Friday, November 18, 2011

Less Climate Alarmism may Lead to Rational Discourse

While the science of global warming has recently been reaffirmed in a study lead by a former skeptic and while global warming seems more of a certainty than ever before, something else is also going on. The sensational and alarmist forecast of the ill effects of global warming are being scaled back.

One study, soon to appear in Science, concludes that the climate sensitivity (that is, how much the earth temperature will rise as a result of doubling of carbon Dioxide) is projected to be about half of what was previously reported by the IPCC.

Another report from the IPCC says that there is "low confidence" that tropical cyclones have become more frequent and that there is "limited-to-medium evidence available" to assess whether climatic factors have changed the frequency of floods, and "low confidence" on a global scale even on whether the frequency has risen or fallen. This new report also says it is only "likely" that anthropogenic influences are behind the changes in cold days and warm days. (link)

This is a positive development. It seems like the professional skeptics and the histrionic alarmist are both loosing ground and maybe there can be a rational discussion about how to deal with this issue.

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