Democracy is more than just majority rule. Majority rule can trample one's rights also. There is an old saying that democracy is two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for dinner. I don't think that is so, if democracy is adequately understood. In addition to majority rule, democracy recognizes individual liberties and the rule of law. This week may be the week that we lose the rule of law.
Donald Trump has been moving fast and breaking things. It has been disruptive and messy and may have weakened us as a nation. However, he has not gotten by with all he has tried to do. On allowing Elon Musk to access everyone's bank account information and social security numbers he was blocked by the court. The take-it-or-leave it massive employee buy-out was slowed by the courts. The permanent shuttering of USAID has been blocked. Abolishing birthright citizenship by executive order has been blocked as well as other Trump efforts.
With Republicans in full support of Trump, there has been no legislative check on his authority and opponent of Trump's actions have turned to the courts to constrain him and so far, the actions that most likely violate the Constitution are being put on hold. So far, our democracy has held. Unfortunately, I don't see this continuing. I fear that Trump will defy the Supreme Court. When that happens, we no longer have rule of law. When that happens, we are living under an authoritarian regime.
President Trump now has several Temporary Restraining Orders preventing him from carrying out actions he has attempted. One of those is the TRO on Birthright Citizenship. It the court makes that order permanent, Donald Trump may just ignore it. If the Supreme Court rules that President Trump cannot just change the Constitution by executive order, Trump may simply order the appropriate department simply not to issue birth certificates to children born to non-citizens.
If he does that he will likely be held in contempt of court. My understanding is that normally a daily fine would be imposed until one comes into compliance. Trump will not care. Next the Court can direct the person defying the Court be arrested. Of course, the Supreme Court does not have its own police force. The US Marshals are part of the Executive Branch. President Trump will not be arrested. In this case, the thing that one would expect to happen is that the legislative branch would then move to impeach the president. I do not see that happening. Trump has a slim majority in the House but so far that have walked in lockstep loyalty to him. It takes a simple majority in the House to impeach, and the Republican majority is slim. Even if some House Republicans did vote for impeachment, in the Senate it takes two-thirds of the members voting to convict remove a president from office. I do not see Trump being impeached or removed from office.
If the Supreme Court rules against Trump and he ignores the Court and Congress does not impeach, then massive protest is all that is left to constrain Trump. Such protest could not be just the normal activist protesting. To be effective there would have to be a massive outpouring of opposition. Normal people would have to clog the streets of our cities. I don't see that happening. Sure, there will be protest here and there but not the massive protest needed to force President Trump to follow the rule of law.
For one thing, birthright citizenship is not popular. If people have an opinion about it at all the majority think it should be ended. Most people are concerned about an outcome, not how that outcome was achieved. I would be surprised if there is a lot of public outrage about Trump ignoring a Court's ruling on birthright citizenship. People will not lay down in front of tanks to preserve birthright citizenship.
Consider that if we had a Democrat president who banned semi-automatic weapons by Executive Order and then defied a Supreme Court ruling overturning that ban. I doubt a Democrat Congress would move to impeach him. I doubt there would be massive protest about the president defying the Court in that instance. People care about policy and outcomes; they don't care a lot about process.
If Trump does defy the Supreme Court in this one instance, then in the next case it will be easier to do. If the next defiance of the Court is over USAID, I don't see that generating a lot of opposition either. Foreign aid is not popular. Once he can defy the Court over one thing like birthright citizenship, then he can do it again and again. We will still have Courts and Trump defying the Court will not lead to a collapse of order. The Courts will still function much as always, but they will not be a check on the President. It may hardly be noticeable, but we will have ceased to be a functioning democracy.
To be fair and to moderate my alarmism, Trump did not defy the Court in his first term. When the Court ruled against him, he backed down. I am not taking a lot of comfort in that, however. This time Trump is much more determined and is mad and is not surrounded by institutionalist who can work to constrain his behavior.
If Trump does defy the Court as I have speculated and he gets away with it, then in the mid-term the public could deny him his legislative majority and then there could be a check on his behavior. However, I am not going to be greatly shocked if Trump engineers and declares a national emergency and delays the mid-term elections. As a candidate he said there were times when it may be necessary to suspend the Constitution. I believe he meant it when he said it. I believe that is what he really believes. If he does try to delay the mid-term election, what can we do? Sue him?
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