Nashville’s Real GDP Growth Ranks 2nd Highest in the US

From the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, Dec. 21, 2023- Recently, the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce released data on GDP growth in the Middle Tennessee Economy. This blog post explores these findings in greater detail.

The bureau of economic analysis (BEA) released figures for GDP at the metro and county level December 7th for 2022. GDP or gross domestic product is the value of the output of the goods and services produced by an economy. It’s an important indicator into how the economy is performing and is especially relevant given the rise in interest rates in recent months.

The chart above shows how the economy has performed in the last few years. GDP shrunk in 2020 due the economic shutdown brought by the pandemic and has quickly recovered.

Nashville’s economy was not as impacted by the pandemic-induced recession as much as the nation. A major strength of Nashville’s economy is its diversity which means that the impacts of national recessions are softened in the Nashville region. Recessions are shallower in Nashville and the local economy recovers relatively quickly. The evidence for this ability to absorb recessions is in the next chart.

Real GDP Growth 2021 - 2022
GDP Change from 2021 to 2022 adjusted for inflation
Top 50 Metros with at least 1M in population

How does Nashville’s GDP growth rank?

Looking at gross GDP, Nashville ranks 6th highest growth rate from 2021 – 2022. However, when we adjust for inflation, Nashville ranks 2nd highest in the country with metros with at least 1M in population. (Read more)

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A response to Will Pinkston's attack on the Chamber by Mark Rogers

Mark Rogers

Mr. Disgruntled,


I read your post on Pinkston. Here is my Facebook comment on Will and his opinion of the Chamber.

 Is the Chamber of Commerce really an enemy of Public Education in Nashville? If one believes School Board member, Will Pinkston, then the only conclusion is that the Chamber has a not-so-secret plan to keep Nashville's public school children uneducated.

Pinkston, it will be remembered, is the School Board member who's hostile behavior toward those who dare disagree with him is legendary. His bid for re-election resulted in a wafer-thin victory, suggesting that he does not speak for as many citizens of Nashville who care about public education as he thinks. His attack on the Nashville Chamber, in the form of a response to the Nashville  Education Report {a valuable publication that is worth regular reading} embodies the ugliness of Pinkston's 'my way or the highway' attitude. Worse, it may be reflective of the views of other School Board members and leading members of Metro government, something that could lead to worsening in any consensus for improving Metro Schools.

In his own words: "I am more convinced than ever that the Chamber is an enemy of public education — and frankly, it has been for a long time."

Right. Because greedy capitalists only need uneducated workers with low incomes. Companies like Bridgestone and HCA and Nissan look forward to the glut of $7 per hour workers they are creating by undermining public education. "The fact is the Chamber, through its lack of understanding of public education and lack of leadership in this community, helped to enable poor-performing superintendents for the better part of two decades — while at the same time trying, mostly ineffectively, to destabilize the school board in local elections."

The Chamber lacks an understanding of public education? In my experience, business people, particularly successful ones, understand a great deal about education and about the people in their communities. That is to say, their employees and their customers. "Thankfully, the Mayor, the Metro Council, and the school board are finally on the same page. We’re all working together to lead public education forward, no thanks to the Chamber." I am really excited to see if a reporter will ask Her Honor, the Mayor, if she agrees with her political ally, Mr. Pinkston, about that. "MNPS is going to succeed despite you, not because of you."

I want Metro Public Schools to succeed. But my guess is that Pinkston's ideas, more money and more bureaucracy and less accountability, won't work. More to the point, if the major problems facing Education in Nashville are related to the home, the School Board isn't going to be able to deal with the fundamental problems.

Perhaps, instead of fighting political and ideological wars with people who want to help, Pinkston and his allies ought to reach out and target poverty and homelessness and poor parenting. And they might find that the Chamber can be helpful there too.

Mark Rogers is a prominent Nashvillian active in Republican Party politics and public affairs.

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Housing price and rent control bill advances without Nashville Chamber support

Affordable housing bill advances without Nashville chamber support
 

Jul 8, 2015, by E.J. Boyer, Nashville Business Journal -A bill that could lead to a zoning policy that mandates affordable and workforce housing advanced Tuesday night at Metro Council, despite pressure from the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce to indefinitely defer the legislation.

The ordinance passed a second reading with 27 votes. If it passes a final reading, the legislation would require Metro Planning to submit a proposal to Metro Council within 180 days. 

As originally written, the ordinance sought to introduce inclusionary zoning that required at least 14 percent of units to qualify as affordable and/or workforce housing. An amendment attached Tuesday softens that language, setting 14 percent as a goal to guide planning’s policy, not a mandate. (read more)

My Comment: I am pleased to see the Chamber take a stand. Too often there focus seems to be to advance crony capitalism rather than take a stand for free enterprise. I hope they are not co-opted by buying into a less bad version of a bad concept sweetened with more hand outs for the chamber. For now at least, they are on the right side.

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Bill Freeman: I intend to fight for Davidson County when it comes to jobs and development.

Candidate for Mayor Bill Freeman spoke to a group in Belle Meade today and explained his disagreements with the Chamber of Commerce. I was not at the event but got an advance copy of the speech he delivered. 

I am very impressed. For a very long time, I have had the same opinion he articulated today. Our taxes are higher than the surrounding counties and yet we provide the amenities that make Nashville a great place to live and yet much of the new development and property taxes and sales tax goes to the surrounding counties. I think Bill Freeman hit the nail on the head with this speech. As I score the candidates and decide who I will support for Mayor, Bill Freeman just gained a few points. 

I commend him for issuing a specific policy paper, laying out a well-crafted and documented argument. I want more than sound bites and platitudes and applause lines from a candidate. I hope other candidates will follow suit with detailed position papers on the issues facing our city. 

I am posting his speech in full. The highlighting is mine and I have injected a couple comments in parenthesis. Rod


Remarks of William H. Freeman delivered at E-Spaces Event on Feb. 25, 2015

Bill Freeman

Thank you so much for having me here today. Today, I want to talk about my vision for the future of Nashville and the role each of you can play in that vision. But, first, I want to take you back some 30 years ago. I remember it like it was yesterday.

My business partner, Jimmy Webb, and I had just gone to the bank and borrowed $15,000. We had one employee, one building and a big dream. Thanks to this great community … our dream became a reality.

We’ve built an award-winning company with almost 500 employees that has earned national recognition for environmental sustainability and has been named three times as one of the best places to work in Nashville. We had a dream … just like so many of you in this room have a dream.

You all want what everyone in Nashville wants. A strong community where you can live and work and play. A growing community. A place of opportunity. But a dream without work … is just a dream.

Those of you who are gathered here today are the backbone of our future … the doers … the risk takers … and you get up on mornings like this, you come to work and you make your dreams come true … one long hard day at a time.

The next Mayor of Nashville must be prepared to make the important decisions about the kind of city we are going to be in 10 years or 20 years. The next mayor must be the kind of person who gets up on mornings like this, goes to the courthouse, and fights for the future … just like you do. I want to be that next Mayor.

I think our leaders in Nashville … in business, government and education … need to have our eyes firmly on the future. But, we need to understand and remember what made Nashville great. Our great communities, great schools, great people … music, business and education. We also need to innovate and meet the challenges of today and the future with creativity and determination.

Nashville needs dreamers and doers. Dreamers to challenge us and make us better. Doers to make the art and music … to build the buildings and houses … to teach our children. I think we should have a city government that aspires to greatness … that’s the kind of leadership I will offer as mayor.

I have to tell you, one of the real eye openers for me since I got in this race is how much alike the candidates sound. Now, there are eight candidates including me … and you would think there would be big differences between them. But you wouldn’t really know that from listening to them at these mayoral forums. It seems as if the candidates are being so cautious that they have just decided not to take a position on anything. (Rod's Comment: This is so true. You can't tell one from the other.)

Ladies and gentlemen … Nashville was not built by cautious people. I’m different. I don’t have a cautious vision for Nashville’s future… I have a bold, aggressive vision for the future and over the coming weeks and months I’m going to make clear to you and to the people of this city why I should be mayor.

To be sure, there are beliefs that all the candidates share. We all support better schools, mass transit, safe communities. But just saying that doesn’t make it a reality. Our next mayor must be willing to dream big dreams … and then get up in the morning and do the work.

I realize that schools and transportation are the top issues that most people care most about. But making our schools better and solving our transportation problems are exactly why we need to recruit jobs here because that grows the tax base which supports our schools and allows us the freedom to improve our transportation infrastructure.

And speaking of jobs, I’d like to talk about something that is very important to me in this Mayor’s race. Much has been made, in some circles, about my comments so far in this race about the city’s relationship with the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce.

I want to expand on that a bit today … since you are generously giving me more than one minute to answer a question. First, I want you to understand, I am a product of the Chamber of Commerce. My business partner and I met in the Junior Chamber. Our first banker and lawyer came from the chamber. We found the printer to print our letterhead through the Chamber.

I also believe the Chamber of Commerce does great work in this community. I am a big fan of the Chamber. I’m a big fan of Ralph Schultz, the leader of the Chamber. But there is one area where we differ.

As mayor, I will be a jealous advocate for Davidson County when it comes to job creation IN DAVIDSON COUNTY. Not Wilson County. Not Rutherford County. Not Williamson, Cheatham, Robertson or Sumner. I am not running for Mayor of Middle Tennessee. I want to be Mayor of Nashville. And you can count on me to fight for jobs in Davidson County.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with that. I think that’s what the people of Davidson County have a right to expect from their mayor. With commercial businesses paying a property tax rate of 40 percent, it is clear why the recruitment of new businesses is a top priority of every county in our region. (Rod's Comment: This is true. It cost about $6000 a year just to educate a child. Homeowner's property is assessed at only 25% of value while commercial is assessed at 40% of value. A city can not provide even the most basic of services if all they have is residential property. The two major sources of tax revenue is the property tax and sales tax. The average homeowner does not pay for the services they receive.)

While we are excited for our neighbors and enjoy seeing our entire region thrive, Nashville is left “carrying the water” and footing the bill to a large degree for the entire Middle Tennessee region’s growth and prosperity. When businesses and corporations move their operations to an area just outside of Davidson County, it is not the people of Nashville that are seeing the benefits of additional tax revenues, it is our neighbors.

Let’s just take a moment and put this in context with some charts that I got from the Nashville Chamber (Chart showing Business Establishments) In 1990 Davidson Count drove the region in business establishments. Today, over 20 years later that has completely reversed. Our neighbors are getting a great deal and they know it. That was made clear when the mayor of a city in one of the counties bordering Nashville recently said that, as long as Nashville will allow this to happen, they would be grateful to be a bedroom community and will continue maximizing all the advantages that come with that.

Let’s take a look at employment growth differences. (Chart of Employment Growth Differences) It does not get more obvious than this. The surrounding counties enjoyed growth of almost 100,000 new jobs while Davidson County barely added 20,000. This is an alarming trend. As our neighboring communities take advantage of all that Nashville offers, it is still the citizens of Nashville that are paying for, building and maintaining these world-class venues that first attracted these new businesses to the region. The people of Nashville are the ones paying for the increased demands for infrastructure. In 2014 alone, Davidson County’s estimated cost for highway projects is $1.13 billion. It is the emergency rooms at Nashville’s hospitals that care for the sickest of the sick and the Nashville health facilities and clinics that are caring for the 19 percent of the population that is uninsured.

And when you look at (Chart of Poverty Population) where poverty is concentrated in the region, Nashville has a larger concentration of poverty—0ver 120,000—than the other 4 counties combined—90,000. The people of Nashville are the ones paying for a police force to protect our city, keep our roadways safe and keep the venues that are so popular to out of town visitors a safe place to visit and have a good time. To tie it all together, it can be pointed out that by those businesses locating just outside of Nashville puts additional strain on Nashville’s essential services and other major issues of the campaign, like education.

Let me tell you a brief story here: A while back I met with the Mayor of a city in Williamson County. I asked him, “How many languages are spoken in your schools?” He looked at me with a funny look and said, “Well just 2. Mostly English and some Spanish.”

I had a meeting with Dr. Register and he told me that over 140 languages are spoken in Davidson County schools. This what makes Nashville great—our cultural diversity. But it also shows the real challenges of educating these students with English may be a 2nd or 3rd language. A tough burden on the system.

 As people move to the edges of Davidson County to live, but drive to their work place outside of the county, Nashville is getting used, especially as more residents rent instead of buying and therefor pay property taxes. We pay for the roads, health care facilities, education, etc…. and our neighbors collect the taxes. As this chart so dramatically shows (Chart of Outflow of Earnings from Nashville to MSA) just look at the “outflow of earnings” from Davidson County to the surrounding MSA since 1990.

And what concerns me most is the trend (Chart of NES Active Residential Meters—Flat-line Growth) seen in this chart of how we are moving towards “flat-line” growth in Nashville. While Nashville still feels like the “It City” and that nothing can stop us or slow us down, there are the beginnings of alarming trends that if they continue and accelerate could well see the “bloom off the rose” in Nashville’s future.

And finally, this chart (Chart of Davidson’s Share of Region’s Population) shows dramatically how Nashville’s share of the region’s population since 1950 has dropped dramatically. And these are 2010 numbers. What is it today? 35% of less? I realize that schools and transportation are the top issues that most people care most about. But making our schools better and solving our transportation problems are exactly why we need to recruit jobs here because that grows the tax base which supports our schools, allows us the freedom to improve our transportation infrastructure and provides the funds we need to protect and improve the quality of life in every neighborhood of Davidson County.

I’ve been somewhat amused by the response to my comments. I’ve been called an isolationist by some. Not true. There are certain areas where the region should cooperate. Mass transit is the biggest and most obvious place where we should cooperate. If we want Nashville … and the region … to grow and prosper we must have a meaningful, long-term plan for mass transit. But when it comes to jobs … we are competitors. The point of competition is to win.

I intend to fight for Davidson County when it comes to jobs and development. I intend to win those fights. If we occasionally lose one of those battles … I will tip my cap to the winner … and get back out on the field more determined to win next time. That doesn’t mean I’m picking a fight with the Chamber of Commerce. As I said earlier, I am a fan and admirer of the Chamber and its leadership. I just think this is one area where the responsibilities of the Mayor of Nashville and the Chamber will from time to time diverge.

Frankly, I would like very much to have the support of the Chamber … but I’m not willing to bend on this issue to get their support. I suspect some of the other candidates are willing to tell the chamber … at least privately … just help me get in there and then it will be business as usual. I won’t do that. As we move forward in this campaign I’m going to continue to point out where there are differences between me and the other candidates. I know them all. I like them all. They are good people. I just think I will be a better mayor. I will be ready on day one. Ready to fight for Nashville. Ready to make our schools better. Ready to tackle the tough jobs like mass transit. Ready to listen. Ready to lead.

As I close here and we get to some questions, I want to tell you a story.

I’m just a guy from Donelson who has lived the Nashville version of the American Dream. Grew up in Donelson. I walked to school. Walked to Church. Walked to go fishing in the Stones River. Went to public schools until high school. Graduated from USN. Then came home from college to work in our family business for a time. Left and worked for a time with MDHA and then Jimmy Webb and I started Freeman Webb 36 years ago with one apartment building, one employee and a big dream. I’m proud of that … but I’m still just a guy from Donelson who worked hard and lived the American Dream – and I’d like to be your mayor.

Thank you.

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Nashville Chamber says School Board needs training to end divisiveness.

by Dave Boucher, The Tennessean, Dec. 16, 2014 - The Metro school board needs training so it can better understand its own policies on unity and stop "freelancing," according to an education committee report by the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce.

The board's divisiveness could harm the district's ability to attract a new superintendent, so the board should hire a new district leader after Nashville picks a new mayor, the latest edition of the chamber's education report card also concludes.

"Over the past year, it is clear that the Metro school board has struggled to articulate a common vision for the school system," the report reads. (read)

My Comment:  There is something that really rubs me the wrong way about this.  Why should the unelected Chamber of Commerce tell elected officials in essence to sit down and shut up and keep their opinions to themselves. Now, don't get me wrong I almost always disagree with Amy Frogge, Jill Speering, and Will Pinkston.  I would like to see them each replaced with someone like Elissa Kim, but we cannot expect an elected board to all speak with one voice. In any elected body there is going to be more than one point of view or they are nothing but a rubber stamp. If we want a board that all speaks with one voice; if we want "unity," then maybe we don't want an elected board.  At one time Metro's school board was appointed by the Mayor and confirmed by the Council. If that is what the Chamber wants then the Chamber should say so. It is arrogant and condescending for the Chamber to tell elected officials they need training in being less divisive.  While I am not a fan of Frogge, Speering or Pinkston, I would applaud them if they told the chamber to stick it where the sun don't shine.

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Nashville Chamber Backing Charter Schools

Nashville Chamber Backing Charter Schools
A Nashville business group has put a priority on advocating for charter schools. more>>

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Chamber Should Refuse Subsidy, Avoid Conflict

NASHVILLE  - Today, leading opponents of the proposed property tax increase on Metro Nashville taxpayers released a statement on the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce's endorsement of the plan. Talk radio host Ralph Bristol, Nashville Tea Party founder Ben Cunningham, Nashville business owner Lee Beaman, and Justin Owen of the Beacon Center of Tennessee said the following:

 

Yesterday, the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce publicly endorsed Mayor Karl Dean's 13 percent property tax hike. This is unfortunate for many of its business members who will undoubtedly face a significant increase in their tax burdens, and it also raises a serious question about a conflict of interest.

 

Under the mayor's budget proposal, the Chamber will receive its annual subsidy of $300,000 from Metro taxpayers. In order to avoid a perceived conflict of interest, we are calling on the Chamber to officially refuse this handout. In its statement, the Chamber pointed to the need to raise government employee salaries and fund our schools as justification for the tax increase.  Refusing its $300,000 subsidy will help ensure that every dollar of the proposed tax hike goes to fund those programs the Chamber claims warrant the tax hike in the first place, rather than to boost its own bottom line.

 

Further, it is imperative that Mayor Dean withdraw proposed funding to any private entity that endorses the tax hike to likewise avoid any conflicts of interest.  This will ensure that no taxpayer money is used by private parties to push for a tax increase based on their own potential benefits.  It will also guarantee that the debate over the need of this tax increase remains transparent and without such conflicts.

 

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Nashville Chamber supports Gotto's land use planning bills

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