by Rod Williams, Dec. 26, 2025- One can be a well-informed citizen and still miss a lot these days. With Trump the occupant of the White House, more happens, and there is hardly time to focus on one alarming thing before that thing is replaced by a new something. Trump is a master at flooding the zone.
In addition to Trump's moving fast and breaking things, flooding the zone, and diverting attention, some things are just more interesting than others, and these things take up all the bandwidth. Also, there are limits to how much people want to pay attention to political news. Many may watch a program like Meet the Press and the local news and feel they are adequately informed. In normal times, they might have been.
While the capture of oil tankers and the extrajudicial murder of suspected drug smugglers and the Epstein files dominate the news, some other outrages get scant attention. One such thing is the unprecedented and masterful corruption of the Trump administration. Another is the rapidly deteriorating relations with Canada and Canada's response and the market response.
Canada has been our closest ally for decades. When America has been engaged in foreign conflicts, we could always count on Canada to be a junior partner and commit troops. Our economies are deeply intertwined and we share the world's longest unprotected border, and we listen to the same music and watch the same movies and share much of the same culture. It is almost as if the two nations were like cousins. We are seeing all of that being ripped apart. Even if Trump leaves the White House at the end of his term and even if sanity returns to trade relationships, our relationship with Canada may never be the same.
The most remarkable development is that Canada is taking steps to protect itself in the event the US invades. Concerns over potential annexation, fueled by Trump's comments about making Canada the 51st state and seeing Trump's belligerent behaviour elsewhere in the world has sparked discussions within Canada about potential defense strategies. It is hard to believe we have reached this point but Canadians are talking about guerrilla warfare tactics should the US invade.
Some of Canada’s top military strategists are working on a plan to boost the country’s armed forces. Canada is increasing its military spending and, for the first time, will meet NATO's target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense and has committed to the new target of 5 percent. Canada is also in the process of creating a civil defense force made up of as many as 300,000 volunteers. Canada has professional armed services of about 65,000 and a reserve force of about 300,000. This proposed civil defense force would be in addition to those forces.
Another development signaling the deteriorating US-Canada relationship is that it appears Canada will not buy the US Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets it had planned to buy, and instead buy the Swedish JAS-39 Gripen. For one thing, Canada is simply angry at the US for the trade wars and talk of annexing Canada. For another, Canada does not want to be reliant on the US for spare parts and upgrades if tensions continue to rise between the two nations. There are consequences to US beligenrcny, and trade wars. The US is not the only place to buy advanced fighter jets.
As the trade war continues, Canada is fighting back with embargoes and boycotts. You may have heard that Jim Beam whiskey has suspended production for a year. Canada has been boycotting American whiskey and Canadians did consume a lot of American whiskey. Expect more iconic American brands to disappear from shelves.
Trump's placing tariffs on Aluminum from Canada is hurting America and creating shortages. There is growing concern about a potential shortage of high-grade aluminum from Canada for U.S. military use. Canada supplies high-grade aluminum vital for U.S. defense needs, and the tariffs are impacting everything from aircraft to armor. Canada is finding new buyers for high-quality aluminum. If America wants to again buy high grade alumimun, the supply may not be availlable and if it is, it will demand a higher price.
The U.S. produces only a fraction of the aluminum it consumes, relying heavily on imports, primarily from Canada. While Trump's stated goal of his tariff policy is to return production to America, the US simply can't produce the aluminum we need. Factories cannot be built overnight and if they could, the US does not have the raw materials. In addition to not having the raw material and the fact that building new factories takes time, the US does not have the necessary energy to smelt aluminum. One report I saw recently said that to smelt the amount of aluminum we consume would require the energy of ten Hoover Dams. I have not verified that this is true, but aluminum production does require a lot of energy, which we do not have. While Canada is providing relief to its aluminum industry to soften the blow of the tariffs, it is successfully finding new buyers for its aluminum. The stockpile of aluminum that U. S. manufacturers hold has dropped from a three-month supply to a one-month supply. Soon we will feel the effect of Trump's policy. Even if we drop the tariffs, new aluminum will cost more.
The U. S. agriculture sector is also being hurt by Trump's tariff policy. Not only is Trump destroying the export market, making it hard to sell US exports like soybeans abroad, but Trump's policies are increasing the cost of agricultural inputs. One of those inputs with an almost inelastic demand is potash. Farmers have to have it. Organic farming is a niche boutique thing, but it can't feed the nation. Without potasium many crop yields are so low that they are not worth producing. The U.S. gets the vast majority of its potash from Canada, with Canada supplying around 80-90% of U.S. potash imports. With the tariffs in place, Canadian potash producers are cutting back on the mining and production of potash and are laying off staff. When the spring planting season rolls around, even if Trump lowers the tariff, the disruption may mean there is not enough potash available to meet our farmers' needs. The US does not have the natural deposit of potash we need. We just can't make it. While this trade war over potash is a self-inflicted wound for the US agriculture sector, it is a source of tension between our two nations.
So many of Trump's policies make no sense. For generations, we had an almost seamless border between Canada and the United States. In the winter, a lot of Canadians would get in their car and drive south to Florida to escape the harsh Canadian winter. Obviously, Trump is an economic illiterate. Otherwise, why would he want to curtail tourists visiting America? Econoically tourism acts as an export. Foreigners get something we have that they want, and we get their money. Trump is making it harder for us to take Canadians' money.
Canadian tourists are facing new hurdles visiting the U.S., including heightened border scrutiny, mandatory registration for stays of over 30 days, increased questioning about past cannabis use despite pot being legal in Canada, and requiring Canadians to allow US border officials access to their social media accounts, among other insults. While they can't drive there, many Canadians avoiding visiting the US are instead visiting the Caribbean or Europe. Canadian tourism is off by something like 37%, and polls show that number to drastically increase as Canadians say they will not be visiting the United States.
Canada is standing up to the United States in other ways. Canada just opened its first consulate in Nuuk, Greenland, to boost its Arctic presence, security, and diplomacy. In light of Trumps continuted talk of annexing Greenland, this shows defiance of the United States. All of Greenland only has a population of 65,000, and I doubt there are a lot of Canadian toursit visting Greenland, so I doubt the new consulate will be a very busy one, but this shows the U.S. that Canada stands with Greenland.
Despite some auto manufacturing moving from Canada to the U.S. to avoid Trump tariffs, the U.S.is also losing some manufacturing to Canada. Aircraft manufacturer Boeing is expanding in Canada and not in the United States. Canada has rapidly been finding new markets for its goods, expanding trade with the EU and the Pacific. While over three-quarters of Canadian exports use to head south, one might be tempted to think Canada would just accept whatever the US is dishing out, but it is not. Canada is fighting back and while the Trump tariffs have caused hardships and layoffs in Canada, it is surprising how rapidly Canada has found new places to sell its products, in many cases replacing the U.S as the primary customer.
In Trump-speak, Canada is holding some cards. We need to buy what Canada is selling as much as Canada needs to sell it. Canada is holding other cards they have not played yet. One is water. The American Southwest is in the midst of a severe long-term draught getting worse by the day. Groundwater supplies are being depleted faster than they can be replenished. The Columbia River Treaty, between the US and Canada, governs the sharing of water between the two nations. If relationships continue to deteriorate, Canada could turn off the spigot.
Canada also supplies a lot of electricity to cities like Buffalo and Rochester and Seattle and Portland and to large parts of the states of New York, Michigan, Minnesota, and much of New England. If the war on Canada continues, Canada could turn off the lights.
This story of how Canada is finding new trading partners and resisting U.S.economic aggression should have a happy ending for Canada; however, I fear what may be coming next. Despite the U.S. wounds from the trade war with Canada being self-inflicted, I could see Trump arguing that we must have Canadian potash, aluminum, rare earth minerals, water, and electricity, and arguing it is necessary to occupy Canada to secure the things we need for our survival. Unfortunately, a lot of flag-waving Trump supporters would cheer him on.
On a good day, I think this conflict with Canada will end with a whimper. Trump is old. He may die. If not dying soon, he may be weakened when the Dems retake the House, and his aggression may be checked. On a good day, I think that even if J.D. Vance succeeds Trump, we will see a relaxation of tensions with Canada. J. D. is not quite as crazy as Trump and will likely pull back from the brink and abandon any dream of annexing Canada. On a good day, while recognizing things will not return to the way they were before, I think relationships will normalize and equally beneficial trade will resume and Canadians will resume vacationing in Florida.
On a bad day, I see Americans coming home in flag-draped coffins killed by Canadian guerrillas resisting the American occupation.
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