Liberation Day Was One Year Ago: Did the President’s Tariff Promises Happen?

by Erica York, Emily Kraschel, The Tax Foundation, published March 30, 2026 - A year ago on April 2, President Trump charted a new course for US trade, calling it “Liberation Day.” The president said his idea was simple: the US would charge the same tariffs as our trading partners. With this new regime in place, Trump made a host of promises:

1. These tariffs would mark the day “American industry was reborn.”
2. They would “make Americans wealthy.”
3. Reciprocal tariffs would “bring in trillions and trillions of dollars to pay down America’s debt.”
4. “Jobs and factories,” he claimed, “will come roaring back.”
5. The new production enabled by the tariffs would “lower prices for consumers.”

At the height of the trade war—including the “Liberation Day” and other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), plus sector-specific tariffs imposed under Section 232 authorities—the tariff rates were the highest since 1911, constituting a $3.2 trillion tax hike over a decade.

One year later, the evidence shows the tariffs were not reciprocal, did not generate the promised investment boom, raised less revenue than projected, and contributed to higher prices.

Were the Tariffs Reciprocal?

Recalling how the Liberation Day tariffs were calculated and imposed under IEEPA shows they were not reciprocal.

While the president said his idea was simple—apply the same tariffs to trade partners that they apply to us—the tariffs actually imposed were a far stretch from that. They were not based on observed foreign trade barriers or tariff schedules. Instead, the United States Trade Representative’s office converted each country’s bilateral goods trade balance into a synthetic tariff rate with a 10 percent minimum. Because bilateral goods trade balances do not measure trade barriers, the resulting tariffs had no relationship with other countries’ trade barriers.

And those tariffs changed many, many times between the April 2 announcement and February 2026, when the Supreme Court ruled the authority under which Trump imposed them did not authorize tariffs.

The first major change came just days after the Liberation Day speech in a back-and-forth escalation with China that took the US tariff rate to 125 percent for a month while the country-specific rates on other trading partners were delayed. During that period, the US applied tariff rate reached 21.5 percent under the combination of the IEEPA tariffs (baseline tariffs and higher country-specific tariffs) and Section 232 sector-specific tariffs.

In the months that followed, US tariff policy changed more than 50 times, spanning rate increases, rate decreases, new product exemptions, and new product inclusions. After multiple sets of exemptions, by the end of 2025, the IEEPA tariffs affected just 42 percent of US imports, and the applied tariff rate had fallen from its high of 21.5 percent to 13.6 percent before the Supreme Court ruling. Rather than ask whether the predictions made when tariffs were at their peak levels came to pass, the relevant question is whether the tariffs, as they were actually imposed, achieved the administration’s stated goals.

US Tariffs Changed More Than 50 Times Under Trump, Peaking at 21.5%

Did Investment and Jobs Pour into the United States?

The data does not support claims of a large investment surge. During his Liberation Day remarks, President Trump claimed the US would see a rebirth of industries, with jobs and investment pouring into the United States. He claimed the US had already seen $6 trillion of investment and would see even more by year’s end. Throughout the year, he has claimed up to $18 trillion in new foreign investment into the United States.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States has seen no such dramatic spikes. In 2025, FDI totaled $288.4 billion—more than an order of magnitude smaller than President Trump’s claims. Total FDI in 2025 was below the prior 10 years’ average of $320.7 billion and lower than the annual totals in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 ($405.5 billion, $338.4 billion, $297.4 billion, and $292.3 billion, respectively).

While various firms and countries have pledged, sometimes vaguely, to increase US investment, so far, those investments have not shown up in broad macroeconomic statistics. Aggregate FDI flows have remained within a typical range rather than exhibiting a sharp increase.

Neither has employment in the manufacturing sector reversed the trend. Manufacturing employment has continued to decline after Liberation Day, declining by 89,000 jobs between April 2025 and February 2026. The decline is broadly consistent with pre-existing trends.

The volatility in both rates and coverage created significant policy uncertainty, which likely weighed on investment and hiring decisions.

Foreign Direct Investment Has Not Spiked as Trump Claimed

Did the Tariffs Make the Federal Government Wealthier?

Tariffs increased federal revenue, but fell far short of the Trump administration’s claims and did not pay down the national debt.

President Trump asserted that in the 1880s, when tariffs were high, the US was proportionately the wealthiest it had ever been: at that time, the federal government ran large budget surpluses because taxes generated more revenue for the government than it spent. President Trump often refers to the Congressional Commissions of that day, which were tasked with addressing the budgetary surpluses. They did so by increasing government spending, which proved unpopular in the 1890s.

While tariffs were the main source of federal revenue then, total spending was an order of magnitude lower, averaging under 3 percent of GDP rather than roughly 23 percent of GDP in 2025. The taxes that funded the federal government of the 1880s mathematically cannot raise enough revenue to fund the federal government today.

President Trump predicted tariffs would “direct hundreds of billions of dollars and even trillions of dollars into our Treasury to strengthen our economy and pay down debt.” And his advisors, such as Peter Navarro, estimated that the new tariffs would bring in $600 billion a year.

The Liberation Day tariffs undoubtedly raised taxes for the US Treasury—but far short of what the Trump administration predicted. Before the Court ruled against the IEEPA tariffs in February, they generated approximately $166 billion in tariff payments. Altogether, tariffs brought in $264 billion in customs duties from January through December 2025, accounting for 4.9 percent of total tax receipts for the calendar year. The net revenue generated by the tariffs is less, because tariffs mechanically reduce how much revenue is raised by income and payroll taxes. Though the tariffs increased tax revenues while they were in effect, federal debt has continued to grow under President Trump.

Did Tariffs Affect Prices and Employment?

Tariffs raised prices and weighed on economic activity, contrary to claims that they would be paid by foreign countries, lower consumer costs, and boost economic activity.

President Trump and his advisors have repeatedly asserted that Americans would not have to pay the tariffs, and the president even suggested that under the tariffs, “more production at home will mean stronger competition and lower prices for consumers.”

Tariffs are taxes on imports legally paid by the importer, and economically paid by a combination of imports, downstream businesses, final consumers, and foreign sellers. By raising the cost of imported goods, tariffs increase relative prices and can also lead domestic producers to raise prices in response. Tariffs can also affect employment in the short run as firms may lay off workers (or slow hiring) to hold employment costs (including the new taxes) fixed.  

While research is still ongoing into both the price and employment effects of the tariffs in 2025, the findings so far are contrary to President Trump’s claims. The new tariffs have passed through to the US economy, lifting prices for importers and retail consumers and weighing down hiring.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has attributed much of the remaining inflation to tariffs, explaining in a recent press conference: “These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs.”

Research from the Pricing Lab at Harvard estimates that through October 2025, tariff pass-through to retail prices reached 24 percent, contributing a cumulative 0.76 percentage points to Consumer Price Index inflation. Prices for imported goods and for domestic substitutes have both risen. Initial research from the Kansas City Fed suggests (albeit with high levels of uncertainty) that tariffs likely reduced employment growth in 2025.

Additional research from the Federal Reserve found that rather than a sudden, one-time price hike after the tariffs were imposed, price pressure developed gradually and retailers slowly adjusted prices over time. The same uncertainty that held back investment and hiring may have also been an important factor limiting retail-level pass-through in 2025.

Conclusion

One year after Liberation Day, the evidence does not support the administration’s central claims about how tariffs were supposed to benefit the American economy. The tariffs were not reciprocal, did not produce a surge in investment or manufacturing employment, generated less revenue than projected, did not pay down the national debt, and contributed to higher prices and weaker economic activity. As policymakers consider future tariff actions under alternative authorities, these outcomes provide important context for evaluating the likely economic effects of continued trade restrictions.

Top Stories

Nashville anchored Tennessee's population growth in 2025

by Rod Williams, April 1, 2026- Axios Nashville reports that Davidson County remained the fastest-growing county in Tennessee in 2005, according to new U. S. Census data. This growth represents a 1.3% increase year over year.  This growth was powered primarily by domestic migration. However, that level of domestic migration is declining, while at the same time, there has been a sharp decrease in international migration attributed to President Trump's crackdown on immigration. Davidson County had a population boost of 14,102 from international migration in 2024. In 2025, that number fell 58%, to 5,887.

Davidson County added nearly 9,300 new residents in 2025, according to the Census numbers. That's the highest raw total among all of Tennessee's 95 counties by a solid margin.  The surrounding suburban counties have been growing at an even higher rate for years.  Rutherford, Wilson, Williamson and Sumner counties were all in the state's top 10 for population growth from 2024 to 2025.

The Axios article says that seemingly every major challenge — and opportunity — facing Nashville right now traces back to its propulsive growth: skyrocketing home prices, traffic snarls, eye-popping tax bills, transformative construction projects, innovation, new corporations and big-ticket jobs.

I am gung-ho for Nashville and love this city and would not want to live anywhere else. However, I am actually pleased to see Nashville's growth slow. I wish it had slowed about twenty years ago. I liked Nashville better when you could go someplace and find a parking space on the street and when you did not have to use a QC code and your cell phone to park. 

I know Nashville has a vibrancy that many cities lack, and the growth has brought a slew of fine dining establishments. Nashville is a top-tier culinary destination, boasting several Michelin-starred restaurants. I will probably never eat in one of them. However, part of this growth has brought about a slew of ethnic restaurants. One has a choice of Pho places, sushi restaurants, Thai, Kurdish and Turkish, Ethiopian, Persian, Greek, lots of Mexican, other Latin American restaurants, and various others. It you are adventurous, there are some real dining bargains to be had.   I like that. The cultural diversity has made Nashville more interesting, also. I enjoy the Festival of Cultures, Cinco de Mayo events, Chinese New Year events, St. Patrick's Day parade, and all of the neighborhood festivals. Without growth, we would not have all of this. 

Nashville has attracted a lot of high-income jobs. However, it seems that those jobs are most often filled by new people who follow the jobs to Nashville. I am not sure those high-paying jobs helped many existing Nashvillians. Of course, all of these people moving here and earning the big bucks does generate economic growth. People are building houses, cleaning houses, working in the many restaurants, and providing all of the other services that those making the big bucks need. But it seems the highest wage earners are people who moved to Nashville and not existing Nashvillians.

Along with the new high-paying jobs came more expensive housing, leaving many Nashvillians unable to afford to live here. It is simple economics. When you have a young couple, each earning a six-figure income, they can pay more for a home and that bids up the price of all homes.

Metro Nashville Davidson County Public School Enrollment

I find it interesting that as Nashville has been growing at a rate of about 1.3% per year, our student enrollment in public schools has been dropping. That could be because the people moving to Nashville are young, childless couples, or because those who can afford to send their children to private schools do so, or a combination of factors, but I find that interesting and think it is worthy of research. I have not done the research, but I would suspect that young families are moving to the suburban counties where schools are better, there is less crime, and housing is a little less expensive, and one can have a yard. Nashville gets the hip, affluent, childish couples and single adults; the suburbs get the families.  

Maybe it is just an impression and not based on data, but I have a feeling that many of those moving to Nashville are not forming deep connections to our city. I suspect they cast votes for Democrats just because that is what hip people do, but don't really care that much about how the city is governed. They don't really care about the quality of our schools and don't mind paying higher taxes, because they can afford it. I suspect they do not feel a deep connection to the city. I think many of the newcommers find things like stock car racing, flea markets, and meat-and-three dinners an embarrassment. The new Nashville is hip and prefers expensive coffee shops and soccer to flea markets and meat and three diners.

While Nashville has problems, it is not as crime-ridden and dysfunctional as many other Democrat led cites, but it continues to become less affordable, and the tax burden continues to rise. Maybe I am just an old man yearning for the good old days, but I don't think so. I think there is something to be said for slow and steady, familiarity, and modest, adaptable change, preserving the personality of a community, and being able to find a place to park. I wish we had pulled up the drawbridge about twenty years ago. Slowing growth is fine with me. 

Top Stories

Ogles meets with sanctioned Russian State Duma delegation in DC

 Leading the delegation is Vyacheslav Nikonov, grandson of Stalin’s Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, who drew lines in the 1939 pact that divided Eastern Europe between Nazi Germany and the USSR.

by Vivian Jones, The Tennessean, March 27, 2026- U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles was among the five members of Congress organized by U.S. Rep Anna Paulina Luna who met with a delegation of sanctioned Russian State Duma officials visiting Washington on March 26.

The meeting came despite sanctions imposed by Washington in light of Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

... “We will continue to foster this dialogue and push for peace in support of this admins push for peace, as well as economic opportunity,” Ogles wrote.

Nikonov has described Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine as “truly a holy war” and “a metaphysical clash between the forces of good and evil.” (link)

Top Stories

What I Saw at the Revolution: No Kings, March 28, 2026

 

by Rod Williams, March 28, 2026- I almost talked myself out of going to the "No Kings" rally today. I

just wasn't feeling it. I have attended all three previous big anti-Trump rallies that have taken place here in Nashville. The first one was also organized by Indivisible also, but they had not yet adopted the "No Kings" label, and it was called "Hands Off Our Democracy" and was held in Centennial Park at Musicians Corner back in April 2025. I then attended the one on the Bi-Centennial Mall in June 2025, and the most recent one before today's, held on the big hill on the North side of the Capitol in October 2025. 

I don't know why I was not feeling the desire to do today's rally. I guess it is partly been-there-done-that, and maybe a feeling that it is kind of pointless. I am not sure how much impact these really have. When I attended the prior rallies, I felt a passion for showing my displeasure at Trump's authoritarianism, and things are much worse now. When I attended the other three anti-Trump rallies, Trump's paramilitary thugs had not murdered citizens on the streets of our cities yet, and yet my passion to show my displeasure at Trump was greater then than now. Attending those rallies felt cathartic. I didn't feel that need today. I guess I am getting numb or used to what is happening. 

Maybe one reason I almost did not attend is that my family, who are to my left politically, skipped this rally. If those who have always supported liberal causes are not making this a priority, why should I? I did end up attending, however, reasoning that a smaller turnout will send a signal that the public is just accepting Trump's authoritarianism and the wind is out of the sails of the opposition. I attended more out of a sense that I should than a desire or need. 

Before attending my first anti-Trump rally, I was apprehensive about rallying with a bunch of leftists. I feared the vibe would be left-wing with displays of anti-Americanism. It was not. Sure, there were some signs I disagreed with supporting liberal causes, but for the most part, the messaging was pro-democracy and pro-decency. I did not feel terribly out of place.

Today's vibe was much different than the other three events. Upon arriving at the site, a pro-trans chant was taking place. Now, I am pretty tolerant of deviancy as long as it is consensual and doesn't involve children. If Trump's paramilitary force was actually picking up and imprisoning trans people without due process, I might would join the chant, but that is not the case, and I did not plan to attend a pro-trans event.

The next thing that grabbed my attention was a large Communist banner with hammer and sickle. There were also some Democratic Socialists of America banners and Antifa Banners.  Now, I recognize that any mass political movement is going to have some oddballs and fringe people. However, I recall my Tea Party days and other political events I have attended.  If at any of those events, a group would have had a swastika banner, they would have been denounced from the stage and would have been asked to leave. I accept that a mass political movement has to be "big tent," but I don't want to be in a tent big enough for Nazis or Communists. 

The speeches from the stage were not just a renunciation of Trump's authoritarianism and corruption but calls for universal health care and denunciation of income inequality and rich people, and corporations, and other messages that I do not agree with. One of the speeches was a partisan campaign speech by Jerri Green, Democratic Party candidate for Governor. I don't know if the speeches at the other rallies were as partisan liberal as these or not. At the other three rallies, they had terrible sound systems with small speakers, and I really could not hear the speeches. At today's rally, there were nice large speakers and one could hear clearly. It would have been better if I could not have heard the speeches. 

It was impossible for me to judge the size of the crowd. The event was held in the amphitheater bowl in the park formerly known as Cumberland, on the east side of the river between the Korean Veterans Blvd. bridge and the John Seigenthaler Pedestrian Bridge. The site is not that large and people were not packed in tight, but there were a lot of people gathered on the pedestrian bridge and in the park area outside of the amphitheater. I don't know, but I would estimate the crowd was smaller than the last two rallies. 

I saw several Gadsen flags and I think a Gadsen Flag is appropriate to protest
Trump's authoritarianism. I talked to this couple. They were pretty non-political and
had never before attended a protest. 

After the speeches and group chants ended, the crowd was to march from the park formerly known as Cumberland, across the pedestrian bridge up Third Ave. to the Public Square Park in front of the courthouse. I am unsure if there were to be more rally activity at the end of the march or if the crowd was simply to disband once it reached the courthouse park. 

I thought maybe she was at the wrong protest and was supposed to 
be on lower Broadway, but there was a logic to her sign, but I can't
explain it. 

I almost called it a day, when the march began. I will not want to take part in activity that blocks streets or stops traffic, and I did not know what the plan was. Also, some were chanting "Whose Streets?" - "Our Streets!" I did go however; I joined the tail end of the march so I could abort if they were illegally blocking traffic. As it turns out, they were not taking the streets. The police had the street blocked off to accommodate the marchers. 

I followed the crowd as far as Broadway, then went up Broadway to A.J's, had one beer, listened to two good country songs by the band, then called it a day. I think I may have attended my last "No Kings" rally. 

?

Top Stories

Republican Sen. Todd Gardenhire and Tennessee Firearms Association Clash After Gardenhire Kills Ten Controversial Bills

by Sam Stockard, Tennessee Outlook, March 27, 2026 - A day after killing ten bills, including a move that would let people carry guns just about anywhere, Republican Sen. Todd Gardenhire found himself in the crosshairs of the Tennessee Firearms Association. He shot back.

Gardenhire, a veteran Chattanooga lawmaker who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee, said the firearms group hadn’t “darkened” his door for years yet continued to bash him. They also hammered nearly every other Republican in the state for opposing the end of Tennessee’s law against carrying a weapon with “intent to go armed,” a situation in which carrying the gun has no designated purpose such as hunting.

“They’re not reasonable. They’re raising money for their own pocket and paying themselves,” Gardenhire told the Lookout. “I don’t pay any attention to what they say. They have a vested interest in getting their supporters riled up to send them money. Follow the money.”

The gun group sent email letters this week slamming the state’s Republican leaders for failing to use their supermajority to “defend the Constitution” and the rights of Tennesseans to carry weapons, including long guns, along streets, near schools, in parks, pretty much everywhere.

“Instead, despite years of campaign promises and public assurances of unwavering support for the Second Amendment and the federal and state constitutions, these leaders and the Republican supermajority purposefully have left in place statutes that intentionally criminalize the very conduct and activities that the state and federal constitutions not only protect but which they also declare ‘shall not be infringed,’ by the government including its officials,” the letter says.

It points out a three-judge panel in Hughes v. Lee found the state’s “intent to go armed” and gun prohibitions in parks to be unconstitutional, void and unenforceable. Gov. Bill Lee and Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti are appealing the ruling. 

The appeal and the refusal to pass bills this year repealing the law “are the actions of government tyranny choosing to violate your rights and their oaths.”

The letter goes on to blast Gardenhire for pushing off a spate of bills until 2027 without alerting committee members, none of whom objected. One of those would have ended recognition of same-sex marriages.

Tennessee Firearms Association Executive Director John Harris wraps up the letter by asking people to consider joining the organization and making charitable contributions. By the way, he also encourages people to defeat the reelection efforts of lawmakers such as Gardenhire.

If that’s the case, Gardenhire said they better be prepared to “dig a trench and get into their little foxholes.”

“I try to look at these things on a reasonable basis. I don’t like somebody being able to carry a shotgun into a bank or around a schoolhouse or in a hospital or where there’s a divorce going on somewhere and everybody’s mad at each other,” he said. “That’s just common sense, and these people don’t use common sense.”

He predicted he would serve six more years. If that’s the case, someone else will be writing his retirement story.

#

Also see, The Disgruntled Republican in Nashville: Ten Bad Bills Bite the Dust in the Senate Judiciary Committee

Top Stories

"No Kings" Protest, Sat. March 28, 2026

 Time

Saturday, March 28
10am – 1pm CDT

Location

592 S 1st St
Nashville, TN 37213
Map

Top Stories

Trump's Signature to be Added to U.S. Dollars

by Rod Williams, March 27, 2026- Donald Trump does some very awful things, some unconstitutional things, cruel things, infuriating things, selfish things, offensive things, corrupt things, and stupid things. And then, there are some things he does that are so petty and cringe-worthy, so illustrative of a person with a super-inflated ego that they are embarrassing and downright funny

This one didn't make me mad; it amused me. This one is right up there with renaming the Kennedy Center after himself, accepting someone else's peace prize, or naming a navy battleship after himself, or having the U. S. mint produce a commemorative gold coin with Trump's image on it, or wanting to build a big Trump Arch in Washington. 

Trump’s signature is to be added to U.S. dollars, a first for a sitting president.  The only thing that makes this not simply amusing is that this is the kind of thing dictators do all over the world and at all times. This is the kind of thing you expect from a Kim Jong Un, not the president of a democracy.

Here is the press release from the Treasury Department:

Treasury Announces President Donald J. Trump’s Signature to Appear on Future U.S. Paper Currency

March 26, 2026

WASHINGTON – In honor of the 250th anniversary of the United States of America, President Donald J. Trump’s signature will appear on future U.S. paper currency along with the Secretary of the Treasury, marking the first time in history for a sitting president.

“Under President Trump’s leadership, we are on a path toward unprecedented economic growth, lasting dollar dominance, and fiscal strength and stability,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. “There is no more powerful way to recognize the historic achievements of our great country and President Donald J. Trump than U.S dollar bills bearing his name, and it is only appropriate that this historic currency be issued at the Semiquincentennial.”

“As the 250th anniversary of our great nation approaches, American currency will continue to stand as a symbol of prosperity, strength, and the unshakable spirit of the American people under President Trump’s leadership,” said Treasurer Brandon Beach. “The President’s mark on history as the architect of America’s Golden Age economic revival is undeniable. Printing his signature on the American currency is not only appropriate, but also well deserved.”

Wow! What an ego! What a brat! What a clown!  

Top Stories

Ten Bad Bills Bite the Dust in the Senate Judiciary Committee

Sen. Todd Gardenhire

by Rod Williams, March 26, 2026- In every session of the State legislature, there are a bunch of silly, pandering, or performative pieces of legislation introduced. Thankfully, most never become law.

Sometimes I think a legislator introduces a bill in response to something a constituent says to him, and he thinks it sounds like a good idea at the time, but when the bill is researched, it is discovered that what the legislator would like to accomplish has a lot of consequences the legislator did not foresee, or would be much more costly than foreseen or would be unconstitutional. In that case, the bill is often killed in Committee.

I imagine that is the case with the bill to ban Pride flags in State public buildings. If this had been restricted to classrooms, the bill might have made sense, but it applied to all buildings and workspaces. When applied to college dorms, this could violate First Amendment protections. And, if one cannot have a small Pride flag in one's work cubicle, can one have a UT pendant in one's work cubicle?

In a single procedural move on Monday, the Tennessee Senate Judiciary Committee effectively killed 10 controversial bills by deferring them to February 2027. Because the 2027 date falls within a new legislative term, these bills cannot be carried over and must be reintroduced from scratch to move forward. 

The maneuver to kill these ten bills was led by Committee Chairman Todd Gardenhire (R-Chattanooga). The ten bills included a couple related to gay rights. SB1745 sponsored by Senator Janice Bowling and in the House by Representative Gino Bulso said that a law of this state that prohibits sex discrimination must not be construed to prohibit

• Discrimination against a person for being homosexual or transgender.
• Discrimination on account of or because of sexual orientation, sexual behavior, gender identity, or gender non-conforming behavior.
• The establishment or enforcement of sex-segregated restrooms, locker rooms, shower facilities, changing areas, dormitories, or sports teams.
• The establishment or enforcement of sex-specific dress or grooming codes.
• Discrimination on account of or because of any conduct related to abortion.

Wow! That is pretty extreme. This would likely have been found unconstitutional and cost the State a lot of money defending it in Court. It is now dead!

SB 1746 also by Senator Rollings and Representative Bulso said that private citizens and organizations are not bound by the Fourteenth Amendment or the Supreme Court’s decision in Obergefell v. Hodges to recognize a marriage between individuals of the same sex and it would have prohibited the board of professional responsibility from disciplining or sanctioning an attorney for declining to officiate a marriage between two persons of the same sex. That was bound to be costly to defend and indefensible in Court. 

There were seven bills to loosen gun regulations in Tennessee or expand the legal use of deadly force. I have not looked at each of them, but if interested, the bill numbers are SB 2467, SB 1227, SB 824, SB 2478, SB 993, SB 1851, and SB 1405. They are all now dead.

As long as we have people like Senator Rollings and Rep. Bulso in the State legislature, we can be thankful for people like Senator Todd Gardenhire, who keeps the Legislature from passing costly, embarrassing, and stupid bills. 

Top Stories

Nashville Growth Still Driven By Immigration

From Davis Hunt, The Pamphleteer, March 26, 2026 - The US Census Bureau released new data last night. The headline grabber is that population growth slowed due to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement efforts. In short, fewer immigrants are coming into the country.

The decline hit urban areas the hardest. Every single Metro area in the country saw net immigration fall. In most areas, it fell over 50 percent. In Nashville, it fell by 33 percent, but the lion’s share of the city’s growth continues to come from immigrants.

Nashville gained an additional 9,281 residents between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 driven entirely by births and immigration to the city. Immigrants accounted for 63 percent of that growth. The year prior, they accounted for 84 percent of the city's growth.

The pattern of American citizens leaving Davidson County and immigrants moving in is still the best way to frame the city’s growth. Nashville lost 925 citizens last year and 2,741 the year before, a pattern that’s held for over ten years now.

Nashville inherits the bulk of the state’s immigrants. In total 17,990 people moved into the state from another country, 33 percent of whom moved to Davidson County and 20 percent of whom moved to another county in the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area which includes surrounding counties.

As American citizens continued to leave the city proper, 16,967 moved into the MSA. Like everywhere else, immigration to the MSA fell compared to last year, but domestic migration actually increased by 15 percent showing the enduring appeal of the ring counties.

Top Stories

 

Top Stories

Vanderbilt Poll: Nashvillians Less Optimistic About the City, Mayor O’Connell Approval Drops

• More Nashvillians (56 percent) think the city is on the wrong track than just a year ago (42 percent), which may reflect reactions to the recent ice storm, which affected 76 percent of the respondents.   
• Approval for Mayor Freddie O’Connell drops from 67 percent in 2025 to 54 percent in 2026, which also can be attributed, in part, to the impact of January’s ice storm. The same pattern holds for public’s approval of Metro Council.   
• The public’s approval of NES stands at 39 percent. 
• Nashvillians view affordable housing as their top and growing priority (73 percent), and they don’t think neighborhoods are being prioritized by the city (71 percent).  

“By a 2-to-1 margin, residents feel that recent changes in Nashville have not been good for the city—from traffic concerns to the pace of population growth,” 

... Nearly half (48 percent) said recent changes have made their day-to-day lives worse, compared with only 24 percent. 

A vast majority (71 percent) of residents surveyed believe the city government spends too little time addressing problems in neighborhoods generally.   who said they have made it better. 

A majority (79 percent) of residents believe Nashville’s population is growing too quickly—a pattern that has been true for more than five years. These numbers are congruent with “heavy traffic to and from downtown” emerging as the top reason (cited by 32 percent) that Nashville residents avoid the city’s center.  

...there is limited support for bringing NASCAR to the racetrack. Twenty-six percent are in favor of the move, but 36 percent call for eliminating the racetrack.  

For more on the Vanderbilt survey, follow this link. 

Top Stories

Educators Oppose School Immigration Data Bill

by Kim Jarrett, The Center Square, March 25, 2026-  A group of educators says they oppose a bill that would require Tennessee schools to collect data on students' immigration status.

House Bill 793 was amended from its Senate version, which would have allowed school districts to charge tuition to students not legally in the country.

The bill could have put the state's $1.1 billion federal allocation from the Senate at risk if it were found to violate a 1982 U.S. Supreme Court decision establishing the right to education for all students, regardless of immigration status, according to the bill's fiscal note.

House Majority Leader William Lamberth, R-Portland, said the threat of losing the federal funding led to the amendment.

"There's no way I want to bring a bill forward that would endanger $1.1 billion while we are trying to add additional funds in K-12 public education," Lamberth said previously. "If you look at the new fiscal that is on the amendment, fiscal impact 'is not significant.’"

The progressive group Tennessee Progress said more than 100 Hamilton County educators oppose the bill, originally sponsored by Hixson Republican Sen. Bo Watson. Hixson is in Hamilton County.

"Children should not carry the weight of adult policy decisions when they walk through our doors," said Dr. Jill Levine, Principal at Chattanooga High Center for Creative Arts, and vice president of the Hamilton County Principal's Association, in a statement provided by Tennessee Progress. "Our job is to protect them, teach them and support them, without conditions that could create fear or uncertainty in their daily school experience."

The Knox County Board of Education included opposition to the bill as part of its legislative agenda for the 2026 session.

The House of Representatives passed the amended bill 70-25 on Monday, with three Republicans joining Democrats in opposing it. The bill is on Thursday's Senate message calendar for consideration.

Top Stories