Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Maybe the "Blue wave" will be more like a Blue ripple.

The closely watched Arizona congressional special election where Republican Debbie Lesko was running for a vacant seat against Democratic candidate Hiral Tipirneni was won by Lesko. The vote was 52.6 percent to 47.4 percent for Lesko, a 5 point margin.  Lesko was expected to win the seat in a heavily Republican district that Trump won by a 21 point margin. Pundits had said that is Lesko did not win by double digits then Republicans were in trouble for the fall election. She did not win by the margin Republicans hoped for but I am pleased she didn't lose.  While five points is not the 21 point margin Trump won by it is not a close election.  I think this signals that the "blue wave" may not be a tsunami after all but a blue ripple. If Democrats take the House, of course, they still pick the speaker, chair all the committees, can start the impeachment of Trump, and hold up the Republican agenda.  A less strong win, however, will not carry all the way to governor offices and city council races across the nation the way a massive Democrat win would do.

If Tipirneni had won that would have created euphoria and contagious enthusiasm among Democrats. Tipirneni outspend Lesko in Arizona.  A Tipirneni win would caused Democrats to pour even more money and volunteers into races across the country and Republican money and enthusiasm would have been suppressed.

Closer to home, Marsha Blackburn has gained 7 points on Phil Bredesen in the past week. And, this is after Bredesen spend a ton of money. Bredesen has been presenting himself as a moderate and touting his record as mayor of Nashville and Governor of Tennessee.  While Bredesen is not Mr. Personality and is not very good at glad-handing and back-slapping and kissing babies, he is an attractive candidate and was a good governor and mayor. He is probably the best candidate the Democrats could possibly find.  According to a recent poll by Mason-Dixon Polling, 46 percent of voters support the Democrat Bredesen, while 43 percent support Marsha Blackburn.

I don't know the number of undecided in the recent poll, but I would assume this early it must be high.  This early, a 4% margin is not significant. If you are reading this blog, you probably care a lot about politics; most people don't.  Most people don't even think about who the candidates are or who they will vote for this far out. A lot of people don't start thinking about how they will vote until about 30 days before the election.

It is a long time until November and a lot can change.  More dirt could emerge on Trump, he could do something really stupid, and his trade war could materialize and cause the economy to tank. On the other hand, it could look like we have finally reigned in North Korea, nothing of significance has still not been proven on Trump or maybe the investigation has come to a close without any evidence of Trump- Russian collusion, and people may be enjoying their fatter paychecks.

I still expect Democrats to gain in the fall and Republican to lose. We may lose the House, but the Blue wave may be a Blue ripple.

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