Friday, November 10, 2023

Run Joe Manchin, Run!

by Rod Williams, Nov. 11, 2023- I am pleased to see Joe Manchin announce that he will not be seeking reelection to the Senate. First of all, for the obvious reason, that West Virgia is almost certainly likely to elect a Republican to fill that Senate seat and flip control of the Senate to the Republicans. West Virginia is deep red. Trump won every county in the state in the last presidential race in West Virgian and carried the state 69% to Biden's 30%.

Currently, the Senate is split 51 Democrat and 49 Republican. A one seat flip would make the Vice President the one to break a tie in an evenly divided Senate. Should the next president be Donald Trump, that would mean the Senate would be controlled by Republicans.  Even if Joe Biden should be elected, with an evenly split Senate, it would be easier to thwart a Biden agenda. Also, however, there are a couple other states were flawed Republicans lost to Democrats in Senate races and those seats may very well be recaptured by Republicans. It is highly likely that Republicans will retake the Senate. A Republican taking West Virginia's seat makes it more likely. 

The other reason that I am pleased to see Joe Manchin announce that he is not seeking reelection is that this may mean he will run for President as a third-party candidate. He has been active with the No Labels movement and there is speculation that he may run as that party's candidate, if the No Labels movement becomes a political party and runs a candidate.  With the election just a year away, I don't know if there is time for a third party to get on the ballot in all fifty states but it there is sufficient time, I think a third-party candidate could be viable this time.  I know it has been unsuccessfully tried before. We have had failed third-party attempts in recent history with Ross Perrot in 1992 who garnered 19% of the vote, Ron Paul in 2008 who got an insignificant 0.3%, and Ralph Nader in 2007 who got 2.7%. This time feels different.

Polls show that the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden are almost evenly split. Trump, however, is leading in critical battleground states, and it appears that if the race were held today, Trump would win. However, polls also show that people do not want a Trump-Biden rematch. An NPR-Marist poll found that 65% of voters don’t want Biden to be president again and 60% feel the same about Trump. About 1 in 6 voters or 14% don’t want either candidate to win. 

A majority of Democrats (68%), Republicans (57%) and Independents (78%) in a recent Harvard-Harris poll said they wanted “another choice” beside Biden or Trump. Another poll found that 49% of Americans would consider voting for a third-party presidential candidate if the 2024 election is a Trump-Biden rematch. That is phenomenal! Yet, Biden has no challenger in the Democrat Party and the Republicans attempting to challenge Trump are not gaining traction. The time is ripe for a third-party challenger.

I like Joe Manchin. Should he run as a third-party candidate, I would have to look more closely before saying for certain that I would vote for him. It would depend on the platform of the party and who was the VP candidate.  However, if he were to announce, my vote would be his to lose. It will be a cold day in hell, before I will ever vote for Donald Trump.  I think he is a narcissistic, bully, want-to-be dictator. If the race is between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, I may not vote, may write in my own name, may vote for a minor third party, or may even vote for Joe Biden. I do not see any circumstances that could cause me to vote for Donald Trump.  I would like to have someone to vote for. It could me Joe Manchin. I hope he runs. 

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