Tuesday, November 08, 2016

I am not disappointed that Hillary is going to be elected

The election will be tomorrow and I fully expect Hillary Clinton to be elected. Polling is pretty accurate these days, and I have no reason to believe the polls are wrong. I am not terribly unset that she will be elected, given the choice.  I think we had a choice between two evils and one of them was going to be elected. We had a choice between really, really, really bad and really, really, really, really bad. Someone on a Facebook meme said a vote for Trump was the equivalent of passing a bill to find out what was in it and someone responded and said a vote for Hillary was the equivalent of passing the worst bill ever introduced but at least you had read it and knew what you were getting. I think that about sums it up. The way I feel about a Hillary election is that, the devil you know may be better than the devil you don't know. 

While I wish we had a Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz being elected tomorrow, since the choice is between Clinton and Trump, I am not disappointing it is Hillary.  One thing that makes me optimistic about Hillary being elected is that there will be no honeymoon period.  She will not be able to immediately push through her agenda. She gets elected severely weakened. She takes office with most people thinking she is untrustworthy.

The FBI Director has said he stands by his July decision that her level of recklessness did not rise to the level of indictment. That does not negate the fact that she was terribly irresponsible with classified information, that she committed perjury by lying to Congress numerous times, and that she destroyed 32,000 emails after they were subpoenaed by Congress.  Those issue do not go away by virtue of her election. This is not over.

Also, the investigation of the Clinton Foundation continues.  Wikileaks further confirmed what we already knew about the pay-to-play scandal and the interaction of the State Department, Clinton Foundation and Bill Clinton's personal enrichment. That scandal is not going away.

I would not be at all surprised if Congress appoints a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton's alleged misdeeds. It is not likely but possible that President Obama will pardon Clinton before he leaves office. If Obama does not pardon her, it is possible that Clinton will pardon herself. If she is pardoned that would keep her from going to jail, but would further diminish her stature and reputation.  All but the most zealous of liberal partisans would conclude she is a crook. An aggressive investigation of  Clinton would most likely result in some of her closest confidants flipping to save their own skin. I expect more and more wrong doings to come to light.  I fully expect that she will be impeached.  So, the good news is that Hillary will be on the ropes for a long time and severely weakened. She won't be able to push forward an agenda.

Another reasons that I am not terribly disappointed with Clinton getting elected is that it appears Republicans will hold the House.  The Senate is too close to call, but if the Republicans can hold the Senate then her agenda can be totally frustrated. If we lose the Senate, of course, Hillary will be able to appoint a Supreme Court judge.  The most persuasive argument that made me almost persuaded to vote for Donald Trump a time or two, is that I did not want Hillary appointing Supreme Court justices. If we hold the Senate, the Senate can just refuse to confirm her appointees.  There is no requirement that the Supreme Court have nine justices and I think there is a compelling argument that we would be better served by an even number of justices than an odd number of justices on the Supreme Court. If Republicans fail to hold the Senate then I expect Republicans will regain it in two years.  While one liberal justice can do a great deal of damage to our country, I do not see her getting the opportunity to appoint more than one.

Another reason that I am not terribly upset with Hillary's election is that I am really glad Trump is not being elected. A person who makes wild inflammatory Twitter tweets at 3AM may have too little self control to be trusted with his finger on the nuclear button. I am also concerned by Trump's comments about NATO and his seeming unconcern about nuclear proliferation. When it comes to foreign policy I expect Hillary to continue the timid policy of Obama, but I do not expect her to weaken NATO or let a hot temper and big ego lead us into wars.

I also trust Hillary more than Trump when it comes to trade policy.  Tump's position on trade scares me.  I know that Hillary jumped on the anti-trade bandwagon herself during the campaign, but I believe she lies and panders and does not really believe her own rhetoric; Trump does. Trump has pledged to impose a 35% tariff on vehicles and Carrier air conditioners imported from Mexico, he has promised to build a wall the length of the southern border and make Mexico pay for it, he has promised to defeat the Transatlantic Trade Partnership, and to renegotiate or terminate NAFTA.  These actions will surely be met with retaliatory actions.  One of the top two or three causes of the great depression was high American tariffs imposed on imports and retaliation from our trading partners.  I fear Trump would start a trade war that would lead to the Second Great Depression. I trust Hillary with trade policy more than Trump.

If Hillary was beating a conservative Republican, I would be depressed about the outcome.  Hillary, however. is beating the ultimate RINO.  She is beating someone who may be more liberal than is she.  Until a few years ago, Trump was a registered Democrat. Throughout his career he has contributed more money to Demarcates than Republicans. Until fairly recently he was pro-abortion and pro-gun control. Trump has been more specific than Hillary about how he wold expand and grow government. Trump has advocated so-called equal-pay-for-equal-work, a new child care entitlement, a new parental leave entitlement and bailing out students burdened by student debt. While Hillary promised a $250 billion massive public works project, Trump has proposed  $1 Trillion in public works spending.  Hillary may be the conservative in this race. If Trump is elected it is doubtful Republicans would oppose his agenda; Republican will oppose Hillary's agenda.

The final reason I am not disappointed that Hillary is going to be elected is that I think, even if he won, Trump would be bad for the future of the Republican Party.  I do not want a  Republican Party that can spend more on pubic works than the Democrat Party.  The Republican Party has traditionally been the party of free trade and lower tariffs. I have not change my view. I can not feel at home in a protectionist Republican Party. I do not feel at home in a Republican party that advances new entitlements. I am surprised at how many Republicans jettisoned every thing they ever once professed to believe in, to support Trump. If the Republican Party is to be a mirrored reflection of the Democrat Party, then I will just retire from civic engagement. I want the Republican Party to be the party of small government and fiscal responsibility.  That is not what Donald Trump offered.

Also, Donald Trump set a tone that belittled and offended women, Blacks, Muslims, Hispanics and the disabled. That is not the way you grow the Party. I do not want the Republican Party to change its core believes in order to compete. I do not want us to try to be as politically correct as the Democrats. I do not want us to pander and buy votes.  However, we must win converts to our political views. If we alienate people, then they are not even going to care what we have to say.  By 2043, America will be a majority minority country.  There is not enough angry white men to win future elections. By losing this election, Republicans can regroup and reflect and decide who we want to be.  I think Donald Trumps defeat was a blessing in disguise for the Republican Party.

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