If Republicans lose the midterm, Trump's agenda will be dead. I also suspect that a lot of Trump's corruption will be exposed, his cronies brought to justice and more than likely, Trump will be impeached. I think Trump will do everything possible, legal and illegal, to ensure he does not lose the midterm. As we know, he has attempted a coup once; stealing an election or suspending the Constitution or using force to hang onto power is not something he would have moral qualms about doing, and a lot is at stake.
Since we do not actually have national elections but instead have 50 separate state elections, stealing a "national" election is not easy, but it could be accomplished and I think Trump plans to do it. Since we have 50 different state election mechanisms, one cannot steal an election by simply taking over a national election commission, since there is no such entity. Nevertheless, I think it is possible to steal a national election. I think he has already started the process.
He has been renewing and amping up his claim that the 2020 election was stolen. I don't think this is by accident. He is laying the groundwork to steal the election. He is building support for the claim that the Federal government must take over the election process in some cities to ensure that the elections are fair.
I am also convinced that putting troops into American cities is about more than mass deportation. He wants to accustom Americans to accepting a militarised force in American cities.
This is what I see as Trump's plan to "win" the midterms:
Mid-decade redistricting: While this is not illegal, it is unprecedented and breaks tradition. Normally redistricng only occurs once every ten years following a new census. By creative jerrymandering, Republicans may pick up a couple or a few seats. This is already happening.
Intimidation: By having his ICE thugs pull people off the streets and break down doors without warrants and even retain and sometimes "disappear" people, he is giving people reason to feel intimidated. That a few people get murdered by his army of thugs is intimidating. Since those people murdered by ICE are white and American citizens, it is not just the undocumented or the brown-skinned among us who have reason to fear ICE or Border Patrol. On election day, the presence or the fear that ICE might be present at polling locations will suppress voter turnout.
Invoking the Insurrection Act: In areas where the demonstrations are large and turn violent, Trump will use that as an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and will say it is impossible to conduct elections while an insurrection is underway, and in those areas in rebellion, elections must be cancelled.
Seizing voting machines and cancelling election results: In some instances, Trump will claim voter fraud took place and it is necessary to invalidate the election or necessary to seize voting machines and have the Federal Government count the ballots.
Refusing to seat the winning candidate: Under Article I, Section 5 of the U.S. Constitution, the House of Representatives acts as the final judge of its members' elections and qualifications, allowing it to seat, exclude, or expel members. The Speaker will claim some of the elected candidates are either ineligible to serve or were fraudulently elected and the House will refuse to seat them.
I don't think I am exaggerating or unnecessarily alarmed. I know those who have drunk the Trump Kool-aid who will say I have TDS, but I think what I have outlined above is very possible, if not likely. Today Trump saying that the Federal government needs to "take over" the voting in 15 places should alarm everyone who cares about America remaining a democracy. I know some Trump loyalists don't care. Some will justify everything and anything Trump does. They will buy his argument that some parts of the country are in rebellion, and of course you can't have elections in parts of the country engaged in insurrection. Some of our fellow Americans are ready to embrace dictatorship. Many have aready but are in denial.
While I suspect what I have laid out is probably under consideration by Trump, it is not destined to succeed. Our institutions are still strong and we are still a nation of laws. For it not to succeed, people need to stand up and not be intimidated. Companies, Universities, local governments, civil society, and journalists need to be bold and fearless in standing up to Trump. There needs to be an army of lawyers ready to take Trump to court and seek injunctions. And, Democrats need to win the midterm by a margin so big that the election is too big to steal. Republicans are facing a strong headwind now and are likely to lose the midterm unless Democrats screw this up. The worst thing Democrats could do is nominate woke left-wing nut jobs like they did in the recent Tennessee 7th Congressional election. I think by nominating sane, sensible candidates, institutions and civil society being bold, and by lawyering up, Trump's attempt to steal the midterm can fail. I hope it does; a lot is on the line.
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Appreciate your perspective, Rod. I think your points are valid and we should be scared that the 2026 midterm elections might be fiddled with.
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