Thursday, September 16, 2021

There is no reason three Republican House seats could not be carved out for Davidson County.

by Rod Williams, Aug. 23, 2021- At the last meeting of First Tuesday, First Tuesday host Tim Skow made a presentation and displayed the map shown on this page. What the map shows is that there are Republican voters in Davidson County and they are clustered in contiguous neighborhoods.  This should make it possible to create rational house districts that are winnable by Republicans. 

We know that Davidson County is a Democrat county.  Davidson County and Shelby County are the only two islands of blue in a red sea that is the state of Tennessee.  Davidson County, however, while predominantly Democrat, is not totally devoid of Republican voters. In the most recent presidential election, Trump got 32% of the vote in Davidson County.  In Hagerty's race for the U. S. Senate, he garnered 34% of the Davidson County vote and in the race for governor, Bill Lee won 36% of the Davidson County vote.

If Republicans represent about a third of the voters it seems reasonable that about a third of the statehouse seats should be held by Republicans. If these Republican votes were evenly dispersed throughout the county, it would be difficult to create districts winnable by Republicans, but they are not.  

There are parts of town, such as the Black districts of North Nashville, the areas around the college campuses, and East Nashville that are overwhelmingly Democrat districts. It is hard to find a Republican in some of these districts. It is a fact that people tend to live in neighborhoods with people like themselves.  So, while there are parts of the county, that are overwhelmingly Democrat, there are also parts of the county where Republicans dominate or where Democrats and Republicans are almost evenly split.

Look at the following map.  This map is a map of council districts and precincts.  Precincts are the subdivision of council districts.  They simply divide a district into convenient voting areas.  They are designed to designate clusters of voters who vote at the same location. There are 162 presents in the county.

This map shows precincts that Trump won and those where he came close to winning and the percentage of the vote Trump received. The number is red is the percentage of voters in that precinct who voted for Trump. 

Here is a close-up of part of the above.

This map shows the same as shown in the first map above with the Republican precincts or precincts where Republicans can be competitive colored in.  Don't hold me to the boundaries being exact, but it is a close enough approximation to show that there are contiguous areas of the county that could be carved out as Republican house districts. The districts may have to cross county lines in some cases and may represent voters in Davidson County and some voters from adjoining counties but there is nothing wrong with doing that.  There are many seats in the Statehouse and Senate where the districts cross county lines.

Nashville has had house seats and a senate seat held by Republicans in recent years.  Representative Beth Harwell, Senator Steve Dickerson, Representative Jim Gotto all represented parts of Davidson County. Now, however, there are no Republicans representing Davidson County.  By contrast, Shelby County has three Republicans in the Statehouse.  

There are ten house seats representing Davidson County in the State House of Representatives. Redistricting could carve out at least three seats winnable by Republicans.  It is doable. There is no reason it couldn't be done. I will be disappointed it is not. 

Also, see  the following: 

It would not be hard to dilute Democratic votes in Nashville by splitting them up among several districts.

 Metro Planning Readies for Redistricting, Launches Website and Survey

Bloomberg Law says Republicans could split Davidson County into four districts, endangering Cooper’s hold. I say, "Do it!"

Stumble Upon Toolbar
My Zimbio
Top Stories

No comments:

Post a Comment