Sunday, February 04, 2024

Trump’s lead over Biden may be smaller than it looks

Consider only the highest-quality polls, and the Republican’s advantage melts away 

The Economist, Feb 4th 2024 - If America were to hold its presidential election tomorrow, Donald Trump would be picking out curtains for the Oval Office. The Economist’s polling average puts him up by 2.3 points over Joe Biden nationwide. And across the six swing states expected to decide the election—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—he leads by an average of 3.8 points. ... pollsters with the best records of accuracy show better results for Mr Biden. In contrast, their lower-quality counterparts give Mr Trump the edge. ... to those who maintain that pollsters’ historical accuracy predicts future accuracy, Messrs Trump and Biden are in a dead heat. (read it all)

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