Can Democrats flip Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District?

by Rod Williams, Oct. 31, 2025- The short answer is probably not, or it's not very likely, or it's a long shot. Bruce Barry, writing in the Tennessee Outlook analyzed the district and says, "Although it wasn’t redrawn until 2022, if you look at how the 2020 presidential race would have turned out in the 7th district’s current configuration, Joe Biden would have lost it to Donald Trump by 15 points, while in 2024 Kamala Harris lost to Trump there by 22 points." Further analysis by Barry shows that it would almost take a miracle for Aftyn Behn to beat Mark Van Epps but Barry doesn't say that. 

Anyone who follows politics could have reached the same conclusion as Barry and intuitively known it is a long shot for a Dem to take the 7th. Barry explains why and looks at some numbers. I don't know that a more moderate candidate could have had a better chance running against Van Epps, but I think Democratic primary voters chose the weakest of the field. I might have been tempted to vote for a more moderate Dem, or at least would have considered it. 

This is what Aftyn Behn thinks and wrote in 2019, and I think it shows how out of touch she is with the people she wants to represent: “Tennessee is a racist state. Racism is in the air we breathe, permeating the Tennessee State Capitol, codified in the legislation being passed at the detriment of women, communities of color, and the working poor.”

 I don't think this attitude is going to attract people who are not already predisposed to vote for her. Winning is about attracting people, not pushing them away. It is about addition, not subtraction. I am sure she thinks someone with my views is a racist. Despite my desire to see a House of Representatives that would be a check on Donald Trump, she does not make me want to vote for her. 

As Republicans continue to embrace Trump populism and move further to the right, instead of Democrats trying to recapture the center, which should be up for grabs, they move further to the left. Of course, that is where the energy is; there are few raging moderates. 

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