There is a Valuable Campaign Training Class Being Offered by the Nashville GOP

by Rod Williams, August 5, 2026-If you ever plan to run for public office or want to be a valuable volunteer and help others win elections, I encourage you to get lots of training. Over the years, I have witnessed some great campaigns and some really bad campaigns. I have seen campaigns waste enormous amounts of money and campaigns that made every dollar count. Money is certainly important in politics, but I think of equal importance, or maybe even more importance, is working hard and smart, being well organized, and exercising good time management. Let me give you one example from my own campaign for Metro Council from years ago.

All serious candidates for office purchase a voters list of their district, and so did I. Before I knocked on my first door, however, I created an index card for each household with a registered voter. I then put colored tags on each card: one color if there was more than one voter in the household, another color if they were Republican, and a different color for frequent voters. After visiting the voter, if they told me I could put a yard sign in their yard, then the index card got an additional tag of a different color.

The advantage of this is that I did not waste time knocking on doors with no voters; I could approach the door by calling the person by name, and I could tailor my message. Also, I could make notes on the card about the household that might help me with follow-up campaign contacts.

One can now get a voter list on your cell phone that does all of this for you and more. Yet, I still see people wasting time with the door-to-door campaign. How to get the most benefit out of the voter registration rolls is one thing that one can learn in a campaign school setting. One needs to know how to order a voter roll and how to get the maximum benefit out of it.

The upcoming training session offered by the Nashville GOP has to do with fundraising and campaign finance training. Raising money is important. Learn how to do it. Knowing how to file a campaign finance report is also very important. One does not want to run afoul of the law.  In addition to the legal liability, filing a faulty campaign finance report can make the news and be a campaign liability. Also, should one give their campaign money or loan their campaign money? There is a difference.

I have taken several campaign training classes over the years. All I have taken were non-ideological. They teach skills and do not proselytize a point of view. So, if you are a traditional Regan Republican or a Democrat or of some other political persuasion, learn the skills regardless of who is teaching them. After all, it doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.

You’re Invited: Build to Win — Free Political Fundraising & Compliance Workshop We’re excited to invite you to Citizen Activate 2026’s Build to Win: Political Fundraising and Compliance Training, a FREE Brunch & Learn workshop designed to give present and future candidates, campaign teams, and volunteers practical tools to build the financial support needed to run strong, effective campaigns.  BUILD TO WIN Political Fundraising & Compliance Training Saturday, August 29, 2026 9:00 AM – 1:00 PM CST Delta Hotels Nashville Airport 733 Briley Pkwy Nashville, TN 37217 This event is FREE to attend, and brunch will be provided. We’re bringing together experienced professionals for a hands-on training focused on two of the most important—and often most intimidating—parts of running a campaign: raising money and staying compliant. RSVP Featured Speakers Carlos Cardena — Leadership Institute Carlos will lead our political fundraising training, providing practical strategies candidates and campaign teams can put to work immediately. Jessica Darby — Political Financial Management Jason Baker — Political Financial Management Jessica and Jason will provide campaign compliance training tailored specifically to   Tennessee and help attendees better understand the financial and reporting   responsibilities that come with running a campaign. During the workshop, you’ll learn: Current political fundraising trends and how campaigns raise money today How to practice strong donor stewardship and build long-term support The Arc of the Ask — how to confidently ask for contributions Real-world lessons from a candidate panel sharing fundraising experiences Campaign compliance training tailored specifically to Tennessee  Who Should Attend? This workshop is ideal for candidates preparing to run for office, campaign managers and team members, and volunteers helping build and support local campaigns. Whether you’re preparing for your first campaign or looking to strengthen an existing campaign operation, you’ll leave with practical tools, clear strategies, and greater confidence in your fundraising and compliance efforts. Space is limited, so reserve your spot today by clicking the link below. We hope you’ll join us for a morning of training, brunch, and practical campaign education. RSVP

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AMERICA'S PERFECT BUDGET STORM

Ralph Bristol

by Ralph Bristol, independent write-in candidate for Congress in Tennessee's 4th District - The tax and spending plans in today’s U.S. law would be sustainable, were it not for our perfect storm: Interest on past borrowing + the tax gap + fraud and overpayments.  A perfect storm can’t be stopped, but it can be survived.

In recent days, I have written columns and recorded videos describing and documenting, as closely as possible with the most reliable sources available, the tax gap in the U.S., the cost of fraud and over-payments, and the cost of servicing our debt.

• The latest documented tax gap was $696 billion

• Fraud and overpayments added up to $530 billion

• The latest year’s interest on the debt was $970 billion. (We’ve paid $827 billion in the first nine months of this fiscal year. It will be over $1 trillion by the end of the year.

Together, the three elements of our perfect storm are as large as this year’s deficit, which will top $2 trillion. You can’t defeat a perfect storm. You have to survive it. 

Even the most heroic efforts will make only a small dent in the tax gap, fraud, and over-payments
(waste).  Every politician swears to fight against fraud and deficits, and everyone loses that fight. The war on crime, the war on drugs and the war on fraud and waste are all noble, but their victories always have been and shall always be shallow.

To survive this perfect storm that is slowly at first, and one day, suddenly, destroying our nation’s fiscal house, we all must make some sacrifices, and the sooner we start, the smaller those sacrifices need be.  If we wait until the fiscal house crumbles, the cost will be much higher. 

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

That means we have to accept less, not more, help from the government, especially in the areas of health care and income security.  

The plans offered by Democrats, and especially the insurgent DSA wing of the Democratic Party, would rapidly accelerate the rate of destruction of our fiscal house. Piling the cost of everyone’s healthcare, childcare, college education and housing to the already huge deficit would be more weight than the borrowing power of even the richest country in the world would be able to bear. 

The only Republican plan is to stop Democrats from being elected, but in order to do that, they are also offering more, not less, help from the government. Both parties give lip-service to the deficit from time to time, but the solutions they offer are whimsical, nonsensical, or both, and even they are sparce, compared to the expensive things they promise, and often deliver. 

It will be extremely unpopular to inform the general population about the nature of U.S. government finances and the only plausible deterrent to a debt crisis, but somebody’s got to do it.  The perfect storm has formed. There is no stopping it, but we can survive it. 

It will require a fairly extended period of austerity, which will impact some people more than others, but Americans are still fairly philanthropic and will help those who need it most, especially those who need it through no fault of their own.  

Voluntary austerity will necessitate Congress and the president first admitting to and clearly explaining the need, and then implementing moderate reductions in the financial help the federal government gives us, partly through the tax code but mostly with direct spending on healthcare and income security, by far the largest elements of government spending. 

Noone wants to do that. Politicians don’t want to do it because they know you will hate and/or fear it. Some of you will protest, some may even riot.  Many politicians who vote for austerity will be voted out of office. That scenario has played out, and is playing out, in many other countries. Those countries have already experienced the debt crisis looming over us, and are still trying to recover. Those countries all waited until the world would no longer loan them money before they acted, making the recovery much more difficult.

The U.S. needs to act before that happens.  U.S. debt is no longer the most secure debt in the world. The U.S. no longer holds a top-tier rating from any of the three major agencies — a handful of other countries (Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, a few others) still carry AAA/Aaa ratings from all three.

Our Treasury Department will have refinanced about $9.7 trillion in maturing securities during fiscal year 2026. That's up from $9.1 trillion refinanced in FY2025. Because our debt has become less secure, the bond market has raised interest rates, even though the Fed has delayed raising the one short-term rate it controls.  As the government finances that nearly $10 trillion in debt this year, it is doing so at higher interest rates than the 2% it was able to enjoy while it was piling up most of the debt in the early part of the 21st century. 

Sooner or later, our government will issue some austerity measures, the least popular thing for any government to do.  It usually involves both spending cuts on healthcare and income security, and tax increases on most middle and upper-income earners. Tax increases produce more layoffs, so most of the austerity must come on the spending side, from healthcare and income security, to have any chance of fixing the fiscal house.

We can do that voluntarily, before the debt crisis, or we can be forced to do it by a debt crisis. With the latter, the austerity measures will have to cut deeper than if we do it voluntarily before a debt crisis. 

WRITE-IN RALPH

I am offering myself as an independent write-in candidate for Congress in the 4th district of Tennessee, as a way to try to introduce this unpopular truth into the campaign in at least one of the nation’s 435 congressional districts, in hopes that more people running for Congress will be asked to discuss it, and challenged to discuss it honestly. 

I was tempted to call it an “inconvenient truth,” but it’s more than inconvenient. The sacrifices necessary to put our federal government back on a sustainable fiscal track will require more than a little inconvenience for a lot of people. Inconvenience is substituting McDonald’s coffee for Starbucks. Sacrifice is giving up both and brewing coffee at home, stocking up when it’s half-price, or maybe even giving up coffee altogether. 

Nobody wants austerity. I don’t want austerity, but our federal budget – borrowing nearly 30 cents of every dollar we spend – running up a $40 trillion debt with just interest on the debt topping $1 trillion this year - forces me to prescribe it to defend against something worse.  

When our government is forced, either by the belated admission of the advancing perfect storm or by the arrival of the storm, nearly every person and business in America will have less buying power. I suggest you prepare for that, best you can.

The irresponsible budgeting that has taken place in the first quarter of the 21st century has left us with a problem that far too few people will be willing to face until the storm arrives.  Multiple forecasters have warned us that the storm is arriving, although no-one can say when. So, the vast majority of Americans will ignore the warning, and the most likely outcome is that a debt crisis will do what politicians refused to do -- force a much fiercer form of austerity, in the form of either deep spending cuts, tax increases, runaway inflation that shrinks buying power, or all of the above, and while the storm is building slowly, when it hits, it will be nearly instant, leaving you no time to prepare.

The time to cut spending, moderately, on healthcare and income security, is now – in all government programs, regardless of their clientele, from the richest to the poorest, the oldest to the youngest. That’s not a popular message on which to run a campaign for Congress, but like I said, somebody’s got to do it, so I am. 

If you believe this is an important truth that needs wider distribution, please follow me on Facebook or X.  Please share or repost some of my videos or essays, and if you live in the 4th Congressional district, please write in my name, Ralph Bristol, instead of voting for one of the major party candidates.  Every vote counts for something, and if you vote for me, it will count for truth about our federal budgeting. 

Thank you.

Ralph Bristol is the former long-time morning talk radio host broadcasting on Supertalk 99.7 WTN. He was one of the less provocative and bombastic of conservative radio personalities, more thoughtful and grounded in conservative ideas. He left talk radio in 2018 and retired. He lives in Nashville. 

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Deficit OnTrack for $2.1T as Tariff Refunds Outrun Collections

By Brett Rowland, The Center Square, Aug 13, 2026 – The federal government paid out more tariff money in July than it collected, a reversal that has driven this year's deficit $200 billion above what budget forecasters projected six months ago.

The Congressional Budget Office now estimates the deficit will reach $2.1 trillion in fiscal year 2026, $200 billion above the agency's own February projection, according to its monthly budget review released this week.

Treasury's own books point the same direction. The department's monthly statement, released Wednesday, projects full-year receipts of $5.48 trillion against $7.54 trillion in outlays, a gap of about $2.06 trillion.

Customs collections are running about 60% below what CBO projected. In July, Treasury refunded $33 billion in tariff duties against $25 billion collected, paying out $8 billion more than it took in.

The widening gap pushes the deficit further from a target the administration has embraced. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly pledged to bring the deficit down to 3% of gross domestic product; at $2.1 trillion, the 2026 shortfall would equal about 6.6% of GDP, based on CBO's economic projections, up from the 5.8% the agency forecast in February and more than double Bessent's goal.

The government is on track to spend more than $1 trillion servicing its debt this year, according to CBO.

The revenue shortfall undercuts a prediction Bessent made the day the tariffs fell. Speaking at the Economic Club of Dallas on Feb. 20, shortly after the Supreme Court ruling, he said the administration would replace the struck-down duties with other authorities.

"Treasury's estimates show that the use of Section 122 authority, combined with potentially enhanced Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs, will result in virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026," Bessent said.

Six months later, tariff revenue is falling. CBO estimates customs collections for 2026 will come in about $250 billion below its earlier projection. The shortfall persists even though CBO's estimate already accounts for the new Section 301 tariffs meant to replace the lost revenue.

The reversal traces to the February ruling. The U.S. Supreme Court found the administration could not impose tariffs under IEEPA, the authority behind most of Trump's first round of import duties. The government has since refunded about $100 billion of the about $150 billion collected under that authority, according to CBO, and shifted the remaining tariffs to other federal laws, a 10% duty under Section 122, then, when that expired July 24, a new round under Section 301.

Tariffs are the main driver of the miss. Against its February forecast, CBO now expects about $250 billion less in tariffs and customs duties, partly offset by about $75 billion more in individual income and payroll taxes. Corporate income tax receipts are also down from last year, a decline CBO ties in part to the 2025 reconciliation act's larger investment deductions, although the report does not quantify how much that added to the revision.

Alex Durante, a senior economist at the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax-policy nonprofit, said tariffs make an unreliable long-term revenue source, and less reliable still right now.

"Both the Section 122s and Section 301s are under the scrutiny of the courts and may not survive their challenges," he told The Center Square.

The administration has argued that stronger economic growth will narrow the gap; in his Dallas remarks, Bessent credited the administration's policies with driving "trillions in new investment" into American manufacturing and strategic sectors.

Durante was skeptical: "It cannot be a long-term solution because the debt is on an unsustainable path."

The administration has not said what its current tariffs cost U.S. households or what share of imports they cover. Independent analysts have tried to fill that gap: the Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs will cost the average household about $900 this year, and Yale's Budget Lab puts the figure near $1,100.

Treasury's monthly statement projects a shortfall of the same magnitude but did not address whether the department stands by Bessent's February prediction. Neither Treasury nor the White House responded to questions.

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Some Really Good News From the Recent Primaries

by Rod Williams, August 12, 2026- A couple of days ago, I wrote about how pleased I was that Trump-endorsed lapdog Congressman Andy Ogles was defeated in his bid to win the nomination to run again. I was pleased because a Trump endorsement was not enough to convince 5th District Republicans to vote for Ogles. I was also pleased because Andy Ogles is a despicable person and deserved to lose. Also, Ogles' loss showed that not all Republicans are mindless members of the Trump cult.

The good news just keeps coming. In Minnesota, Mike Lindell, the MyPillow guy, a staunch election denier who had Donald Trump's endorsement, lost his bid to be the state's Republican nominee for governor. How sweet is that? While most Trump-endorsed candidates did win their primaries, a loss here and there shows that a Trump endorsement does not automatically guarantee election victory. There are limits to how low people will go to please Trump. There are still a few decent people and thinking people among Republican voters. MyPillow Lindell was beaten by Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth.  It was not even close. Demuth beat Lindell by eleven points, getting 43.5% of the vote, Lindell getting 32.5%, and another candidate getting 21.4%.

More primary good news comes from the Democrat side.  The far left hit a wall. Establishment-backed David Crowley narrowly defeated Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin governor’s primary. This is only one race and the Socialist won elsewhere, but I think it shows Democrats will only go so far to the left. It may indicate that far-left craziness only has appeal in very large urban areas with a lot of younger voters. Things like defunding the police, abolishing ICE, closing all prisons, and banning Thanksgiving have limited appeal. 

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We Are Facing a Fiscal Armageddon and it is Not That Far in the Future

by Rod Williams, Aug. 11, 2026- If you are not deeply concerned about the pending budget and
financial crisis facing the United States, you are not paying attention. We are rolling downhill like a snowball headed for hell, and it is hard to see any way to stop it. 

In American politics, there are no longer any, or almost no, serious players. There are no adults in the room. It used to be that Republicans were the deficit hawks and the party of small government. That is not so anymore. Republicans were often at a disadvantage because Republicans talked about the need for austerity, balanced budgets, and spending cuts, while Democrats talked about more free stuff. People like free stuff. 

Also, of course, the Republicans became the party of tax cuts. While it is indisputable that some strategic tax cuts can spur growth and pay for themselves, many Republicans have adopted the view that all tax cuts are good. People like tax cuts. With a competing free-stuff party and a tax-cut party, it is hard to find solutions to real-world tax and spend issues. 

Despite the differences between the two parties, for a long time there were still enough adults and responsible people in both parties for Congress to pass a budget. The parties would hash out something that could get passed. The last time Congress passed a full budget on time was 1997, and only four times in nearly 50 years has it completed the appropriations process by the deadline. This persistent pattern underscores long‑standing dysfunction in the federal budget process. To fund the government now, Congress relies on large omnibus spending bills and the frequent use of continuing resolutions.

At this time, neither party is serious about the pending crisis. There are no leaders who will correct misconceptions about the issue of government spending, the debt, and government finances. Instead, they encourage lazy thinking and misinformation. Here are several things people believe about government spending and financing that are simply not true.

• We can balance the budget by cutting waste, fraud, and abuse.
• We can solve all of our financing issues and even expand government with programs like  "Medicare for all" or universal childcare if we would just tax the billionaires.
• Military spending is the cause of our financial problems.
• Social Security is going broke due to the government raiding the trust fund or because of illegal immigration. 

I am not going to refute all of these myths here. I have addressed several of these issues elsewhere.
However, if you believe any of these things, I encourage you to become better informed. 

The Washington Post today published an editorial board article titled, When America’s budget will break, disastrously. It is well worth reading.

The editorial says that "the federal government budget is the largest of any organization in human history, and it's larger than the entire economy of every foreign country except China. In the past, the huge surges in the national debt were largely caused by wars or recessions and were temporary. When the war concluded, or economic growth resumed, debt as a share of the economy would fall. That is not the case anymore."  Now, the debt increases primarily due to demographic trends as the bulk of spending goes to programs that serve an aging population. "The budget deficit as a share of the economy in 2025, during a peacetime expansion, was larger than any year of the 1930s, the decade of the Great Depression." Think about that last sentence: "The budget deficit as a share of the economy in 2025, during a peacetime expansion, was larger than any year of the 1930s, the decade of the Great Depression." 

The article points out that we are approaching three milestones. One, 2030 is the year when federal debt held by the public as a share of the economy will exceed the record set by World War II. The article doesn't elaborate on why that is so alarming, but this is why. At the end of World War II, the US had years of pent-up demand due to a war economy and a shift to military production. Also, at the end of World War II, we really were the "hottest" economy in the world. Much of the rest of the industrial world lay in ruins. We were in a good position to get back on a sound economic footing and reduce the deficit; now we are not. 

A second milestone is that non-working older people are making up a larger percentage of the population. "The year 2030 is also roughly when the ratio of seniors to the total population will reach 1 in 5. As recently as 2008, the ratio was around 1 in 8. Seniors’ rising share of the population mechanically raises Social Security and Medicare costs and pushes them onto a proportionally smaller working population." A third milestone is that 2030 is also the year when the CBO projects that deaths will begin to exceed births. 

All of this paints a picture of doom and gloom, and unfortunately, it is factual. And even this is based on an optimism that there will be no major costly war, or major recession, or major inflation. I do not think that optimistic assumption is justified. I think as the US retreats from the world stage, we will witness nuclear proliferation, and a nuclear exchange will become more likely. 

Interest payments on the U.S. national debt have become the second-largest budget category after Social Security, and are projected to surpass Medicare and even Social Security in the coming years. Also, with Social Security running dry, there will be a greater and greater push to monetize the debt. I think inflation is in our future. 

Also, with the rise of ill-informed conspiracy-minded social media influencers and a public ready to believe wild things, and a distrust of experts, and a contempt for "elites," it is easy to see an electorate more and more inclined to believe nonsense, either of the Democratic Socialist of America variety or the neo-mercantilist and blame-others Trumpian variety. It is easier for many to believe fantasy and crazy explanations than accept hard truths. 

With all of the above being said, I still think we can make a course correction and avoid a fiscal Armageddon. Someday Trump will pass from the scene, and we will again have people who listen to experts and people who are more thoughtful, and we may elect people who are responsible stewards of our economy. We may again elect sensible people who really want to solve problems. A course correction will not be easy. Hard choices will have to be made, and we will have to accept some hardships.  If this does not happen, we are doomed. 

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Happy Anniversary to Ted Cruz Saying Trump "is a Pathological Liar"

 

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Surprise, Surprise: Trump Nominates Loyalist to Office That Would Oversee Reflecting Pool Review

Trump nominates loyalist to office that would oversee Reflecting Pool review

by Meryl Kornfield, Washington Post, Aug. 10, 2026 - President Donald Trump nominated Project 2025 author and former political appointee Dennis Kirk to lead the Interior Department’s inspector general office, raising concerns about the independence of the watchdog that has been asked to review the troubled Reflecting Pool renovation. 

... a “fake and fraudulent watchdog” and a “political puppet” who shouldn’t be in the office overseeing ethics and corruption investigations that involve senior administration officials. ... Greenblatt, who was nominated by Trump in his first term, said Kirk’s involvement would damage the credibility of the office’s investigations ... (link)

Rod's Comment: I am going out on a limb here and bet the review does not find the failed reflecting pool fix was the result of poor workmanship, or riding tons of armored cars over the pool, and does not find that maybe it was not a good idea to give a no-bid contract to Trump's pool guy. I am even going to speculate that the investigation finds the failure of the fix was maybe due to suspected vandalism. What do you think?

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