by Rod Williams, Nov. 1, 2026- It is hard to know what will happen between now and January 3, 2027, the day the new Congress is to be sworn in. This could be a very dangerous time for America and the world. Given how egotistical, erratic, and irrational President Trump is, it is hard to imagine Donald Trump graciously accepting mid-term defeat. I fully expect Trump to challenge the midterm results, but I believe our institutions will hold, and any attempt by Donald Trump or Mike Johnson to thwart the will of the electorate will fail. While I believe our institutions will hold my comfort level is not absolute, however. The chance of Trump subverting the election results is not zero. I don't think he will succeed, but I think he will try.
I was more concerned six months ago than now. Today, Trump's approval rating sits at 36%; six months ago, it was 40%, and in January 2026 it was 42%. That is not dropping like a rock, but it is significant. Maybe even more significant is that more and more Republicans are daring to publicly disagree with Trump or distance themselves from him. As his popularity drops, it becomes harder to convince people to rally around his attempt to subvert the election.
Also, it looks like Democrats are going to win by a comfortable margin in the House and may even take the Senate. A narrow win by Democrats would be easier to subvert than a big win.
Another reason I am less concerned now than in the past is that I thought by now Trump would have laid the groundwork to declare martial law in certain Democrat cities or states. I expected Trump to send ICE into a city that votes heavily Democratic, maybe murder another protester, resulting in widespread protest erupting, and Trump using that as an excuse to declare martial law and suspend the elections in that jurisdiction. Thankfully that hasn't happened, and it is too late for that to happen now.
Even if one believes Trump's attempt to subvert the midterm election results will fail, that does not mean that Donald Trump might not lash out in anger and do something like committing a genocidal bombing campaign against Iran, and then Iran retaliating against American allies in the region. Such an action would divert attention from Trump's efforts to steal the election. He might try to give Putin more support in his war against Ukraine, and he may do something like withdraw American forces from Europe, or maybe forcibly annex Greenland or step up his conflict with Canada. Who knows what he might do? I think we have an unhinged madman in the Oval Office, and like a wounded animal, he is more dangerous when wounded.
President Trump has good reason to fear a mid-term loss. No sitting president wants to lose control of Congress, have divided government, and see his agenda derailed. Donald Trump has more to be concerned about than failing to fulfill an agenda. Trump's massive corruption and his abuse of power as president will come to light under a Congress controlled by Democrats. Republicans have had no backbone to challenge Trump's corruption and authoritarianism; Democrats are chomping at the bit to take him on. His corrupt deals, his crypto scams, his selling of pardons, his mixing of foreign policy and business dealings, the reason behind the transfer of Elaine Maxwell to a Country Club prison, the murdering of suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers in international waters, and much, much more will be the subject of investigations. I think when the slimy details of Trump corruption and authoritarian actions get highlighted, many of even his most loyal followers will turn against him. Trump fears these congressional investigations and knows they are coming if he loses the midterms.
We have already seen how Trump has tried to put his finger on the scale of this election, starting with an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting. He pressured Republican-controlled states to do an unprecedented midterm redistricting and redraw districts to gain a Republican advantage. This probably had a limited impact, however, because Democrats fought fire with fire and redistricted their states to create more Democratic seats, and also, some of the newly created Republican seats may not be such sure shots for the Republicans as they first assumed. I am not sure redistricting gave Republicans much of an advantage.
The attempt to gain an advantage by gerrymandering is not the only attempt Trump has made to gain an electoral advantage. Trump proposed the SAVE America Act. This would have federalized election rules by establishing strict new voter ID requirements and mandatory proof-of-citizenship documentation. This would have disenfranchised a lot of voters. The bill stalled in Congress and failed to pass.
Trump also tried to impose mail-in ballot restrictions. A March 2025 Executive Order attempted to block states from counting mail-in ballots received after Election Day, even if postmarked on time. This executive order was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2026.
Trump tried to get the postal service involved in restricting mail-in ballot voting. A March 2026 Executive Order aimed to establish a system where the U.S. Postal Service would block delivery of mail-in ballots to voters not explicitly pre-certified as eligible by the federal government. This was blocked by the Supreme Court in September 2026.
These attempts failed, but Trump has hot exhausted all of his options for subverting the will of the voters. Some of these actions are ongoing and not yet resolved. The Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit seeking to pre-emptively block Alaska from certifying election results if someone other than the Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan wins the election.
The Justice Department has also taken action against the states of California and Washington, demanding they separate and hold hundreds of ballots under the unverified claim that they belong to noncitizen voters.
There is still a possibility of intimidation at polling places, using federal agents to project a chilling effect on minority and immigrant voter turnouts. The administration faced lawsuits after threatening to deploy armed federal agents, such as ICE or Border Patrol personnel to active voting sites under the guise of enforcing immigration or anti-crime measures. Federal law strictly prohibits sending armed federal forces to polling locations. but Trump only follows the law when it benefits him or he has to. On Tuesday morning we may see armed federal agents at polling places.
Another thing Trump could do, if the election margin for the Democrats is narrow, is target the election counting process. Because mail-in ballots take longer to process and more Democrats vote by mail-in ballots than Republicans, Trump-allied election officials could use this delay to claim cheating and demand that officials halt counting. Unfortunately, across the country, many election officials with integrity have been replaced by Trump loyalists.
We could also see the seizing of equipment or ballots by federal agents in heavily contested districts, effectively delaying or upending the final tally. Even if this is attempted and fails, it gives Congress an excuse to refuse to seat the winner.
Finally, Congress could simply refuse to seat the winners of the election. This is complicated and Congress cannot legally refuse to seat the new members, but there is enough ambiguity that Congress could sow chaos.
I know that for many Americans it seems preposterous to think that America could cease to be a democracy. It has never happened here. It almost happened on January 6, 2021. If not for Vice President Mike Pence, the coup attempt very well may have succeeded. While it has not happened here yet, it has happened in much of the world. Parts of Western democratic Europe had decades of authoritarian rule and periods when democracy was severely challenged. Eastern Europe, freed from the shackles of Communist tyranny, did not all become democracies. Several of these young democracies became authoritarian states ruled by old Communist Party bosses, turned corrupt oligarchs. In many countries of Latin America, nations have seesawed between periods of democratic rule and authoritarian rule. Just because it has never happened here does not mean it can't.
While I think Trump's desire to subvert our democracy will fail, I will not be surprised if the swearing-in of all members is not delayed past January 3rd as lingering challenges to the election results are adjudicated. I think Trump's attempt to subvert the election results will fail, but I will be watching with bated breath until the new Congress is sworn in.
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