With Marjorie Taylor Greene's Announced Resignation, the Behn-Van Epss Seat Becomes Even More Important.

Republican Matt Van Epss and Democrat Aftyn Behn

by Rod Williams, Nov. 25, 2025- The TN-07 special election for Congress has been getting lots of national attention. I must have seen half a dozen podcasters report on the race and several mainstream news outlets. Also, a lot of out-of-state money from independent groups is pouring into the race. Total independent expenditures by Democratic groups has reached $1.9 million so far and Republican groups have injected $2.4 million into the race. (1) The race has taken on a lot more importance with the announcement that Marjorie Taylor Green is resigning from Congress on January 5th. 

There is widespread belief that Democrats will retake the House in the midterms on November 3, 2026. Something like 20 House Republicans have already announced they will not be seeking reelection.  There is a possibility that the House could switch earlier, if things go right for Democrats. Part of things going right is Aftym Behn winning the upcoming Dec 2nd election. 

Republicans currently hold a 219-213 edge in the House of Representatives. With Green vacating a seat, the split will be 218 to 213.  There are two other special elections to fill vacant seats scheduled to take place soon, and Democrats are heavily favored in both races. One is in Texas to replace the late Representative Sylvester Turner who died in March, and the other in New Jersey to replace Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, who last week resigned from her seat in the House of Representatives. The Texas special election is set for March, while the New Jersey race is set for April. (2) If  Democrats win these two seats in addition to the Marjorie Taylor Green seat being vacant, the split will be Republicans 218 to Democrats 215. If this happens and Aftyn Behn wins the TN-07 seat split would be 218-216. 

If that happens, then it only takes two Republicans to follow Marjorie Taylor Greene's example and retire early for the House to split 216-216. Punchbowl News is stating that "a few other GOP members" are "considering retiring in the middle of the term." (2) Should this happen it would lead to a power-sharing arrangement. If three resign early, the Democrats gain control. While this scenario is unlikely, it is possible. This is why so much national attention is being focused on a race that until recently was considered a solid, safe red seat and not worth spending money on. 

I feel pretty confident that the TN-07 seat will stay Republican. With revelations that Behn supports sex change treatments for children, supports defunding the police, and hates Nashville, I think her chances of winning have decreased. If Democrats had chosen a more moderate candidate, I think the chances of flipping the seat would be much greater. 

Even if Democrats do not retake the House, a slimmer Republican majority means that it takes fewer disgruntled Republican House members to cause headaches for the Speaker. It means it is harder for the Speaker to hold up legislation that a large portion of the House wants to see the light of day. It takes fewer Republican defections for committees to conduct meaningful oversight. 

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