Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Bush might be right on Iran,

but then who will believe him?
The Tennessean, Friday, 11/02/07

The Bush administration has two major obstacles to overcome in dealing with an increasingly dangerous-looking Iran. The first is Iran's nuclear ambitions. The second is the Bush administration's own lack of credibility, from the way it handled Iraq.
To continue reading: Bush Might …

My Commentary
This editorial nailed it. We have a dilemma. It seems clear that Iran is a threat to world peace. It is clear that Iran is pursuing a nuclear program that they claim it is for peaceful purposes, but which few believe. The Iranian President has called for wiping Israel off the face of the map. We cannot allow Iran to become a nuclear power.

However, after the Bush history of lies and manipulations that led to war in Iraq and the mess created by that adventure, who can trust Bush’s leadership, integrity, or wisdom?

On the other hand, the moral of the story of The Boy who Cried Wolf is not that there is never a wolf. What if Bush is exactly right about Iran? If Iran is on the verge of getting nuclear weapons, we don’t want to wait until they have nuclear weapons before we decide to take action.

A few months ago, William F. Buckley, announced his split with Bush and argued against a preemptive air strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. "If we find there is a warhead there that is poised, the range of it is tested, then we have no alternative,” said Buckley. “ But pending that, we have to ask ourselves, 'What would the Iranian population do?'"

I would not be surprised if we wake up some morning soon to find that we have bombed Iran. I hope not. At some point, that may be necessary. But I will not believe it is necessary if done by this administration. I will be distrustful of any pre-emptive strike by this administration, unless they can prove it meets the Buckley test.

The intelligence community says Iran is about five years away from having a nuclear weapon. Again however, how can we trust the intelligence community, since they got is so wrong on Iraq? If we can assume the intelligence is right, then there is time to wait. I hope the intelligence estimate is right and Bush will leave Iran for the next administration to deal with.

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