Friday, August 05, 2022

Andy Ogles wins District 5 GOP primary, and other election results.

Andy Ogles wins Congressional District 5 GOP primary.

The Dems take all of the Nashville school board elections. 

  • In District 2, Rachael Anne Elrod beat Republican challenger Todd Pembroke. 
  • In District 4, Berthena Nabaa-McKinney defeated Republican Kelli Phillips.
  • In  District 6, incumbent board member Fran Bush who ran as an independent and who was the only current member of the Board I liked, lost to Democratic challenger and former school board chair Cheryl Mayes.
All four amendments to the Metro charter passed by wide margins.

State Sen. Jack Johnson beat challenger Gary Humble in a tight District 27 Republican primary. In what is today's political spectrum, Humble, who is an anti-vaxer, ran to the right of Jack Johnson. That it was a close race shows just how nutty the Republican Party has become.  Johnson should have won by a landslide. 

Michelle Foreman wins the Republican primary in House District 59 beating Wyatt Rampy.  Foreman will face off against Democrat Caleb Hemmer in the November general election. 

In State House District 52, Left-wing activist Justin Jones won a close race defeating Councilmember Delishia Porterfield in the race to replace Rep. Mike Stewart. There is no Repubkucan candidate.  Jones may be remembered as one who led demonstrations against the police at Legislative Plaza, who threw a cup of coffee on Glen Casada, and who disrupted a Marsha Blackburn event a couple years ago.

In State House District 41, incumbent Terri Lynn Weaver lost the Republican primary to Smithville businessman Michael Hale who will face Tom Cook, the Democratic nominee, in the November 8th Tennessee General Election. (link)

For other election results follow these links

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The Tax Foundation and The National Taxpayers Union Foundation oppose the Inflation Reduction Act

by Rod Williams, Aug. 4, 2022- I recently posted The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget favors the Inflation Reduction Act. I explained that this was an organization I trusted. I quoted from the organization's analysis of the proposal giving their reasons for concluding that the IRA was a good piece of legislation and over the long haul would moderately reduce inflation and achieve some desirable outcomes.

I also said, however, "If I were in Congress I would not buck the party and vote for IRA because despite the recommendation of CFRFB there are other responsible voices persuading me it is not a wise move." One of those other responsible voices is The Tax Foundation. Below is their analysis.

Details & Analysis of the Senate Inflation Reduction Act Tax Provisions

 The Tax Foundation -Last-week’s Democrat-sponsored Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), successor to the House-passed Build Back Better Act of late 2021, has been touted by President Biden to, among other things, help reduce the country’s crippling inflation. Using the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model, we estimate that the Inflation Reduction Act would reduce long-run economic output by about 0.1 percent and eliminate about 30,000 full-time equivalent jobs in the United States. It would also reduce average after-tax incomes for taxpayers across every income quintile over the long run.

By reducing long-run economic growth, this bill may actually worsen inflation by constraining the productive capacity of the economy.

Our analysis contains estimates of the budgetary, economic, and distributional impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act as specified in bill text provided on July 27.

Using the General Equilibrium Model, we estimate that the tax provisions, IRS enforcement, and drug pricing provisions in the bill would increase federal revenues by about $656 billion over the budget window, before accounting for $352 billion in expanded tax credits for individuals and businesses, resulting in a net revenue increase of about $304 billion from 2022 to 2031.

Excluding the anticipated revenue from increased tax compliance and the drug pricing provisions, the bill would lose about $126 billion in revenue over the budget window. (Read more)

Another organization I trust is the National Taxpayers Union Foundation. Here is what they had to say:

The Inflation Reduction Act Probably Won’t Reduce Inflation

National Taxpayers Union Foundation- .... Policymakers like Sen. Manchin and some non-government stakeholders have praised the deficit reduction in the bill, arguing that this will reduce the record levels of inflation the U.S. economy has been experiencing for the better part of a year.

A closer look at the timing of the new spending and tax cuts in the bill (versus the timing of reduced spending and revenue increases) suggests that the bill won’t reduce inflation in the next few years because, on net, the Inflation Reduction Act may spend more than it saves in some of the early years. Any front-loaded deficits will increase interest payments on the national debt. As a rule of thumb based on CBO data, each $100 million increase in spending in 2023 will add $27 million to debt interest costs over the decade.

Only in FY 2027 do deficits start to decrease substantially, likely well beyond the immediate period of elevated inflation based on CBO estimates and consumer expectations. (FY 2022 is almost over, so it is likely that the IRA has no practical effects on government spending or revenues in FY 2022.) 

....The IRA may not pour fuel on the inflation fire like the American Rescue Plan Act did, but it is unlikely to reduce near-term inflationary pressures as proponents claim. The “paying down our national debt” that Sen. Manchin refers to won’t start occurring for five years. The “lowering [of] energy costs” involves investments in future technology that will require years to develop and take effect. And the “lowering [of] healthcare costs” doesn’t take effect for years (as with the prescription drug price controls) or merely masks high health care costs rather than meaningfully addressing them (as with the ACA subsidies). (read more)

Boring, right? Policy is often boring.  I have not attempted to master the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model just I have not mastered the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) or the analysis of The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, or the analysis of The Congressional Budget Office.  But I still trust experts who do analysis.  It is worth noting that experts often disagree.  On more mundane things like car repairs licensed mechanics may disagree until they get under the hood.  When dealing with health issues we are often advised to get a second opinion. Because experts disagree we do not stop listening to experts. People who know what they are talking about deserve to be heard more than does someone who may not know what they are talking about but have a lot of passion. 

One thing you will notice in the above excerpts from these two reports and from The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is the use of words like "probably" "may" and "suggest." I have underlined some of those terms above. These experts lack the certainty of the loud-mouthed TV pundits.  

Today on the car radio I heard some Republican politician (I didn't pay that close of attention to know who it was.) say that what was happening to our economy was no accident, that Democrats were intentionally trying to destroy the economy so they could impose Marxism on America.  I don't buy it. I think Democrat policies are almost always wrong, but I just do not accept that their motives are evil.  Sure, there are some Marxists on the left just as there are some anti-democratic forces on the right, but by and large, I still think most people mean well.  One can be wrong and yet not evil.

While I do not support The Inflation Reduction Act, it is not the worst thing to ever happen to our country. It won't do much good, but it probably won't do much harm either.  People need to get a grip and stop demonizing others over issues about which even informed experts lack certainty. 

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Bellevue Breakfast Club meets August 6th 8:30 AM.

From Lonnie Spivak:

 Greeting Breakfast Club Members,

Sorry for the late reminder, but I hope to see everyone this Saturday, August 6th for the Breakfast Club. As you can imagine, it has been a busy month with early voting and yesterday's primary, and I am looking forward to working with everyone on the general election in November. 

This month we have no scheduled speakers, but I am hoping we will have some special guests dropping by to discuss the recent primary and local elections. We will meet at our normal location (Plantation Pub, 8321 Sawyer Brown Rd.), and we will start around 8:30am.

Congratulations to the following Breakfast Club members on your election wins:

  • Mayor Andy Ogles
  • Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson
  • State Senator Mark Pody 
  • Future State Rep. Michelle Foreman
  • Lulu Elam

I also would like to thank all of the other candidates for putting your name on the ballot, and I hope you will continue to stay involved in state, and local politics.

See you Saturday.


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Thursday, August 04, 2022

The enemies of Michelle Foreman, candidate for Davidson County’s 59th

Hattie Bryant
by Hattie Bryant, Aug 3,2022-  The enemies of Michelle Foreman, candidate for Davidson County’s 59th State House District are channeling the far left.  We all saw with our own eyes a drug addict criminal caught by police who sadly died during the arrest process turned into the hero of all time.  Candace Owens said it when she asked the left, “Why turn this black man into a hero?  Black kids need real heroes.”

When with our own eyes we see a man who says he’s a woman, we are told that just because he says so we must agree. 

You see this with your own eyes.  Where does it say that Scott Golden, Chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party is endorsing Michelle Foreman?

The enemies of Michelle Foreman found a way to make Scott Golden say he doesn’t endorse Republican candidates in a contested primary.  So, the enemies of Michelle Foreman forced him to say what he didn’t say in this piece.

Gail Forsythe, Amy Dudley, and Mary Obersteadt have unleashed a steady drumbeat of lies about Michelle.  All four women are members of Nashville Republican Women.  Mary and Amy were officers just last year.   

To keep this simple I will provide just one of many posts created by these women. In jumping on the above mailer to give her something to write about you see Amy calling Michelle a liar.

The mailer above has Michelle’s endorsements in the blue section. There is no lie in this piece.  Men might be leaning back and laughing at this girl catfight; don’t feel guilty as I am laughing too at the silliness except that it hurts my candidate.

Now you see in the screenshot to the left, Amy calling Michelle a liar in print. Next, I receive an email from Gail repeating Amy’s post.   

If their candidate, Wyatt Rampy, had ever worked for the Republican Party or ever worked for any candidate or conservative causes, he too could have been praised by Scott Golden - but he didn't. And now, his groupies, aka the enemies of Michelle Foreman, are apparently upset that Michelle can and is using former praise for her work--because she earned it. 

Gail Forsythe, Amy Dudley and Mary Obersteadt are bullies, and this is not the first time I have called them out.   If you are curious about the source of their bitterness and vitriol, please read these articles.

Has Sharon Ford been caught with her hand in the cookie jar? Understanding the drama at TRA.

Who is Accusing a Prominent Conservative Radio Host of Corruption?

Here's the truth about Michelle: Michelle Foreman State House 59.

Volunteers for Michelle, which include me, have been told by her not to say anything negative about anyone—especially her opponent.  It’s hard when the opponent is praising the work of his groupies. So much for Mr. Rampy’s judgment.  (Insert eye-roll here.) 

Michelle Foreman is the PROVEN Republican on the ballot for State House in Davidson County’s 59.  And she has earned these endorsements because they know her: 

  • Fraternal Order of the Police, 
  • Americans for Prosperity, 
  • Tennessee Right to Life, 
  • Tennessee Republican Assembly, 
  • The Tennessee Conservative and 
  • Craig Huey’s Voter Guide of Tennessee.

Hattie Bryant is the District 19 Chair of the Davidson County Republican Party.  Learn more about her at

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Mayor John Cooper, Planned Parenthood of Tennessee to Host Informational Forum

Medical and Legal experts will discuss the impact of new laws governing reproductive freedom on Nashville residents

Metro Nashville Press release, August 4, 2022 - The Office of Mayor John Cooper and Planned Parenthood of Tennessee and North Mississippi will host a forum on Thursday, August 11 to discuss how the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade impacts Nashvillians. Medical and legal experts will provide critical information about how residents can access the information and resources they need as new laws governing reproductive freedom in Tennessee go into effect.

Nashville Post-Roe Forum Event Details

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Wednesday, August 03, 2022

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget favors the Inflation Reduction Act

by Rod Williams, Aug. 2, 2022- I have reached a point to where disgust with extreme partisanship makes me less likely to believe something just because a Fox news host or a Republican Congressman tells me it is true. When they continue to support the big lie of the stolen election and still display fealty to Donald Trump they are not to be trusted. 

Congress is on the verge of passing a bill called the Inflation Reduction Act which will raise taxes on the super-wealthy and fund some green energy initiatives and allow Medicare to negotiate with drug companies to lower drug prices and do some other things.  I tend to think raising taxes in a recession is never a good idea. However, this bill is probably not as bad as some on the right would have you believe.  It may not do much good, but probably not a lot of harm either. 

I have read the editorials and news accounts of the bill and watched the talk shows. Actually understanding the economic impact of the bill would take more time than I could give it and is probably above my paygrade anyway. Since I certainly do not trust the Tucker Carlson's of the world and do not trust the woke partisan mainstream media to tell me the truth, I need guidance from some trusted source. 

One source I have trusted is The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.  I have considered them "conservative," but that is because it seems to me that most people that actually understand economics are conservative.  Over the years The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has advocated for many policies favored by conservatives. The organization has advocated social security reform and has been a major voice advocating deficit reduction. They have opposed student loan forgiveness proposals. They have also been a major voice in alerting the public and Congress about the pending insolvency of many of the trust funds, such as the Highway Trust Fund to be insolvent by 2027 and the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund insolvent in 2028.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is truly non-partisan. It has some prominent Democrats who were founders and currently serve on its board and some steller Republicans. The current co-chair is Mitch Daniels, former governor of Indiana, and who served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President George W. Bush.  It has some of the most credentialed economists in the country servings as researchers and analysts. 

Here is the recent press release from CFRFB.

IRA Will Help Fed Fight Inflation

AUG 1, 2022 - A recent Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) study has been used by opponents to claim the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) would increase rather than reduce inflation. In reality, the study finds the legislation would have essentially no effect on inflation in the near term and would reduce inflation modestly over time. We believe the actual deflationary effects of the bill will be more significant on both fronts for several reasons. Specifically, the IRA’s deficit reduction is likely to be higher than estimated by PWBM, accompanying regulatory and permitting reforms will help reduce inflationary pressures, and the microeconomic effects of the bill – by lowering observed prices for households and businesses – will likely help combat persistent inflation.

Ultimately, we expect the IRA to very modestly reduce inflationary pressures in the near term while lowering the risk of persistent inflation over time and thus make it easier for the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation without causing a recession. Policymakers should follow the IRA with further inflation-reducing actions and should especially avoid policies that would worsen inflation and make the Federal Reserve’s job harder.

.... However, the effects are likely to be modest, especially in the near term. The IRA can assist the Federal Reserve in fighting inflation by making its job easier, but it will by no means replace the need for action from the Fed. To further support the Fed's efforts, lawmakers should build on the IRA with further deficit-reducing and health-care-cost-lowering legislation and actions. And they should especially avoid measures that would worsen inflation, such as extending the student debt repayment pause.

The IRA isn’t going to fix inflation on its own, but having fiscal and monetary policy row in the same direction is an important step forward. (continue reading)

Sounds boring right? Policy is often boring. I don't understand the "Penn Wharton Budget Model' but there are people who do and I trust them more than TV pundits screaming "Socialism!" 

 If I were in Congress I would not buck the party and vote for IRA because despite the recommendation of CFRFB there are other responsible voices persuading me it is not a wise move. But every policy decision is not black and white.  There are a lot of grays. Every vote is not the good guys on one side and the bad guys on the other.  Sometimes one is not 100% certain of one's position but only 51% certain of one's position. Sometimes if people would talk to one another rather than scream at one another they might end up with better solutions. One should be able to disagree without being disagreeable.  Thinking rather than just emoting is a virtue. Compromise and bi-partisan should not be dirty words. One should strive for a little courtesy, modesty, and dare I say, "moderation."  

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 Nashville unlikely to host Republican National Convention after council quashes bill

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Tuesday, August 02, 2022

I am supporting Beth Harwell for the Republican nominee for the 5th Congressional district.


Beth has called Tennessee home since moving to Nashville to attend Lipscomb University for college. Following graduation, she moved on to Vanderbilt University for her PhD. Beth currently serves as a Distinguished Visiting Professor at Middle Tennessee State University. After having fallen in love with Nashville and her husband, Sam, Beth started her own family, raising three children: Allie, Sam, and Tucker.

She began as an assistant professor of political science at Belmont University in 1986, but because of her love for service and her community, Beth made the decision to run for the 56th legislative district. While she lost her first run, she came back again two years later to win the seat.

In her time as the State Representative of the 56th District, Beth worked her way up from the Chairwoman of the House Commerce Committee to House Republican Caucus Whip, eventually becoming the first woman to serve as Speaker of the House in Tennessee and the entire Southeast.

Under her leadership, Tennessee cut more taxes in her eight-year tenure than any other time in Tennessee history including eliminating the Hall Income Tax, repealing the Death Tax, and reducing the state sales tax on food. She also led the fight to reform the state pension program which brought Tennessee into the Top 5 states to fund state pensions.

Beth has impacted Tennessee’s education system in numerous ways, always maintaining a legislative focus on innovative education policy. In 2009, she passed landmark education reform legislation by putting school choice first so that families all over the state could make the best decisions for the child’s education. In addition, she pushed passage of legislation to direct additional funds for improvement of training for daycare workers.

In 2019, Beth was appointed by President Donald Trump to serve on the board of the Tennessee Valley Authority, which covers Tennessee and surrounding states, it is a federally owned electric utility corporation.

Beth served as chair of the state Republican Party from 2001 to 2004. During that time, she was instrumental in the Republicans taking control of the State Senate for the first time in 105 years.

To donate or learn more about Beth Harwell, follow this link

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Beth Harwell endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police!

From Beth Harwell:


Big news. Our campaign was just endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police!

That’s right. Beth backs the blue 100% and that’s why local law enforcement is supporting Beth in the race for Tennessee’s 5th district!

We all know the radical left wants to defund our police departments and make crime run rampant in our communities. What a horrible idea!

Thankfully conservatives like Beth Harwell will make funding our police officers a priority in Congress. Law and Order is a top issue for our campaign which is why Beth released her “Back the Blue” plan last month.


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Nashville GOP counters with $10K toward school board candidates

By Vivian Jonesm, Main Street Nashville, Aug 1, 2022 - Davidson County’s first-ever partisan school board races have become even more heated with an infusion of $10,000 in spending from the Davidson County Republican Party. .. two Republicans running for school board: Kelli Phillips, ... in District 4, and Todd Pembroke, running in District 2.... Brian Horowitz, who is running for general sessions judge, (link)

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Nancy Pelosi Takes a Stand. There is an admirable consistency to Nancy’s Pelosi’s long opposition to the communist Chinese regime.

by David French, The Dispatch, Aug. 2, 2022 - There is an admirable consistency to Nancy’s Pelosi’s long opposition to the communist Chinese regime. Thirty-one years ago Pelosi stood alongside representatives Ben Jones and John Miller in the heart of Tiananmen Square and unfurled a banner that read, “To those who died for Democracy in China.” Police responded immediately, “roughing up” journalists who covered the moment and chasing Pelosi and her colleagues out of the square.

She has confronted Chinese leaders directly about the plight of political prisoners. She has opposed Chinese efforts to host the Olympic Games. She has taken House members to Tibet. And today she became the highest-ranking U.S. politician to visit Taiwan since then-Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich visited in 1997. And she did it in spite of explicit Chinese threats against her flight, in spite of explicit Chinese warnings of military escalation, and in spite of administration misgivings. 

We are witnessing an important moment, for important reasons that go beyond Pelosi’s visit. (read more)

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Trump rips Pelosi over trip to Taiwan: ‘Always causing trouble’

by Callie Patteson,  New York Post, August 2, 2022 - Breaking from dozens of his fellow Republicans, former President Donald Trump criticized House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Tuesday for her decision to visit Taiwan as China threatened a military response.

“Why is Crazy Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. 

“Always causing trouble. Nothing she does turns out well (Two failed Impeachments, loss of House, etc.). WATCH!” he added. 

Pelosi and five other Democratic members of Congress landed in Taipei on Tuesday evening local time, making her the highest-ranking US elected official to travel to Taiwan since then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich did the same in 1997. (read more)

Rod's Comment: Just when I think my contempt for Donald Trump can not grow any bigger, he opens his mouth and it does. I have utter contempt for the man. I was somewhat excusing his actions as the actions of a delusional egomaniac.  That may have been too kind, he may be evil.

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Gingrich analyzes likely Pelosi Taiwan stop; potential CCP fallout. Expresses his support.

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McConnell Approves Of Pelosi's Taiwan Visit: 'I Think She Did The Right Thing'

Rod's Comment: I wholeheartedly agree. I am proud of her for not backing down.  She did the right thing. She should have gone.  I am also proud of Mitch McConnell for supporting her and Senator Roy Blunt and the other Republicans who have spoken out expressing their support.  We should always put our country above petty politics. When a Democrat does the right thing, we should support them.  Some things are more important than partisan politics. 

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