Wednesday, November 04, 2020

I hope and believe Trump will win but if he doesn't, holding the Senate and securing the Supreme Court are reasons for celebration.

by Rod Williams - The election is too close to call. However, Trump's odds of winning are looking good.  Don't despair; just wait and see.

 If Biden does win don't despair; we will survive. We have held the Senate and the majority of the court are originalist jurist. That is something to celebrate even if we lose the presidency.  With Republicans holding the Senate, Democrats can't pack the court. None of the major initiatives of the Democrats can be passed with Republicans holding the Senate. No Medicare for All. No Green New Deal. 

Biden can do a lot of damage with the House and a pen and a phone, but not major damage and in two years Republican will likely retake the House. Biden could screw up foreign policy but with peace breaking out in the middle east, I doubt he would want to do anything too radical. 

He could put us back in the Paris Climate Change Accord. It was not a treaty to begin with so getting back in would not require approval by the Senate. In any event the accord was mostly symbolic and could do little good or little harm. It is also a failure as few countries have met their greenhouse emissions goals. While President Trump made a big deal about getting us out, that was mostly symbolic also.  It is a meaningless agreement with no enforcement mechanism and getting back in is no more significant that was getting out. 
Biden could put us back in the Iran nuclear deal. That deal gave Iran billions of sanctions relief in exchange for agreeing to curb its nuclear program. It also released Iran's assets that had been frozen and it also returned to Iran money, with interest, that that country had paid the U.S. for arms that were never delivered.  The Iran deal was not a treaty.  The Senate did vote on it but it was not a vote to ratify a treaty.  A positive vote by the Senate would have kept us out of the deal.  That vote failed.  When Trump got us out of the deal, the U.S. had already released or had unfrozen something like $1.8 billion dollars to Iran, so the major immediate damage was already done.  Iran got the money to wage war against their neighbors and improve their non-nuclear armaments. It is still a bad agreement but getting back in will have no immediate bad consequences. The worst of the bad consequences had already happened by the time Trump got us out of the deal. Also, we will not be much worse off, because Trumps go-it-alone policy cannot keep Iran from going nuclear.  So, while I would prefer we not reenter the deal, it is not that consequential. 

Biden may allow more illegal immigration. He is not going to tear down the wall. He will probably raise taxes. One of the worst things he can do is to restore the massive volumes of regulation that micro manages our lives and binds the economy. He will likely reimpose most of the Executive Orders and agency rulings put in place under President Obama and undone by President Trump. So, we will have minor set backs if Biden wins the election but mostly we will have gridlock for four years and in the first two years he can do the most damage, but not too much. 

Don't despair. I still hope Trump wins and I believe he will but holding the Senate and securing the Supreme Court is reason for celebration even if he doesn't. 

So, if Biden wins don't lose your dignity and take to the streets and fall to your knees in anguish like Democrats did four years ago. It is not that bad. We wouldn't do that anyway. We are adults; not snowflakes.

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