light-Rail Gravy Train," appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Unless one is a subscriber to WSJ one can not access the article. Below are  excepts. The highlighting is mine.

When it comes to mass transit, politicians never learn. Last month, Nashville Mayor Megan Berry announced a $5.2 billion proposal that involves building 26 miles of light rail and digging an expensive tunnel under the city’s downtown. Voters will be asked in May to approve a half-cent sales tax increase plus additions to hotel, car rental and business excise taxes to pay for the project. …

These proposals are questionable at best and reckless at worst, given that transit ridership — including bus and what little rail these regions have—is down in all three jurisdictions. This is a nationwide trend: Data released this week by the Federal Transit Administration shows that ridership is falling in nearly every major urban area (with Seattle as a notable exception). 

The main reason for this drop-off is that low gas prices and ride-sharing services have given people better options. Census data show that 96% of American workers live in households with at least one car, and anyone with a smartphone can summon an Uber or Lyft.

That said, transit ridership has been sliding for decades as jobs have become less highly concentrated in city centers. Since 1970, the number of transit trips taken per urban resident has fallen more than 20%. Outside the areas of New York, Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Washington, transit carries less than 1% of passenger travel. This belies the claim that mass transit is vital to urban economies…According to the Department of Transportation, the nationwide transit maintenance backlog is approaching $100 billion, .... Instead of spending billions on new rail lines, cities like Nashville, San Antonio and Tampa ought to use buses to move people faster, more safely, and for far less money. Rail is simply a bad investment.

Some analysts predict that by the middle of the next decade, calling a driverless car will be as easy as hailing an Uber today. Why walk in the heat or cold for a bus or streetcar when you can hail a driverless car to your door for less money than the transit fare? Nashville’s first light-rail line won’t even open until 2026. By then, who’s going to want to use it?

Top Stories

What's on the Council agenda for 11/21/2017: A bond issue for $133 million and not much else of interest.

I do not see anything on this agenda that is likely to generate controversy. There is no public hearing, so this should be a relatively short meeting.


The Metro Council will meet Tuesday, November 21, 2017 at 6:30 PM in the Council chamber at the Metro Courthouse. If you are going to watch the Council meeting, you need a copy of the Council agenda and the staff analysis  you really will not know what is going on. You can get the agenda and analysis at the highlighted links.

There are nine mayoral appointees to Boards and Commission on the agenda for confirmation and as always they will be affirmed. There are no resolutions or bills on Public hearing. 

There are 14 resolutions all of which are on the consent agenda. A resolution stays on the consent agenda if it passes unanimously the committees to which has been assigned. Since the committees have not met yet, some resolutions which are listed as on the consent agenda may not be on the consent agenda when the council meets. Resolutions on the consent agenda are usually not controversial and tend to be routine matters, such as accepting grants from the Federal or State Government, entering into inter agency agreements over mundane things, appropriating money from the 4% fund, settling lawsuits, or approving signs overhanging the sidewalk. Resolutions on the consent agenda are lumped together and passed by a single vote of the Council rather than being considered individually. Any member of the body however, may have a resolution pulled off of the consent agenda or have their "no" vote or abstention recorded. Unlike a bill which requires three votes of the Council to pass, a resolution only requires one vote of the Council. Below are the resolutions of interest.

RESOLUTION RS2017-963  approve the issuance of up to $133.2 million in  general obligation bonds to provide funding for various projects contained in the Mayor’s mid-year Capital Spending Plan. That is a lot of money. However, this is nothing to be alarmed about. This planned spending is for projects known about and approved. It includes additional funding for a planned community ice center in Bellevue operated by the Nashville Predators, additional funding for the ongoing renovation of Hillsboro High School, construction of a new Metro police headquarters on Murfeesboro Pike, and reconstruction of the Criminal Justice Center, which houses the downtown jail. All of these projects are already under way. I expect this to be approved without controversy. For more on this, read the bill or the Council staff analysis. To read The Tennessean report on this bill follow this link.

RESOLUTION RS2017-965  declares certain properties as surplus and gives the property to selected nonprofit organizations, and authorizes grants of up to $4.5 million from the Barnes Fund for affordable housing to the selected nonprofit organizations for the purpose of constructing and rehabilitating affordable or "workforce" housing. This is fulfillment of what is already a policy. To see the address of the properties and a list of the non-profits and how much each receive, read the bill. The Woodbine Community Organization gets $1.2 million which is the largest grant.

RESOLUTION RS2017-966  authorizes the Mayor to employ the law firm of Lieff Cabraser Heimann &Bernstein, LLP, as special counsel to pursue claims against manufacturers and distributors of prescription opioids that have "wrongfully caused drug addiction in Davidson County."

 Bills on First reading: There are 21 bills on first reading. First reading is a formality that gets bills on the agenda and they are not considered by committee until after they pass first reading. I do not read them until they get to second reading. Bills on First Reading are all lumped together and pass by a single vote except in extremely rare cases.

Bills on Second Reading. There are 13 bills on Second Reading. These are the ones of interest.

BILL BL2017-949 codifies what is already a policy of metro and establishes a debt management policy for the city.  Metro would be prohibited from issuing or incurring any debt in violation of this debt management policy unless approved in advance by Council resolution. To understand the policy, see the bill and the staff analysis. This is a good bill.

BILL BL2017-952 says that private consultants and contractors who offer services assessing the initial cost, feasibility or adoption of a public project would be prohibited from subsequently bidding on the actual project. This seems like a reasonable policy.  

BILL BL2017-953  restrict door-to-door commercial solicitation to daylight hours. As one who once sold cable TV door-to-door when Viacon was new to Nashville, this seems overly restrictive, especially in the winter when it is dark at 5:30. When I was selling cable, I often worked till 8PM. 

Bills on Third Reading. There are 27 bills on third reading. Most are zoning bills that have been approved by the Planning Commission or are approved subject to modification as recommended by the Planning Commission. Below are the ones of interest.

BILL BL2017-939 would add additional obstacles to adopting the mayor's proposed transit plan. The state enabling legislation allowing for transit improvement known as the IMPROVE Act, provides that a  transit improvement program be adopted by ordinance or resolution by majority vote of the local government’s legislative body. This bills specifies that such a plan must must be approved by ordinance rather than a resolution. A resolution only requires one vote of the Council; a ordinance requires three votes. This is a good bill. It passed Second Reading on a voice vote.

To watch the Council meeting, you can go to the courthouse and watch the meeting in person, or you can watch the broadcast live at Metro Nashville Network's Government TV on Nashville's Comcast Channel 3 and AT&T's U-verse 99 and it is streamed live at the Metro Nashville Network's livestream site and you can watch it live on Roku. You can catch the meeting the next day (or the day after the next) on the Metro YouTube channel. If can stand the suspense and just wait, I will post the video on this blog the day after or the day after that and provide commentary.

Top Stories

The Bastiat Society meets Thursday, November 30th, 6PM

To Register follow this link

Top Stories

Something to be thankful for: the cost of a 2017 Thanksgiving dinner is lower than last year and 23% lower than 1986

A lot of people really believe a lot of false stuff and it is hard to talk them out of if.  One false thing people believe is that violent crime is worse than in the past.  News of mass shootings and knowledge of rampant Black on Black gang related crime in a few cities can lead one to think that crime is worse, but overall  your chance of being a victim of crime is much less than in the past forty of so years.  I am not going to dig out the data to document this point but it is true.  If you doubt me, do the research.

Another thing people believe that is false is that groceries cost more than in the past. I had an elderly relative recently lament the cost of groceries and she told me that every time she went to the grocery store it seems like it cost more. She said the cost of groceries just keep going up.  That is not my experience. It seems like every time I go grocery shopping I see more little Kroger tags below items that say, "new lower price."  I have seen the data, groceries are consistently getting less costly.

Part of the reason people may think that groceries are more expensive is because they buy more expensive items and additional items. Twenty years ago bottled water was not a common grocery store purchase, now many people think they must buy water at the store rather than drink tap water.  Also, shoppers may buy the more expensive but convenient salad in a bag rather than a head of lettuce and other produce to make their own salad.  If, however, you are buying comparable quality of groceries, prices have dropped significantly. They have dropped in inflation adjusted dollars and in percent of income allocated to groceries.

I don't know why people want to believe bad news even when it is false. After all, there is really enough bad news to be depressed about. One reason I think ready to believe bad thing that are not true is because people just like to complain.  Bad news is more enjoyable to talk about than good news. The price of gas fluctuates. When a gallon of gas goes from $1.98 to $2.49 people will share their pain at the pump. Few share their celebration when gas drops from $2.49 to $1.98. People tell each other when they pay more at the pump, they don't tell each other when they pay less.

American Enterprise Institute recently examined the change in the cost of Thanksgiving dinner and found that the cost of a 2017 Thanksgiving dinner is lower than last year and 23% lower than 1986. Believe it and be thankful.

Top Stories